The Good News Economist

Second Half Growth: Coming on Strong

Recusant,

1. The point is that most economists had forecast a downward revision. Again they were wrong. Q2 numbers were better than expected. As recovery began, many touted a lackluster Q3 and Q4. But a much stronger Q3 and Q4 now appears highly likely.

2. The good news at Dell are not only better margins from cost cutting, but a forecast for a strong second half sales. That is likely a barometer for increased corporate spending. Hundreds of new jobs are now available at Dell and posted on their corporate jobs board.

3. 10% is in the rear-view mirror with respect to unemployment. Much more corporate hiring is now occurring vs. layoffs.

4. There is much more going on in the housing market than first time home buyers. Investors are also swarming in with cash... returns on rental business is at an all time high. Like all housing rebounds we are now seeing price increases moving up market.

5. Have a look at our historical watch of the ISM manufacturing index since the beginning of the year. Also watch it closely on Tuesday to see a manufacturing sector that is now growing again. It has been since June with or without Clunkermania.

Nice repartee, but I'm not moved by your rebuttal.