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  • Fears Continue to Subside as Positive Data Kick-Starts August [View article]


    which hens might those be? and just where are they planning to roost?
    Aug 8, 2010. 11:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fears Continue to Subside as Positive Data Kick-Starts August [View article]


    #1. ICSC-Goldman's same-store tally -- store sales Y/Y + 3.9%

    #2 Redbook - store sales Y/Y + 3.0%
    Aug 8, 2010. 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Consumer Confidence Highest in Over 2 Years [View article]

    Thanks Artful,

    Indeed it has been fun to watch the cynics for the past year. As you may know, observing the cynic vs. the optimist has been a lifelong past-time of mine.

    Dave, guess which lot in general ultimately succeeds?
    Jun 15, 2010. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett on U.S. Economy: 'Significant Improvement' [View article]


    Yes we have been tracking that trending spreadsheet for almost a year now and the linear trend line so far has been spot on.

    Interestingly it mirrors the ISM manufacturing index improvement for the same period that we also have been tracking closely on our blog...

    For an independent look at consensus estimates for the current period reported this coming Friday, have a look here:

    This is not a matter of "anything being possible", rather at this point the trending yields a forecast of significant net U.S. jobs growth that is "highly likely."
    May 3, 2010. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales Best Since 1963 [View article]

    Thanks for you thoughtful comments Justin.

    J-dub, "never" is a strong word.
    Apr 26, 2010. 01:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Banking, Coffee, Movies and Chips: Another Spate of Positive Earnings [View article]


    Seems this earnings season has finally made believers of many, many gloomsters. (Or at least quieted the chatter) Once non-farm payrolls continue net positive for several months, there really will be no place else negative to point to... with the exception perhaps -- commercial real estate -- which still seems quite sluggish even to me...
    Apr 22, 2010. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Million New Jobs in 2010? [View article]
    Notsosmart and Gedankonomist,

    Well over 100K of the net new jobs last month were from the *private*, non-government sector. If you read the last year of my articles -- particularly those on the manufacturing rebound in the U.S., there is absolutely no basis to implications that the labor turnaround is attributable to only government jobs.

    Private sector employment is now ramping swiftly in this recovery cycle. Just ask your local or regional manufacturer (with no government ties).

    Apr 9, 2010. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Spending Now Likely Fastest in Three Years [View article]


    Always enjoy your comments. You do understand my shtick here right? Many believe that because my blog only reports the positive, that I personally don't read (or even comprehend the negative)

    Anyway, no I don't know anyone who has just bought a brand new luxury liner... however what is most impressive to me anecdotally recently is that 6 of my friends who have each been looking for work in various industries for 4+ months, have each found quite satisfying full-time positions in the past month.

    None of my quite extensive network of friends/contacts have been laid off since the first of the year to my knowledge.
    Mar 14, 2010. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Previewing Friday's Employment Report [View article]


    As always this is a great representation of the sources of the data and science available for our analysis. And yes, employment is likely the most "loaded" of political/economic measures.

    In looking at all the data, I choose to apply occam's razor to the data. To me that means a simple linear trending extrapolation of a trailing 12 months of the BLS results. The predicted result is extremely accurate -- almost 100% so when the 100K error band is applied.

    I agree that you are being too bearish. The simple trending approach points to net jobs growth in tomorrow's report and extending well into 2010...

    See the chart here:
    Mar 4, 2010. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Case-Shiller Shows Home Prices Continue Seasonal Improvement [View article]


    The point of the "Good News Economist" blog is to offset (in some small way) the negative bias that exists in mainstream news media outlets. That bias is set in place by their own admission. Bad news is what sells -- and for the most part is what their editors deem as "newsworthy."

    In good times and bad, the mainstream media (and the stories you read there) lean strikingly toward the negative.

    Our premise is anti-institutional media based and represents our protest to a society that glorifies (and buys) newsworthy negativity.

    So... in good times and bad, the good news economist blog will always lean strikingly positive....

    Eldon Mast
    Feb 28, 2010. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case-Shiller Shows Home Prices Continue Seasonal Improvement [View article]


    Thanks for continuing to read our alternate 180 degree perspective. Indeed it is the moto of our website... "WHEN ALL YOU READ IS GLOOM, TURN HERE FOR A MUCH DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE."

    User 152125,
    Congratulations on the sale of your home. You may not have read our article several months ago that points to several other markets that are red-hot... Malkiel without being too glib there are indeed many more "miracles" happening out there as we speak... perhaps not in your local MSA, but in almost half of them across the country...

    Feb 26, 2010. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Misguided Economists Say Unemployment Rate Has Peaked [View article]


    You must not be looking very far. I've personally had 6 close friends find full time work in the last 3 weeks... all at different small businesses all in different business segments.

    Will SMBs owners continue to be cautious, sure... but to say none of them are hiring is just flat out incorrect.

    Feb 12, 2010. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misguided Economists Say Unemployment Rate Has Peaked [View article]

    Have a look hear for the top 100 companies to work for. Look closely and you'll notice they indeed are hiring.... rapidly.

    and its not just big business that is hiring again...

    Gloomsters, you've had your day and the sky is brightening. Time to look outside, not at your broken models of doom.
    Feb 12, 2010. 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Factory Orders Continue Steady Rise [View article]


    If you have a look at the chart, the data does not support your claim.
    In fact if you go back 3 years we are now even above those levels seen as far back as Dec 2006. Not only are we at those levels, but the momentum of new orders is accelerating.

    Feb 5, 2010. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Prices Firming as Consumer Confidence Grows [View article]


    First off: Thanks for reading and commenting and the enjoyable repartee.

    Secondly, The Good News Economist is a blog, not a person. You -- like many -- associate me as the editor and blog writer as the "Good News Economist" and I foster that myth to a certain extent by signing my posts as GNE, but the primary goal is that the GNE blog is a "place" where there is no gloom and doom -- not a person.

    Thirdly, your simile that "A "good news economist" is like a "good news" weatherman cheerfully forecasting tomorrow's weather to get everyone in a good mood and everyone goes out the next day shoveling a foot of "partly cloudy and sunny"" -- is a fun visual, but misses on what the intention of the GNE attempts to do... I will be the first to admit that any forecasting that is done on the blog can sometimes be wrong. However, if you fairly assess what has been forecast over the last year, you will find only one or two "misses."

    For the most part what you will find at the blog is selective "silver lining" articles. They don't attempt to forecast, only point out what is positive in today's climate. We can argue whether or not their is a shadow inventory, but whether or not there is one, the fact remains that the article points out firming prices (no matter how select the individual markets) and rising consumer confidence. Those are the silver lining facts. And they attempt to offset that gloom and doom you will find elsewhere.

    Thanks again for reading.

    Eldon Mast
    The Good News Economist
    Feb 1, 2010. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment