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  • K-V Pharmaceuticals - One Of The Best Risk/Reward Scenarios You'll Come Across [View article]
    As promised, we said that we would "continue to monitor the story for positive or negative developments related to the bullish or short thesis" on K-V Pharmaceuticals (OOTC:KVPHQ). We've been informed by a third-party that the U.S. Senate may take their month-long recess at the end of today's work session.

    After speaking with someone from the Majority Health Policy Office for the HELP (Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions) Committee, we’ve confirmed that the Senate is scheduled to break for recess at the end of the work day - 5:00 P.M - on Friday, August 2 (for all intents and purposes, August 5). The Senate’s month-long summer recess was originally scheduled to begin on August 5, and extend through September 6. (http://wapo.st/17mBN7q) Furthermore, as of right now, the Senate is only scheduled to meet for nine days in the month of September. (http://huff.to/17mBN7s)

    In light of this news, we are concerned that it will not be able to pass Bill S.959 (http://1.usa.gov/17mBN7t) before the September 12, 2013 Chapter 11 deadline that we discussed in our report, “New Information Sheds Additional Light on K-V Pharmaceuticals Bankruptcy Story.” (http://bit.ly/17mBKIU)

    Holding onto K-V shares at this point proves to be a much riskier proposition than it was at the time of our article. At this point, the bullish thesis depends on an equity committee being formed in order to delay the Chapter 11 confirmation process. We have significantly pared back our long position and will consider going short if we determine that the bill will not get passed by the Senate before this weekend.

    If K-V is able to resurface on the other side of the current Chapter 11 proposal, we will certainly revisit another bullish thesis. Ultimately, we do feel that Bill S.959 will pass.
    Aug 1, 2013. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • K-V Pharmaceuticals - One Of The Best Risk/Reward Scenarios You'll Come Across [View article]
    First let me premise that this is a high risk trade with a huge payoff with a small amount of capital if a few things pan out. But unlike many chapter 11 plays at least this has a glimmer of hope.

    1. The converts want a better deal. I believe they actually voiced their opposition during the reorg process. All they would care about is potentially recovering equal or more of their capital in a new plan. I expect their could be some dilution but a payout could include cash and stock. Stock has value even with significant dilution. Remember, the converts only get a small fraction of their original investment back under the current plan.

    2. I am not sure what leverage management has if a new plan actually makes current creditors whole. Equity holders may have some room to stall the process.

    3. The House is not in the picture yet. This story depends on the Senate vote which may or may not happen soon, but the bill has been hotlined. If the senate passes the bill soon you can almost be sure that you will see a new plan submitted by an equity committee. A lot here depends on the definition of "regulatory decision."

    4. Yes judge is behind current plan, but if the circumstances change he will have to consider the new facts.

    5. Why do you assume that only a bank is a viable financing candidate. Hedge funds and special situation funds make risky bets all the time. Market share has went from virtually nothing to 15 in 6 months. Why assume that they won't get to 30%?
    Jul 30, 2013. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • K-V Pharmaceuticals - One Of The Best Risk/Reward Scenarios You'll Come Across [View article]
    TST does a horrible job outlining both sides of the story, If they were not bias they should have talked about the bullish and bearish view.
    Jul 30, 2013. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Duff Brothers Seeks To Increase Stake In Frozen Food Express To 100%: Under Board Review [View article]
    Today the Duff Brothers agreed to acquire FFEX for $2.10 per share. The takeover comes on the heels of our ET call which was acquired for $33.75 by CRM. The takeout price of $2.10 for FFEX was dead on the low-ball takeout price that we mentioned in our article, which leads us to believe business is not going so well for FFEX.
    Jul 15, 2013. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Site Visit To Cleantech Solutions Reveals A Busy And Robustly Growing Operation [View article]
    Pleasant surprise with CLNT guidance!
    Jul 2, 2013. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay A Long Way Away From Longwei Petroleum [View article]
    an update for you...Longwei Petroleum (LPIH) Dismisses Legal Action Against GeoInvesting Et Al.
    Jun 28, 2013. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay A Long Way Away From Longwei Petroleum [View article]
    an update for you...Longwei Petroleum (LPIH) Dismisses Legal Action Against GeoInvesting Et Al.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 28, 2013. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Longwei Petroleum: The Most Brazen China-Based U.S. Listed RTO To Date [View article]
    Longwei dismissed lawsuit.

    http://bit.ly/1alE21h
    Jun 28, 2013. 10:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responsys: Last SaaS Standing [View article]
    JMP raises MKTG target from $14 to $18
    Jun 21, 2013. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responsys: Last SaaS Standing [View article]
    Billy, IL sales growth is very low.. less than 5%. Do you know why?
    Jun 17, 2013. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responsys: Last SaaS Standing [View article]
    Stock.. looks like the entire SaaS sector is getting a lift from the ET deal. The same situation occurred when ELOQ was acquired.
    Jun 17, 2013. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responsys: Last SaaS Standing [View article]
    hey, Thanks for the question:

    In a nutshell, when looking at MKTG as a potential investment or acquisition target it’s important to see how its operations could be manipulated to bring it more in line with some of the characteristics of its comps. What MKTG loses on the gross margin, it makes up at the pre-tax margin. MKTG spends less on marketing expense. So top line growth could probably be dialed up. More on this, possibly in a follow up article after we perform additional DD.

    Remember, we are saying that MKTG EV/S multiple should stand at around 5, not necessarily 8, which is the takeout multiple of ET and ELOQ comps.

    Using an EV/S of 5 equates to a price of $19.78 or $18.6 if total liabilities are included in the EV calculation.

    A reasonable EV/S of 4 equates to a price of $16.25
    Jun 17, 2013. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unlocking Value At Magnetek [View article]
    HI Nick, Link is no working
    Jun 13, 2013. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unlocking Value At Magnetek [View article]
    NIck, I am curious why you have not mentioned

    1). company is exploring alternatives to enhance shareholder value

    2). The recent 13D activity that disclosed an offer to acquire the company at $16.00 that should provide a floor for the stock. The 13D investor scooped up more shares on some recent weakness. Management is also adding shares.
    Jun 12, 2013. 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hey! Don't Forget About The Little Guys [View article]
    Nice article. $TIS is currently a GeoBargain. I think TIS makes for a great acquisition target. Keeping with your dividend logic you should look at $CECE.
    Jun 11, 2013. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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