The Inflection Point

Google's Behavioral Targeting: A Bust?

Hi Erick, It seems as though GOOG and other ad platforms focused on BT advertising are still not employing third party data sources to aggregate data and consumer preferences. You should take a look at interClick (INRK), a company that is growing their top-line 100% each quarter. INRK uses third party sources such as Bluekai to help give advertisers greater transparency and a higher ROI. One to watch for sure, as it remains my top holding in the accounts I oversee. Best, John

Nouriel Roubini, One on One: More Doom and Gloom

Do high oil prices bring on steep recessions? I am not sure that is the case. When oil peaked at $150 the US was already in a steep recession. The defationary affects of housing and credit were the real culprits.

I do agree that oil at $150 made no sense, and that speculation led to that surge. But that eventually corrected sharply and helped lead to decreased oil use. Creating further restrictions in this area may not have the desired effect.

Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital

Veeco Making Waves in LED

Hi Mike, Glad that our picks have been helpful to you. In order to get a feel for our picks on a weekly basis, you should try our four week free trial for our newsletter. You can sign up at: jbhcapital.net. As for the stocks you asked me about, CY looks like it has topped on the charts, SYNA looks to be headed lower in longer-term but for now shorts are trapped. ATML is trendless. Hope this helps. Best, John


On Oct 20 10:18 PM Mike Trienis wrote:

> I've made a lot of money from your picks so far. InterClick (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> in particular, has been most fruitful. Are you looking at any other
> technology companies at the moment? It would be interesting to hear
> your take on companies that are involved in the semiconductor / touch
> screen sector. Perhaps you could take a glance at Synaptics (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> and Atmel Corporation (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).

According to Treasury Spread Model, No Chance of a Douple-Dip Recession

Thanks for the article. Under normal circumstances this theory would have a lot of weight in my opinion. However, this data is skewed because the Fed has been monetizing the debt. In other words they have been buying Treasuries keeping yields on the long end lower than they other wise would be. Therefor this spread is is off to the low side and is throwing off your thesis.

Thanks for the chart though as this will be useful when we get back to normal times whenever that may be.

Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital.

10 Most Important Earnings Reports For This Upcoming Week

Thanks for the correction - sorry about that. C comes out on the 15th. Best, John


On Oct 13 12:02 PM aaavoid wrote:

> isnt C reporting on 15th oct?

10 Most Important Earnings Reports For This Upcoming Week

Nice catch on the Option activity in ADTN. I like the 3 year chart on ADTN and do not have much conviction on the name into numbers. Did just take a small probe on the $22.5 calls expiring this week. We will see. Best, John


On Oct 13 07:57 AM Joe Kunkle wrote:

> Think ADTN going to get hit on earnings judging from recent put buying
> at the Oct 25 strike...

ZAGG: Poised for Big Returns in 2010

Think Ian provides a very strong case for ZAGG. Shorts are only 1 Million of the 17 Million Float at this point and the chart has formed a nice base. I am looking to buy into heavily on a push through $7. Based on Ian's information, I would think that there is a very good chance of this taking place. Good work Ian! Best, John

Today's Bizarro Economic World

Thanks for the chart. Excellent. Amazing how large that drop has been.

Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital


On Oct 07 01:35 PM Wildebeest wrote:

> I just made a quick instablog with a plot of the trade data:
>
> seekingalpha.com/insta...
>

US imports from China

Excellent chart.

Thanks.

Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital.

Today's Bizarro Economic World

Ok no problem. Thanks for the comment.

Tom Henderson, Strategist, JBH Capital.


On Oct 07 01:09 PM max12345 wrote:

> ...and please do excuse the double z (in my various bizzarros) instead
> of the single z (as in bizarre, spelled correctly) which was just
> an innocent mistake or a repeated typo...and was not at all meant
> to make the whole thing any more bizarre than it already is.....

Today's Bizarro Economic World

Thank you for the message. I think that you did leave "food for thought" in the detailed message.

There very well may be various bizarro worlds out there. How a serious trader navigates thse worlds is an important question. I think that awareness is a good start.

I am glad you brought physics up. I took 3 classes in college Physics 1, 2 and 3. That was many moons ago though. Thanks for bringing back the memories! f=m*a

Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital.

Oct 07 12:59 PM max12345 wrote:

> Thank you very much for bringing up and also for defining for us
> reasonably well "Bizzarro World" and what it is. Recently I often
> had found myself asking myself exactly what kind of a World I was
> living in, (and in particular when reading certain Seeking Alpha
> articles) and now you have at last answered this key question for
> me. Or at least you have done so in part. So many thanks.
>
> The only problem I see with your otherwise impeccable argument is
> the fact that there there may be several Bizzarro Worlds which all
> exist in parallel, and not only one. (much as in the concept of Parallel
> Universes or Parallel Worlds in modern physics)
>
> And just as in relativistic physics each of these Worlds appear to
> be real (and in a sense ARE real) to observers (and participants)
> from those Worlds and in particular if such observer-participants
> are moving (and investing money) at much less than the speed of light.
>
>
> So this might exclude the ten trades per second crowd... -which I
> am just assuming is rather thin anyway, outside of Goldman Sachs-
> since those guys will presumably gain no matter what world we may
> all happen to be living in;....(except an honest one of course)
>
>
> So what to do to guide one's trading strategy going forward? Does
> one "sum over many paths" (and many worlds) and try to take the average
> of the various Bizzarro Worlds as being "the real reality"...(or
> could the real reality simply just stand up for us instead) or does
> one select one weird world over another? And if so, how and by what
> specific criteria?
>
> In other words (and in other worlds too) should one believe Dr. Doom
> and Dr. Stiglitz or should one instead believe one or another of
> the roaring Bulls or the roaring bull-artists?
>
> Moreover since the World of Planet Earth is also divided into many
> Regions and Countries, what if one Bizzarro World is found to apply
> to one region but not to others? (where other Bizzarros may instead
> be reigning supreme -or trying to- from their own commanding heights
> of their "socialist-market" economy)
>
> Rest assured that I do NOT expect an answer to the preceding question
> (or to the several Bizzarro Questions all simultaneously inherent
> in the above) but I did think that my questioning could provide "food
> for further thought". Either by the Bizzarros themselves, or by some
> of the more normal folks trying to figure out what the heck might
> be "really" going on. (besides the "many worlds" interpretation of
> quantum physics)

Today's Bizarro Economic World

Wow USA Today went with a Bizarro world view point too.

I guess there are many strange things happening out there in the economy, politics etc. so it makes sense that some would use the analogy as well.

Thanks for the comment.

Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital


On Oct 07 10:08 AM User 353732 wrote:

> In today's USA,
> Bizzaro World: the domain of WashDc, Wall St, Hollywood, Academia,
> MSM
>
> Normal World: the domicile of Ordinary Americans
>
> In 2009, Bizzaro world has succesfuuly occupied Normal world and
> those in the Normal world it cannot covert to Bizzaro world it will
> seek to pursue, subjugate and torment. Two opposing worlds cannot
> coexist. Either reality and being will prevail and Ordinary Americans
> will regain freedom, security and prosperity or.......Bizzaro world
> will consume the American Experiment.

Today's Bizarro Economic World

Hi James,

Thanks for the comment. I agree under employment is very important as the regular unemployment excludes this gauge. There are quite a number of people under employed. I think the number being bandied about is around 16% when you combine the unemployment and under employment.

Thanks

Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital


On Oct 07 09:59 AM JAMES CARLINI wrote:

> I agree the recession is NOT over.
>
> And - it's not just unemployment we should be concerned with, it's
> underemployment.
>
> You don't get Superman by paying Jimmy Olson wages.

Today's Bizarro Economic World

Thanks for the comments!

Re: Good to note that exports from China to the US are down less than other countries exports to the US. I did not know that China exports to the US are back to 2005 and 2006 numbers though, I wonder what percentage change that is from 2009 or 2008?

Agree with the statement about cultural changes in China will take some time before the Chinese consumer can really step it up.

For your Australian Central Bank thoughts, I will look at your article.

Thanks

Tom Henderson, Strategist JBH Capital


On Oct 07 09:52 AM Wildebeest wrote:

> At the moment imports from China for 2009 are looking like coming
> in somewhere between 2005 and 2006 numbers. So while I share your
> belief that a recovery depends on the US consumer, at the moment
> China hasn't taken much of a hit. Imports from other countries are
> down more than from China.
>
> re: China wanting to increase domestic consumption. As I understand
> it this requires cultural change for the result to be significant,
> therefore it is unlikely to occur immediately (even in a totalitarian
> regime).
>
> re: Australia. I've commented on other instablogs yesterday on why
> it is an atypical case so won't rehash.

Counterparty Risk and the Subprime Fiasco

Hi Maryanne,

I just saw this comment. I know it is a while ago but I wanted to thank you any way for the comment.

With the banking system getting recapitalized counterparty risk (although still important) has become less of a risk and banks are trading and lending with each other again.

I will be watching this closely as Counterparty risk is a risk that can grow through the financial system rapidly creating a massive log jam.

Thanks again.

Tom Henderson