The Good News Economist

Global Markets in Review: Does the Rally Have More Steam Left?

Prieur,

Again an another enjoyable article. As I examine the last table in your article, I note that we are only off thirty-some percent year over year in several of the indexes.

If the bull move continues at the same rate as the last 5 weeks, we will be solidly in positive territory year/year.

No doubt this bull could continue to be swift and steep leaving many in the dust...

mast-economy.blogspot....

Thanks again for your balanced analysis. Enjoy the Cape!

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

The Tide Is Turning

Great interview Prieur,

Russell is alway so grumpy -- even in the face of an obviously improving optimistic sentiment...

This is no doubt just the first leg of the bull rally of 2009. I've been following the daily Rasmussen Consumer/Investor confidence indexes closely in the past 6 weeks. They both continue to surge higher with no bearish movement since both rocketed higher 3-4 weeks ago...

mast-economy.blogspot....

If they falter, then the rally will too.... but if they keep moving higher, I can't see any significant dips on the near term horizon...

Strong earnings from the elephants in the room this season and positive stress tests will add fuel to the rising optimism...

@_richard_,

This rally has absolutely no characteristics like a dead cat. If there is any kitten to be found right now it is attached to a bull horn.

@mkreisel,

Check the technicals on the last 12 bears as the new bull rise begins... as volume increases with confidence over time the slope higher just increases...

Good luck.

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Global Markets in Review: Fresh Economic Woes Impact Sentiment

Prieur,

Good luck with the day job. We will look for whatever wisdom you can provide within the bounds of your ability to get real stuff done.

Always enjoy your posts and this is no exception.

I do take issue however with you presenting *data* to support the assertion that it "impacts sentiment"

Frequently it is other many other factors that drive a cascading downward spiral... or irrational exuberance to the upside...

Contrary to the tag cloud and many gloomy news headlines, consumer confidence is surprisingly up...
mast-economy.blogspot....

Most other economic indicators can be measured with charts and data. But consumer confidence and sediment is not one of them... it's always elusive... just outside of our analytical reach...

Like it or not, for an explanation of sentiment we need the psychologists... and as you know many of them can't explain the human condition well either...

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Evidence That Big Inflation Is Coming

Great article Adam,

Many have already heard me rant on about the lack of deflation in any of the numbers (save energy and transportation driven by energy/oil decline). Your comments on the money supply are right on the mark and are backup up by the data charts published on the st louis fed data site.

But I don't agree that inflation is coming any time soon. Core prices are likely to remain flat for some time to come... should they rise I'm sure there will be swift corrective action. But there is no evidence in any numbers that it will be needed. The first action of course is to stop adding it in to the system... and then perhaps bleeding it out...

Mish types a long yarn about avalanches, etc... but it's just a story not based on data or historical perspective... just a bunch of what ifs.

Thanks again Adam for a great thoughtful post.

GNE