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The Housing Time Bomb  

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  • Simon Property Group Announces New $4.0B Revolving Credit Facility [View article]

    Disagree with Adam.

    Seriously thinking of shorting the piss out of the REIT's.

    The concern here is the Fed's Twist and European funding. The Fed is going to be selling the short end in order to buy the long end of the bond curve.

    As a result, short end rates will rise and this will increase concerns with the REIT's around REPO money and the ability of the European banks to continue funding it.

    This is a huge risk and no REIT including SPG is in good shape. Personally I have SPG on the top of my short list. The chart looks flat out sick.

    Oct 6, 2011. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Downgraded by S&P - We're AA+ Now [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback all!

    From what I can see so far the appetite for stocks based on these comments is far from over which means we are nowhere near a bottom:)

    I look forward to the day where I post and I get 100 comments telling me they will never buy stocks again. That's when I know we have hit a bottom.
    Aug 6, 2011. 07:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Headed for a Major Correction? [View article]
    Thanks all. Speculators got burned this week. Jobs number is huge tomorrow.


    Debt deflation not inflation. Debt deflation is the deleveraging of debts like housing and other debts. This is done via default and foreclosures etc.

    This forces prices lower and slows the economy down in the process. This process is happening right now and can last for years.
    May 6, 2011. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Headed for a Major Correction? [View article]
    Disagree with some of you.

    The stock markets trade on emotion and psychology. Manias and crashes are defined by emotional reactions to stocks..

    Trying to be methodical can be practical but it's usually is the fastest way to the poor house. Discilpline over your emotions is important when trading but psychology and emotions are critical when it comes to analyzing the markets IMO.
    May 4, 2011. 11:30 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs a Good Investment or the Next Bubble? [View article]

    If that's the case then why are the hitting up the debt markets to raise cash?

    Sorry I just don't buy it. If their cash position was so strong then why did the stock plummet to $27 or so in 2008?

    The truth is no one knows how solvent any of these companies are because they refuse to open up their books.

    SHow me their balance sheet and I will become a believer.
    Mar 13, 2011. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs a Good Investment or the Next Bubble? [View article]
    "Housing Time Bomb, the reason that leading p/e ratios are so much lower than trailing p/e ratios is that earnings are expected to improve dramatically--first because operating fundamentals (occupancy rates and rent growth) are expected to strengthen dramatically"

    LOL...That's a funny one. Occupancy rates are abou to strengthen? Based on what? Are you smoking crack?

    Ever heard of Amazon? Bricks and mortal retail is dead and it is never coming back.

    Goo luck with your thesis... YOu need it.
    Mar 13, 2011. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is World Stuck in 'Juggle Mode'? [View article]

    Inflation will not effect home prices unless wages rise. Your "stagflation" hit in the 1970's because the unions were able to raise wages.

    That idea is history these days with unemployment sitting at near 20%. I am not making bold predictions. I am just being realistic.

    Without wage increases housing isn't going anywhere because buyers are unable to borrow the money needed to buy at elevated levels.

    Your "BOLD PREDICTION" of a nominal price rise due to inflation is a pipedream.

    As for your quotes: Obnoxious and irrelevant.

    Carry on
    Feb 10, 2011. 11:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping an Eye on the Bond Market [View article]

    High yields make borrowing more profitable for the banks but it makes it more expensive for a borrower.

    Housing prices tank when rates rise so higher rates are a loser for the banks despite a steeper lending curve.

    Don't buy into that horsecrap. The banks have trillions of dollars in loans that will be toasted as rates rise and more people find themselves underwater on their loans.

    If their balance sheets were clean then this would be a very profitable time for them. Unfortunately this couldn't be further from the truth.
    Feb 4, 2011. 12:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Robots Controlling the Stock Market Strike Again [View article]
    "Really?? Because I been making money every day in this market (I think I had one or maybe two at the most losing days last month). If your a long term investor why would you care what a market does for 30 minutes on any given day??"


    No offense but a chimp could make money going long in this market the way it's trading. The problem is it's unsustainable.

    The Fed is pumping billions of dollars of liquidity into the market almost every week.

    This is great but there are unintended inflationary consequences of such policy actions. Just look at Egypt.

    Being a bull is great when the Fed blows bubbles with zero interest rates until the music stops like it always does.

    I hope you took profits along the way. My guess is you haven't and when this credit bubble pops you will be one of the millions that gets stuck holding the bag.
    Feb 1, 2011. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Spending Collapses in Early January, But So What? [View article]
    "Pessimism keeps destroying investment opportunities"


    Pessimism saved 50% of my 401k when it forced me to sell all of my investments at DOW 14,000.


    I call myself a realist not a pessimest. Nobody wants to see a huge economic recovery more than I do. Unfortunately, the one we are seeing today is nothing but a mirage.
    Jan 15, 2011. 03:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware of the Wall Street Pump Job [View article]

    Well Said above except for the Warren Buffet part. He turned into an oligarch sellout once he bought into Goldman. He has lied more about the economic recoevery than anyone and it started before the bubble burst in 2008.

    He lost all his street credit in my book. Brilliant guy, just crooked like all the rest of that crowd. It was sad to watch him destroy decades of credibility like that.

    The day traders will once again end up being the bagholders and the market will burn itself out like it did in 1999.

    The timing of this scenario is the hard part.
    Jan 4, 2011. 09:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2011 Predictions: Not the Time to Buy a House [View article]

    Econ101 also tells you higher interest rates=lower housing prices.


    The only way you see housing appreciation is by buying housing at high interest rates and then seeing rates drop. People think buying when interest rates are low is the best time to buy.

    It's actually the worst time to buy because interest rates will be rising throughout your home owenership which creates a huge headwind that doesn't allow for appreciation. Credit traders explained this to me years ago.

    I am not trying to scare people. Just reading things the way I see em. I may be a little aggresive on my housing correction call. We will see a year from now.

    Also, keep in mind you live in the land where banker bonuses continue to flow as the fat cats on Wall St binge on houses thanks to large gains in the capital markets.

    I suspect you will see this change in coming years once the market rolls over once again.
    Dec 31, 2010. 09:58 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Refuses to Reflect the State of the Economy [View article]
    Just to be a little more clear here.

    I am not a trader and I have not lost my shirt. My biggest holdings have been long bonds and metals so 2010 was a good year.

    I am not involved in stocks other than a few hedges because I am an investor and this market is retarded.

    The problem here is not corporate profits. They are fine for now. The issue is debt and it's not going away. Take a look at Greece if you want to see what the USA will look like.

    I am not stupid enough to tell you when this Ponzi scheme will un wind. What I will say is the can cannot be kicked down the road much longer.

    The money simply isn't there to continue stimulating the economy via government spending. The only way to sustain it is to print money which has already started via QE. We are getting away with it for now mainly because Europe is in the process of blowing up.

    Have at it and play in the casino and go long stocks. I'll politely pass thanks.
    Dec 29, 2010. 02:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gas Prices Soar: Thanks Ben [View article]

    These treasury purchases infuse billions of dollars into the banks and the money has to go somewhere which is why you are seeing virtually every asset class rise.

    This money printing can't continue because the bond market has had enough of this crap. It will be interesting to see what rates do as we head into next year. If they keep rising there will be a ****storm in the markets.
    Dec 23, 2010. 12:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Listen to Meredith Whitney's Municipal Bond / Default Thesis [View article]

    Glad you are enjoying the blog.

    Fueled and Shleprock gave you your answer.


    Dec 22, 2010. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment