The Good News Economist

Initial Claims at Lowest Rate Since January as Auto Plants Restart

Good Day Steve!

Yes, certainly there has been much speculation about NSA and SA numbers in the data. Many have simply said "ignore the data" for the next several weeks. As you point out though the first piece of good news is that regardless of SA / NSA anomalies, claim rates are now trending down. My second point here is that it is highly likely that those anomalies are caused by the govt models being screwed up by significant changes to this year's factory closures at non-seasonal times. The good news there is that bk proceedings have moved very swiftly and factories that had been closed at Chrysler and GM will now be (or are) coming back on-line quickly (again non-seasonally).

For those who choose to dismiss the next several weeks of jobs data because the factory restarts are screwing the models, I would simply posit that they should have also ignored the data when the car factories went off-line earlier in the year.

Hope all is well with you!

GNE

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

>So where is the breaking point? A look into the
>why instead of how of this rally can offer some
>insight. This whole rally is essentially a scam to
>pass off asset depreciation in struggling financials
>to the taxpayer.

Do we really believe this conspiracy theory? The reality is that the market has figured out long before us that in fact recovery is here. Like every recovery before it, depressed equities turn up and do not look back. We are now approaching a 35% uptick. That in and of itself represents the fact that indeed this rally IS SUSTAINED. With history as our guide, if we keep saying the rally is not sustainable long, indeed we will get it right... but not this week...
seekingalpha.com/artic...
and probably not this year...
seekingalpha.com/artic...

GNE

Wednesday Headline Review: Good News Everywhere

Artful,

You are most welcome. Thanks for continuing to read and comment.

GNE

Gloom and Doom Returns to the Markets

Actually one down day does not merit the claim that "Gloom and Doom are Returning to the Markets."

In fact consumer and investor confidence continues to gain huge ground... the last two weeks look like this:
mast-economy.blogspot....

And the Rasmussen report out this morning is even better....
www.rasmussenreports.c...

Those are the best readings since Sept...

Five Things That Could Resuscitate the Markets

Always enjoy your writing Rick,

Today I particularly resonate with your observation that:

>If we could get through a week without disturbing news from market-movers
>[snip]... smaller signs of recovery might get more attention.

No doubt some of the signs you list like the significant surges for AMZN and WMRT, along with a large initial claims drop, strong chain store reports for Feb, ISM numbers corresponding to much better GDP numbers, have been reported this week, but nowhere close to the spotlight...

The B indeed is closer... and one has to bet at this point that any one of your first 4 points will help to better define that B.

Thanks
GNE
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