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The Intermarket Edge

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  • Interest Rates: The Darkest Black Swan Ahead? [View article]
    I'm surprised at how many people commenting have not read Talebs book. Or if they have read it, then they have drawn a drastically different conclusion to that of the author.
    Oct 7 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: Why You Should Wait For A Pullback [View article]
    I recall reading that Walmart was overvalued when it was at $60. Time will tell.
    Sep 11 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: So Much Talk About a Bubble [View article]
    Yes, there is quite a rampant amount of manipulation in ETFs TMV etc because this is the market that the Fed has chosen to use long dated bonds for asset purchases. It will be an interesting waiting game. We'll see if 30 year bonds break much lower now that Bill Gross (PIMCO) is net short US treasuries. There is manipulation of the data that suggests that the private sector is still buying treasuries and but that is false.
    Apr 12 01:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Metals on the Rise as U.S. Dollar Declines [View article]
    alan ljl. I understand where you are coming from, I should make it clearer. I don't buy and hold stocks, I've heard similar arguments about Baidu, Google and Apple. They are disproportionate to their earnings because the trends are formed from crowd psychology, not efficient market theory. I am a trader and see it from a technical standpoint having broken out of a triangle formation. Fundamentally I believe since it is the largest market cap provider in this niche sector, providing to China it is becoming more attractive as the US dollar falls in relation to the currencies of emerging countries that have great demand for these metals. I form this belief because no market moves in isolation. I hope this makes a bit more sense and is not as misleading as I might have made it sound. The PE is not my focus. The intermarket forces are my focus.
    Apr 1 05:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese Equities: The Buy of the Decade! [View article]
    Yes, this view should either be expressed through the use of options to limit the further downside. On the other hand one could simply wait for confirmation of support first. Still - "invest at the point of maximum pessimism".
    Mar 14 05:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Market Outlook: 4 Ways to Hedge the Looming Fixed-Income Fiasco [View article]
    Great insight. Hopefully those still in the 30 year bonds have that realisation early enough to avoid "the financial thrashing - of their lives".
    As Nassim Taleb says, shorting treasuries is a "no-brainer".
    Mar 9 04:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Spiking Oil is Deflationary [View article]
    All this complexity aside, bonds go up when there is fear that equities will fall. TLT represents one of the safest investments you can make( not the truth). This rise in TLT represents a flood to safety. Though you are entitled to your opinion that the link is between oil and bonds, I'd caution that rising oil prices are not deflationary or at least have not been indicative of deflation in the past.
    Feb 25 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperinflation: Is It Coming? [View article]
    Add to your article the advent of rising commodities in multi-currency terms and ticks all line up to suite the title.
    Feb 18 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is U.S. Treasury Undermining QE2? [View article]
    We can look at a few basic forces at work. The absolute killer for the 30 year bonds is the inevitable interest rate hike to curb inflation. You can't really get away with printing that much(or buying up that much government debt) while the underlying commodities continue to trend upwards. Inflation will dictate the long term yield and the FED will determine the short term yields. I'm of the opinion that you will begin to see divergence between the shorter and longer term yields as money flows from the almost useless long term bonds into shorter maturities.
    Feb 18 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hasn't the VIX Broken to New Lows? [View article]
    This is a little silly. Really. The VIX is a volatility indicator and is sensitive to call and put values. Technical analysis of this nature is too rigid. I agree with John. Vexed by the VIX anyone?
    Feb 18 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Markets: What You See Isn't What You Get [View article]
    Once you change the relationship between interest rates and have rising commodity trends in multiple currencies, you remove the link between stocks and bonds. They begin to diverge. When is the last time there was a bear market in bonds? We have to go a little further back in time. But this is all just 'Intermarket Analysis'. The average investor is not prepared for the coming bond bear market. You can't really get away with printing that much and having no consequences down the line. Long TBT.
    Feb 18 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Muni Bonds: Modest Recovery Underway [View article]
    You will continue to see short term rates diverge from long term rates as the FED controls the shorter term rates and Inflation will dictate what happens to anything with a maturity of over 3 years. It's really quite sad what eventually happens to the Long term bond holders, as most may be unaware that there can even be a bear market in long term treasury bonds. Hasn't happened in a while has it?
    Feb 17 08:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Week in Review: Carry Trade Suffers [View article]
    I wonder whether the Fed chairman knows what Eurodollars are. They escape the attention and regulation of the Fed. The record printing only adds to the liquidity of the markets. That's no mystery. I'm curious as to where it leads when banks in the US banks start increasing the lending. There may be hope for the carry trade yet.
    Feb 14 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are the Consumer Engines Revving Up Prematurely? [View article]
    You may be quite surprised with the unemployment numbers. Not only are VAR( value at risk) formulas and unemployment calculations flawed, but in the past there has been open manipulation of the CPI by changing the measure several times. Core inflation is also a poor measure of real inflation. Any chart of commodity prices will tell you that commodities are heading up. It seems insane to measure inflation without the inclusion of energy and food priced in. Bens intentions may be to reduce the massive US debt without causing panic and free the Yuan from being pegged to USD. The amount of money being circulated is monumental and really banks have yet to start really lending. That's the catalyst that drives run away inflationary pressures that, if do occur, will be confirmed by the record yields on US bonds.
    Feb 13 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Recovery Solidifying [View article]
    I agree with you. A loose definition would be that inflationary pressures in the past pulls money out of the government debt markets and safe haven currencies like the USD and Yen and into those of emerging markets. There has even been an increase of pension fund money being pouring into the emerging sectors.
    I'm very interested in what happens when focus shifts back to the biggest economy in the world. I'd watch that dangerous high on the yields of US bonds. Stockcharts- TYX and compare the chart to $USD. A decisive break higher will signal the first bear market in bonds in a while.
    Feb 13 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment