Why The Decade Of Dominance For Cyclical Investments Is Just Beginning [View article]
Well, if you follow hte 4% rule most people wouldn't choose stocks yielding 2.5% or less because they would be reliant on capital gains for income -
The valuation of CAT or others depends on the economic recovery over the next couple years , its ridiculous to definitivaly say a cyclical stock is significantly overvalued or undervalued simply because of trailing PE.
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Well, joking - you hve to actually do some work - relying on management to tell you if dividend cut. This company's stock dropped nearly 50% since dividend initiated - some point iron ore prices droping a rating downgrade or falling cash flow will make cut dividend. This company also said they would never cease bidding fo Alpha natural Resources - they did 6 months later. Iron ore prices dictate polciy not management - crashing.
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Well, credbility of honesty is 1st grade english, let me help. First, your grossly overestimating the likely free cash flow next year by at at least 20%, as said, no position in company at time article published. The company's borrowing costs will also rise if business deteriorates, so the long-term cost of capital has to change the cash-flow dynamic as well. They won't stop or delay projects - that's not how it works - they have labor contracts with unions - you can't just stop a project and not pay anyone - ever heard of contract, unemployment, plus much of the cap-ex is fixed - equipment company 1 year rental, etc.
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Well, you need get out of basement, no stimulus will target real estate and construction in China, these markets overbuilt. EU has housing bubble in Spain, Ireland, elsewhere, won't focus stimulus
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Well, I have no short position, whether or not I shorted Cliffs last month or last is not relevant - my disclosure is at the bottom - sorry if your long - you've been losing money constantly - and if you think this is the bottom you are clueless.
I remember your garbage comments before - Cliffs was at 45- now its at 35- so the stock has dropped 25% since you said I didn't know what I was talking about - and you've lost 25% of your capital in 2 months - but I"m the one not to be trusted.
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Well, article forward looking. I don't know exactly what Irone ore prices will be, what Cliffs sensitivity to prices short-term is (obviously have contract and spot contracts), or what cap ex will be exactly here's what I do know.
I wrote in my second article on SA over a year ago that this market was a bubble long before most people even covered subject.
Cliffs has significantly above average costs that have rose above expectations for several quarters at its North American Mines. The company also is much more exposed to seaborne iron ore market than 25% number indicates - because Chinese demand affects iron ore prices globally - tariffs on steel are common - but not iron ore and minerals. Arcelor-Mittal and U.S. Steel both have given very weak guidance as well, and Cliffs sells most North American iron ore to Arcelor-Mittal - North American Steel market not better
Cliffs cash flow is projected at $1.2 billion with capex of $700 million and the dividend is $300-360 million, but the simple and obvious point the bullish commenters miss is these numbers are obviously too high. Iron Ore negotiations recently resulted in prices dropping 10% since those projectings, and even if th company sells on contract this year, the stock will be priced based on likely future profits, not contracts based on past prices. If Ore prices drop another 10-15% the company could cut capex and pay the dividend - but that's ridiculous - cap-ex projects aren't six month projects, multi-year projects, so management can't afford to just start and stop these projects.
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Well, iron ore prices dropped ove 10% in the last two months - so The company's cap-ex in several mines rising as well. Management made an offer for Alpha Natural Resources at $127 a share, its a $6 dollar stock, I'm not that confident in them. The dividend was based not only on revenues that are falling, but borrowing that will become harder.
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Well, Cliffs dividend almost 80% of projected cash flow next year, iron ore is based off steel, and China affects iron ore prices everywhere. North America weak as China too
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Well, article wrote Cliffs at 45 - same time wrote article linked too - last 3 calls were buy Cummins into earnings, LVS at 39 on investigation, and PM in mid-eighties.
Why The Decade Of Dominance For Cyclical Investments Is Just Beginning [View article]
The valuation of CAT or others depends on the economic recovery over the next couple years , its ridiculous to definitivaly say a cyclical stock is significantly overvalued or undervalued simply because of trailing PE.
Article about future
Why The Decade Of Dominance For Cyclical Investments Is Just Beginning [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
I remember your garbage comments before - Cliffs was at 45- now its at 35- so the stock has dropped 25% since you said I didn't know what I was talking about - and you've lost 25% of your capital in 2 months - but I"m the one not to be trusted.
Why The Decade Of Dominance For Cyclical Investments Is Just Beginning [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
I wrote in my second article on SA over a year ago that this market was a bubble long before most people even covered subject.
Cliffs has significantly above average costs that have rose above expectations for several quarters at its North American Mines. The company also is much more exposed to seaborne iron ore market than 25% number indicates - because Chinese demand affects iron ore prices globally - tariffs on steel are common - but not iron ore and minerals. Arcelor-Mittal and U.S. Steel both have given very weak guidance as well, and Cliffs sells most North American iron ore to Arcelor-Mittal - North American Steel market not better
Cliffs cash flow is projected at $1.2 billion with capex of $700 million and the dividend is $300-360 million, but the simple and obvious point the bullish commenters miss is these numbers are obviously too high. Iron Ore negotiations recently resulted in prices dropping 10% since those projectings, and even if th company sells on contract this year, the stock will be priced based on likely future profits, not contracts based on past prices. If Ore prices drop another 10-15% the company could cut capex and pay the dividend - but that's ridiculous - cap-ex projects aren't six month projects, multi-year projects, so management can't afford to just start and stop these projects.
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]
Why The Decade Of Dominance For Cyclical Investments Is Just Beginning [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: Broken Business Model Makes Dividend Cuts Inevitable [View article]