The Good News Economist

This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower

Graham,

Here is another simple measure. I bought $10,000 worth of shares in a growth stock fund in early March. When I now look at my statement it claims that those shares are now worth $13,563. It looks like those stocks are UP to me. Even if I adjust for inflation (#3) or annualize (#1), they still seem to be up quite a bit... ;-)

GNE

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Really enjoyed all the charts:

Perhaps the next round of THE WAVE is happening today?

;-)
Thanks again,
GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Global Markets in Review: Fresh Economic Woes Impact Sentiment

Prieur,

Good luck with the day job. We will look for whatever wisdom you can provide within the bounds of your ability to get real stuff done.

Always enjoy your posts and this is no exception.

I do take issue however with you presenting *data* to support the assertion that it "impacts sentiment"

Frequently it is other many other factors that drive a cascading downward spiral... or irrational exuberance to the upside...

Contrary to the tag cloud and many gloomy news headlines, consumer confidence is surprisingly up...
mast-economy.blogspot....

Most other economic indicators can be measured with charts and data. But consumer confidence and sediment is not one of them... it's always elusive... just outside of our analytical reach...

Like it or not, for an explanation of sentiment we need the psychologists... and as you know many of them can't explain the human condition well either...

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Deflation Risk Dipping As Stagflation Risk Rises

>Catch a falling knife wrote: "On one hand we have incredible deflation: >people almost giving their cars, boats, motorcycles, etc away."

Thanks BS Detector, for sounding the alarm. I too can't find any of those deals in my local classified or on craig's list or ebay. I have found that everything associated with gasoline or oil or transportation is significantly more affordable than in July. (Other than those items prices are about the same as last year at this time)

"On the other hand, if you go to a discount store or supermarket: can of sardines form Norway, $4.50, toothpaste $3.00, mouthwash $6.50, boneless chicken breast $7.50/lb."

This is total hogwash. Every well stocked Safeway (x3), Albertsons (x2), King Supers (x3), Super Target, Super Walmart, can beat those prices... and has been for 2 years straight.

"This is worse than the Great Depression... "

Falling Knife... have you ever spoken to someone who lived thru the Dust Bowl or the Great Depression? Today's conditions are a cake walk compared to that. If you can't find someone to talk to about it, go read "The Worst Hard Times" for a glimpse into what its like when the economy is failing, your crops are failing and your government is doing absolutely nothing about it.

Good ole Herbert Hoover on his way out the door, "There is nothing more to be done, we have done all that we can do."

Thanks again BS Detector for sounding the alarm and thanks Gregor for getting us going...

Forget the terms deflation, inflation, and stagflation. Just look at the raw prices:

2008 Oil, Gas, Energy Prices: Way up Jan->July, Way down July -> Dec
2008 Transportation Prices: Ditto
2008 Everything else: Flat

Knife, don't know what slanted shelves you've been stockin', but they ain't in my country on the west side of the pond.

GNE
goodnewseconomist.com

Evidence That Big Inflation Is Coming

Great article Adam,

Many have already heard me rant on about the lack of deflation in any of the numbers (save energy and transportation driven by energy/oil decline). Your comments on the money supply are right on the mark and are backup up by the data charts published on the st louis fed data site.

But I don't agree that inflation is coming any time soon. Core prices are likely to remain flat for some time to come... should they rise I'm sure there will be swift corrective action. But there is no evidence in any numbers that it will be needed. The first action of course is to stop adding it in to the system... and then perhaps bleeding it out...

Mish types a long yarn about avalanches, etc... but it's just a story not based on data or historical perspective... just a bunch of what ifs.

Thanks again Adam for a great thoughtful post.

GNE