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The Good News Economist

 
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  • Hiring Picks Up in May [View article]
    @Old Trader,

    Sorry you missed the memo. If you follow the link in the article you will find the three clear markers that it is quite likely that the US economy is now in a new growth cycle...
    mast-economy.blogspot....

    GNE
    Jun 11 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Week of June Bursting with Good News [View article]
    @Alpha,

    Thanks... interestingly, I have noticed in the past that as the good news continues to mount following a prolonged bear market, the bears get increasingly more grouchy... no surprise... ;-)

    GNE
    Jun 7 09:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pending Home Sales Soar in April [View article]
    @Jimmy K,
    Yes, you read that right. Read the "three indexes" linked in the article to find out why it's clear that the US economy has now returned to GDP growth. You may not see June correctly in the Q2 GDP readout, but you'll get a more clear picture of what has happened when Q3 numbers are posted later this year.
    See....
    mast-economy.blogspot....

    GNE
    Jun 3 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brave Home Buyers and Other Consumers [View article]
    @Yoda,

    Significant upward price momentum is now being reported in many major MSAs across the country. Not year over year, but month over month. Look for an article soon that highlights those markets along with the significant bounce numbers.

    Further, prices are now at levels that cash flow properties nicely in many rental markets.

    May the force be with you.
    GNE
    goodnewseconomist.com
    May 29 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 21 U.S. States See Unemployment Fall in April [View article]
    @Old Trader,

    Of course I see the difference. However turning points become an event when they mark a peak. If one considers what is already a likely peak in initial claims (see the linked article for evidence), then this "seasonally adjusted" non-event may be more than just a blip on your assumed trend continuation. (Also see Christmas Index Layoff reports, Monster Employment Indexes, and Rasmussen Index on Employment, Conference Board leading indicators, etc. all with significant employment conditions improvement)

    @Mr. Ed,
    Of course I understand the data. See the data referenced above in addition to a falling 4 wk moving average on initial claims. (All of those reports have been documented on my blog) I'd be happy to examine your "mountain of evidence" that shows the situation not improving... the data that I've examined closely -- not just the rate data -- points to significant stabilization in the labor markets in the past 2 months combined with significant hiring in a wide swath of industry segments.
    Thanks,
    GNE
    goodnewseconomist.com
    May 28 12:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 21 U.S. States See Unemployment Fall in April [View article]
    @Mr Ed,

    I do understand the data along with probability, statistics, and margins of error. So I'll be sure to let everyone know that if and when unemployment rises the next time by a few tenths of a percent, that it is indeed a non-event.

    Each state statistic above was gathered from a reputable news source from that particular state. They reported the numbers as "falling", just as many jump on the bad news when the rates are "rising."

    And yes, feel free to label me with the "green shoots gang." The data is now overwhelming that this recession is coming to a close (if it has not already).

    If you read my other articles you will see that since November, I've been expecting a return to GDP growth by Independence Day. The fundamentals and leading indicators (including initial claims 4wk moving average) clearly now show that rebound to be highly likely.

    Good Luck,
    GNE
    May 26 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower [View article]
    Graham,

    Here is another simple measure. I bought $10,000 worth of shares in a growth stock fund in early March. When I now look at my statement it claims that those shares are now worth $13,563. It looks like those stocks are UP to me. Even if I adjust for inflation (#3) or annualize (#1), they still seem to be up quite a bit... ;-)

    GNE
    May 26 12:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI: Expect Green Shoots this Summer [View article]
    @Dave Wrixon,

    Hard to believe, but the data just out has unemployment *falling* in Florida in April... with the charts that Steve highlights, I don't expect it will be rising again any time soon...

    GNE
    goodnewseconomist.com
    May 24 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Recession Proof Jobs [View article]
    @Gregman,

    Have a look at this article...

    mast-economy.blogspot....

    These 28 firms are hiring aggressively for over 50,000 additional positions.

    Which industries would you then argue have a "sustainable long-term employment" profile?
    May 22 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Recession Proof Jobs [View article]
    @LilBob,

    Have you had a look here:
    slis.wayne.edu/job-res...

    Congrats on your degree and good luck with your search.

    GNE
    May 22 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Recession Proof Jobs [View article]
    @LilBob,
    Actually I have been speaking to quite a few graduates. As this recent article indicates from CNN, I am not the only one speaking to grads who with some persistance are finding jobs...

    www.cnn.com/2009/LIVIN...

    And imagine that! Some are finding jobs in the "decimated" financial sector...

    GNE
    May 20 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Continues to Come Down [View article]
    @The Raven,

    Thanks. Is interesting to see the VIX now in the 20s. It would not surprise me to see us in the mid-20s for the foreseeable future.

    Thanks for reading.

    GNE

    May 20 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sucker's Rally? Decide for Yourself [View article]
    EDF,

    I agree with you 100%. Glad to hear you were buying in March as well. Many have called me a sucker for too buying then, but I am quite happy with the 30%+ returns.

    GNE
    goodnewseconomist.com
    May 20 01:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • INTC's shares surge despite EU fine of 1.45 billion. That is 4.15% of INTC's last year revenue!! [View instapost]
    The fine will be appealled. It will be a long, long time before we see if and where that fine will be applied to the books. In the meantime Otellini let's us know that he stands by his comments of Q1 being a bottom and that Q2 is coming in better than expected.
    May 14 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Accepts Lowball Price for TARP Warrants [View article]
    Linus,
    Thanks for your papers and these articles raising the awareness. Most of US taxpayers have no idea how valuable these warrants ultimately can be... or even that negotiating is happening on their behalf... thus the lowered payback price. If we can raise the political awareness of these paybacks, the stories may change.
    GNE
    May 14 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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