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  • Real Estate Prices Firming as Consumer Confidence Grows [View article]


    Looks like you watched the Wendy's commercial but did not read the entire WSJ article posted by concrete guy.

    Yes I am in contact with many realtors from across the country. And I have spent significant time on primary and secondary research on this myth. What I find when asking the probing questions with realtors and bankers is that these reports of massive "shadow" inventory are significantly overblown. As the article in the journal notes we are now below a 4 month supply in markets like Boston, Sacramento, San Diego and San Francisco. That is a *sellers* market my friend. As Concrete guy sez: "It's hard to imagine that sellers (particularly distressed sellers) would be holding their homes off the market with inventories this low"... the market I know just doesn't work that way.

    With respect to "spin." By my repeated admission, what the good news economist does is report good news. If you want the bad, you'll need to find it somewhere else. The pay is *not* great at all... it is my own personal blog.

    Yes, I have been awake this whole time. I am just personally tired of the "shadow market" myth... time to put it to bed... And as the little old granny asserts, "I don't think there is anybody back there."
    And my research and first hand observations confirm it.

    Jan 30 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Prices Firming as Consumer Confidence Grows [View article]

    Carlini: The "shadow supply" is just that: a shadow. That drum-beat is old, tired and at this point has no legs.

    As my grandmother would say: "Where's the beef? .... I don't think there's anybody back there!! "

    Nice find concrete guy.

    You are absolutely correct. There is no plausible reason to believe that banks and/or distressed sellers are just sitting on the sideline waiting for some mythical point in time to dump this shadow supply on the market.

    Jan 30 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Income Up 875%, Continuing Major Momentum [View article]
    Short term market movement was all about JPM Chase noise. Nothing to do with Semis. Long term market movement agrees with me.
    Jan 16 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Nice Performance, But ... [View article]

    "Past performance is no indication of future results," however my past experience concludes that the past is the only sure indication we've got... all else is pure speculation.
    Jan 15 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Income Up 875%, Continuing Major Momentum [View article]
    <img class="authors_reply" src="">


    But it sure looks pretty!
    Jan 15 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Nice Performance, But ... [View article]
    Not necessarily. Intel continues to invest heavily in R&D to reduce cost. Additionally they have now a 4 quarter track record of revenues and margins that are on the mark or above. If they are fully valued here, that means a miss to their just released increased guidance. Don't bet on it.
    Jan 15 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Nice Performance, But ... [View article]

    You also neglected to report that they raised revenue guidance significantly for Q1. There really is NO BUT in Intel's results this quarter... indeed this is now the 4th Q in a row that they have crushed... INTC up over 75% since March and AMD up over 300%
    Jan 15 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PC Shipments Rocket Higher in Q4 [View article]


    Not according to Intel. Profit margins continue to be massive. Remember you can continue to lower price if you also lower your cost. Intel continues to invest heavily in technologies that lower chip costs considerably while increasing their performance metrics.
    Jan 15 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Income Up 875%, Continuing Major Momentum [View article]


    Likely AMD will also continue to ride this wave. Since March lows AMD stock is up over 300%... up another 2% in premarket today based on the Intel news....
    Jan 15 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brian Wesbury's 'Mr. Sunshine' Predictions [View article]


    Looking back, the GNE blog did quite well in 2010. A list of 25 predictions and a retrospective look is posted here:

    One of the finest moments was to call the stock market bottom (with associated charts) 3 days prior to the March low. The charts back in 1974 and 1975 gave a pretty good clue of what was about to happen this time around.... Google for "stock market chart 2009 2010" to find that top story or direct link is here:


    Thanks all for reading in 2009.

    Happy 2010.
    Jan 1 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's Job Plan Picks Up Steam [View article]


    You don't have to wait until next year to evaluate any predictions that I may have made in the past year. I will own up to any mistakes, but for the most part, since last November most have been on the mark. The latest limb I've climbed onto was early last month. "Net job's growth will return by Christmas." You'll note from comments in that initial article in early November that most decided to criticize... but indeed the data is bearing it out as we speak. (unless of course you choose to label the data as invalid -- as many do here on SA)

    But perhaps more importantly, I have been clear since my writing began, that the GNE blog is all about accentuating the positive. If you want gloom and doom, you can find plenty of that elsewhere. And plenty of folks will help you see why any data is suspect and that you can't trust the anyone, especially the government -- those dogs.

    The blog is not concerned with trying to paint a balanced or a politically one-sided view... only a positive view, regardless of the extent of negative data or your political persuasion. Obviously when the actual data turns more positive, the task of finding the good news and silver linings becomes much easier.

    With respect to all the jobs data observable currently, it all points to a jobs market that is firming quickly. That is a far cry from losing close to 700,000 a month in March and observing data that was on a trend line that looked abysmal. That trend line turned in Apr and the jobs bleeding has now all but stopped. I really don't care if one says that the Democrats or the Republicans did it, the reality is that net job losses in the US economy have now stopped.
    Dec 10 12:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Continues to Forecast a Jobs Recovery [View article]

    And just in from today's wire: 2,127 mass layoff events (at least 50 workers) in October. That's down 434 from September - and down 77 Y/Y. For those who follow this number closely, that is a huge decrease M/M... about as good as it gets during recovery.
    Nov 20 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Continues to Forecast a Jobs Recovery [View article]


    I totally agree with your "personal feeling" point. In fact, when I went through the layoff cycle personally about 10 years ago that was exactly my experience. My personal "depression cycle" lasted until I found that next job... (and even months after that until I was certain that the new employment represented a stable income and lifestyle...)

    During that recovery for me, it was several months after new job creation began in the economy at large until I found my next gig... but what was abundantly clear at the time was that I would never find my next deal unless I stayed extremely positive and upbeat... a devil of a feat for anyone who has had to do it...
    Nov 20 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UPS and Fedex Will Need 64,000 Additional Holiday Workers [View article]

    Thanks for the additional details on this William...

    so running some very rough numbers...

    20 hours a week
    10 bucks an hour
    Next 6 weeks
    64000 workers

    $78,800,000 gross

    Surely doesn't make 78 millionaires, but buys a lot of weekly groceries for those doing without right now.
    Nov 18 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Foreclosure Rates Continue Their Steady Decline [View article]
    <img class="authors_reply" src="">


    >Being in the business as a builder, property manager and
    >landlord, I submit that the housing situation is nowhere near a
    >satisfactory conclusion..

    I too am a property manager and landlord in multiple markets across the country. I certainly agree that the housing situation is nowhere near a satisfactory conclusion, however it has clearly started to improve significantly since spring in many markets.

    I reject the notion that there is this phantom wave of foreclosures waiting to slam the market... if that is the case just what are the bankers and their agents waiting for?

    As a landlord since the 80's, I have not experienced (nor can I imagine) a better time than now to increase my holdings in residential rentals.

    When you look at mortgage resets charts, just remember that with rates at the levels they are now, that resets actually turn out to result payments and rates LOWER than what was set at origination. The doomster charts on ALT-a resets always fail to factor that "minor" landscape change... these ain't your father's ARM resets.
    Nov 12 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment