The Good News Economist

Newton's Third Law: DJIA Poised for Epic Rise?

I do like Hooke's Law as it applies to the chart... probably more than Sir Isaac's.

I am not sure that see the poker analogy. I agree that 70-80% of poker is skill, but I am not sure I agree with that market-wise.

I am more a believer that much of the market direction is based on feelings and emotions... something that good poker players best guard against...

My inspiration for the post originated in the observation of the chart.. not necessarily any physical law...

If one assumes that significant negative emotion led to the 777 point drop in the dow, it cannot be much of a stretch that a equal and opposite upbeat emotion will lead to a 777 point rise.

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Adjusted Jobless Claims Suggest the Recession Ended

Mark,

Thanks again for a great post.

For those of us who have lived through this past recession, lost jobs in the last five and are still living the dream, it is entertaining to see the flood of commentary that continues to paint this past recession as so much different from the rest. Is it really? No...
mast-economy.blogspot....

Seems like I've heard all that banter before? Yes, like at least 5 times. ;-)

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Initial Unemployment Claims Filings Fall to Six-Month Low

Dave,

No -- a falling 4-week moving average for initial claims is good news. There is no bad in that graph, sorry...

Thanks for the chart Mark.

GNE

VIX Continues to Come Down

@The Raven,

Thanks. Is interesting to see the VIX now in the 20s. It would not surprise me to see us in the mid-20s for the foreseeable future.

Thanks for reading.

GNE

Week in Review: U.S. Economy's Green Shoots Now Growing Leaves

@Prudent,

I am not sure how one can be unhappy with a 35% run up! Sorry, but that is "no dead cat bounce!"

I am quite comfortable with my long positions in stock funds and have been since the 70s... my long term successes in investing and the business world are not indicative of a lazy non-thinker.

With huge new investments in infrastructure (read Intel, Cisco, and many others), US innovations will continue to drive a thriving world economic engine.

I am not sorry to proclaim that hope in the future always ultimately prevails over fear of the present. And this time is no different.
mast-economy.blogspot....

Good luck my friend,
GNE

The 'Bull or Bear' Debate Will Be Resolved Soon

@prudentinvestor,

It is not surprising that the author and many, many other individuals and managers have so much cash on the sidelines. Indeed the rally has only just begun and as investor and consumer sentiment continues to turn, the influx of that sideline liquidity will continue to leave many in the dust as this rally continues...
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Good luck,
GNE

Analyzing Consumer Sentiment: Chicago Fed Has 'Proven' Nothing

Good Day Steve,

What about investor sentiment? You may have seen that I've been following both Daily Rasmussen Consumer AND Investor Indexes quite closely in the past six weeks.

mast-economy.blogspot....

I can understand your point on decoupling spending and consumer sentiment, but I'm not sure I can completely disassociate the mood of investors whose collective optimism is continuing to rise by the day...

As of today the Investor Index is now only 3 pts below last year at this time. It's trend line in the past 6 weeks continues to much higher.

GNE

New Bull Market or a Bear Market Rally?

Thanks Marc,

Totally agree with Louis' points and your analysis. It is not the time to "plan to fail."

I've been following the daily Rasmussen Consumer/Investor confidence indexes closely in the past 6 weeks. They both continue to surge higher with no bearish movement since both rocketed higher 3-4 weeks ago...

mast-economy.blogspot....

If that psychology falters, then the rallies will too.... if those indexes keep moving higher, I can't see any significant dips on the near term horizon...

"Brace yourself Effie!"

Thanks again,
GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Wednesday Headline Review: Good News Everywhere

Artful,

You are most welcome. Thanks for continuing to read and comment.

GNE

Five Things That Could Resuscitate the Markets

Always enjoy your writing Rick,

Today I particularly resonate with your observation that:

>If we could get through a week without disturbing news from market-movers
>[snip]... smaller signs of recovery might get more attention.

No doubt some of the signs you list like the significant surges for AMZN and WMRT, along with a large initial claims drop, strong chain store reports for Feb, ISM numbers corresponding to much better GDP numbers, have been reported this week, but nowhere close to the spotlight...

The B indeed is closer... and one has to bet at this point that any one of your first 4 points will help to better define that B.

Thanks
GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

To Reach Bottom, We Need More Good News

David,

I totally agree and am reporting all the good news that I can...
I really enjoyed the spreadsheet... would you agree that perhaps not all elements (rows) on your sheet should be equally weighted?

I'd suggest that there also may be a few additional rows to add to your matrix. Some additional lead indicators like your "initial claims" row.

I question your rating on foreclosures tho, the data is clear that they have slowed appreciably. Additionally, the data I just posted yesterday on credit markets indicates they are quite thawed both on the commercial and consumer sides...

mast-economy.blogspot....

Those are at least two rows that I'd give a (+1) based on current data. (Perhaps there is not yet enough mainstream media spotlighting that data?)

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Caught in the Economic Flywheel

Steve,

As always, I thoroughly enjoyed your article.

You did lose me with these to potentially conflicting observations:

>The survey participants expect economic
>recovery to begin in the third quarter of 2009.

vs.

>It is hard to envision that an economic recovery is
>possible which fails to generate at least 10 million jobs.

Can you expound a bit when you have a moment?

Thanks,
GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Are Things As Bad as They Seem?

Steve,

I really enjoyed the storm analogy.

Way back I used to work for the National Weather Service. It continues to be an interesting exercise to see forecasters vary so widely on their predictions... particularly when the forecast moves beyond a few days...

Hurricanes especially have a "mind of their own". Statisticians pore over the vast amounts of data produced by one storm in the hopes of predicting the path of the next one more accurately... and still the predicted path is wide.

Many times it come down to which forecast model to you put your trust in and what data was used to load its run.

I appreciated also the compilation of indicators. What is your read on ISM report on manufacturing? It appears that while many of the indexes there still point to contraction, many of them for January point to contraction at a significantly reduced rate...
mast-economy.blogspot....

GNE

Global Markets in Review: Fresh Economic Woes Impact Sentiment

Prieur,

Good luck with the day job. We will look for whatever wisdom you can provide within the bounds of your ability to get real stuff done.

Always enjoy your posts and this is no exception.

I do take issue however with you presenting *data* to support the assertion that it "impacts sentiment"

Frequently it is other many other factors that drive a cascading downward spiral... or irrational exuberance to the upside...

Contrary to the tag cloud and many gloomy news headlines, consumer confidence is surprisingly up...
mast-economy.blogspot....

Most other economic indicators can be measured with charts and data. But consumer confidence and sediment is not one of them... it's always elusive... just outside of our analytical reach...

Like it or not, for an explanation of sentiment we need the psychologists... and as you know many of them can't explain the human condition well either...

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

3 Reasons I Think a Bull Market Rally Is Imminent

Sean,

I strongly agree.

Lacking the unexpected, equities have no where to go but up from here.

Liquidity is being injected into the system at a rate never seen. As confidence builds, we'll continue to see activity like yesterday with markets blowing through resistance levels on the upside.

And as firms begin to ADD JOBS at unprecedented rates,
goodnewseconomsit.com/...
an eye to future quarters will only yield the commensurate earnings...

>For over six months, I have stressed that
>we are in a long-term trading market
>that will reward those who are quick
>and punish those who are apathetic.

Keep stressing this for any who will listen,
(some will, but many won't)
...for me this is the golden rule of business.

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com