The Good News Economist

Data Continues to Forecast a Jobs Recovery

And just in from today's wire: 2,127 mass layoff events (at least 50 workers) in October. That's down 434 from September - and down 77 Y/Y. For those who follow this number closely, that is a huge decrease M/M... about as good as it gets during recovery.

Data Continues to Forecast a Jobs Recovery

David,

I totally agree with your "personal feeling" point. In fact, when I went through the layoff cycle personally about 10 years ago that was exactly my experience. My personal "depression cycle" lasted until I found that next job... (and even months after that until I was certain that the new employment represented a stable income and lifestyle...)

During that recovery for me, it was several months after new job creation began in the economy at large until I found my next gig... but what was abundantly clear at the time was that I would never find my next deal unless I stayed extremely positive and upbeat... a devil of a feat for anyone who has had to do it...

UPS and Fedex Will Need 64,000 Additional Holiday Workers

Thanks for the additional details on this William...

so running some very rough numbers...

20 hours a week
10 bucks an hour
Next 6 weeks
64000 workers
equals?

$78,800,000 gross

Surely doesn't make 78 millionaires, but buys a lot of weekly groceries for those doing without right now.

Foreclosure Rates Continue Their Steady Decline

<img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">


@Thomas,

>Being in the business as a builder, property manager and
>landlord, I submit that the housing situation is nowhere near a
>satisfactory conclusion..

I too am a property manager and landlord in multiple markets across the country. I certainly agree that the housing situation is nowhere near a satisfactory conclusion, however it has clearly started to improve significantly since spring in many markets.

I reject the notion that there is this phantom wave of foreclosures waiting to slam the market... if that is the case just what are the bankers and their agents waiting for?

As a landlord since the 80's, I have not experienced (nor can I imagine) a better time than now to increase my holdings in residential rentals.

@j-dub,
When you look at mortgage resets charts, just remember that with rates at the levels they are now, that resets actually turn out to result payments and rates LOWER than what was set at origination. The doomster charts on ALT-a resets always fail to factor that "minor" landscape change... these ain't your father's ARM resets.

Local Media Agrees: U.S. Housing Outlook Improves

j-dub,

Whether or not they are artificial will remain to be seen... but what IS seen (by main street at least) are improving conditions.

Local Media Agrees: U.S. Housing Outlook Improves

Yes Dave.

Did you bother to read the second paragraph?

U.S. Job Growth Likely by December

Thanks Larry,

Yes indeed I do tend to err on the side of being a bit too optimistic, rather than the pessimism that I see everywhere else... it is one of the basic principals of the blog.

It has again fascinated me to see the psychology of this recession as compared to that of the early phases of recovery cycles in 70s and 80s... and I would agree that several times the picture back then seemed worse. It is amazing to me that today those times and similar experiences are long forgotten by most and replaced with an almost egotistically assertion that this time the cycle is somehow much different and much worse.

James Grant on WealthTrack: Surprisingly Strong Recovery Ahead

James Grant is right on again, particularly with the concept of the "errors of pessimism and optimism"... much of his analysis is based on studying emotion and its effects on markets... many who completely rely on "fundamentals", data, and charts, are completely baffled when emotions take control.

Q4 Growth Likely to Be Stronger than Q3

William,

Thanks for the comment.

One of the stalwart measures for me is the ISM manufacturing index... I've continued to point to that Index as a superb indicator of what is really occurring in the overall US economy grow-wise - not just manufacturing. In addition to reporting the manufacturing sector conditions, the ISM's PMI index has a very impressive track record in GDP growth correlation. A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Back on September 2 when their September report was released, I was able to headline that growth was likely already at 3.7% annually... very much in line with the government estimate published this Thursday for Q3. Looking at the latest ISM index the PMI for September (52.6 percent) it corresponds to a 3.6 percent increase in real GDP annually. November's report (for October) will give us a concrete early indication of what is in store for Q4. If the latest NY Empire index is any guide, the PMI will be up sharply in Oct.

Additionally US businesses and industries are nowhere close to burning through the 700B of stimulus dollar put in place. They are just now figuring out how to apply it to their particular processes and procedures. With clunkermania representing only a small $3B of that -- we have a long way to go before all industries including autos make their way through that.

In addition to Amazon -- Intel, Alcoa, JPM, and many others painted very strong business condition pictures in their investor calls. No doubt the homebuyer credit will also be extended well into 2010... And if history is any guide, the strongest economic rebounds have usually been preceded by the deepest lows...

I'll write about more evidence next week...

And thanks for your article today as well!

GNE

Who thinks this Recession is Over?

Steve,

Certainly you've heard the famous Bill Clinton quote: "Well now, that just depends upon what the meaning of the word 'is' IS."
www.youtube.com/watch?...

Are your set of definitions mind numbing or those that the Econ 101 teachers teach? What is your definition of "Real-World people"?
(Some of us entrepreneurs have taken Econ 101 *and* worked blue and white collar jobs for past 30 years)

If we can't agree on the definitions, then anyone can make the data say anything they want it to say. That's why we have CPAs, GAAPs, supreme court justices, umpires, certified auto inspection mechanics, and the NBER.

Everyone knows that following a recession there is negative fall-out. After a great recession there is significant debris and pain. That doesn't change the fact (and collective judgement) that the recession just past is indeed over.

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Bad News Bears Battle Break Neck Bounce

David,

I agree with your comment that nobody knows the future. However, good analysis does not always equate to mere opinion. In my observation specific analysts (and weather forecasters), get the forecast right much of the time, while others fail almost always.

And if you've read my stuff long enough you've heard me say time and time again, when you take economic analysts as a group, "the majority is always wrong." (Galbraith)....

mast-economy.blogspot....

Looking back over the past year, Galbraith was right again.

Roubini: Don't Expect a V-Shaped Recovery

Nouriel,

The V is technically already well formed. Please, please have a seat already...
seekingalpha.com/artic...

GNE

Newton's Third Law: DJIA Poised for Epic Rise?

I do like Hooke's Law as it applies to the chart... probably more than Sir Isaac's.

I am not sure that see the poker analogy. I agree that 70-80% of poker is skill, but I am not sure I agree with that market-wise.

I am more a believer that much of the market direction is based on feelings and emotions... something that good poker players best guard against...

My inspiration for the post originated in the observation of the chart.. not necessarily any physical law...

If one assumes that significant negative emotion led to the 777 point drop in the dow, it cannot be much of a stretch that a equal and opposite upbeat emotion will lead to a 777 point rise.

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Employment Index Makes Monster Jump

Sorry Recusant, but in case you have not noticed, that is what we do. If you want the bad news you can read it elsewhere. The mainstream media by its own admission publish the "bad news" slant. It is what sells. The bad news is usually what is most "newsworthy."

The Good News Economist blog is all about a perspective that is also slanted by its own admission. If it is bad news, it is *not* newsworthy at our blog. "When all you read is gloom, turn here for a much different perspective." That's our by-line.

Don't expect it to change anytime soon.

Adjusted Jobless Claims Suggest the Recession Ended

Mark,

Thanks again for a great post.

For those of us who have lived through this past recession, lost jobs in the last five and are still living the dream, it is entertaining to see the flood of commentary that continues to paint this past recession as so much different from the rest. Is it really? No...
mast-economy.blogspot....

Seems like I've heard all that banter before? Yes, like at least 5 times. ;-)

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com