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The Investing Engineer

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  • Chipotle Has Strong Competition Now, No Longer Conviction Buy [View article]
    What about Einstein Bagels? That's even less competition that Papa Johns. Completely different niche. Bagels are breakfast, burritos are lunch (and when I'm lazy, dinner). If he's going to compare those, he might as well throw in Jamba Juice, Wawa's deli counter and Whole Foods.
    Mar 26 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities: Boring Dead Weights Or Solid Long-Term Investments? [View article]
    At the age of 66 (near or at retirement) you might want to add some boring MLPs to your portfolio. Master Limited Partnerships tend to be involved in the natural gas business, and pay out a nice (+4%) dividend yield. The best part is that MLP stocks operate slightly different from normal stocks and the dividend is sheltered from tax via a depreciation deduction on the company equipment. The downside to this is that the depreciation will eventually lower your cost basis to $0, so you'll be taxed on the full market value when you sell, instead of on just the net profit.

    If this interests you, some good companies to look into include EPD and KMP.
    Feb 4 12:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford (F) January U.S. sales: +22.0% to 166,501 vehicles with retail sales up a brisk 24%. The Ford brand up 23.3% to 131,589 to help offset another slip in Lincoln sales. A big month for the Ford Fusion, up 65% to 22,399. The highly-watched C-Max Hybrid registered 2,725 sales for the month. The automaker's sales soared past the consensus estimate of analysts calling for a 17% Y/Y monthly gain. (PR[View news story]
    JoseV, the solution to the "no love" cycle is to have faith in the dividend. If Ford brings in the money, they'll reward you with the dividend, no matter what you can buy one share for. They're already doing this, just recently doubling it from $.05 to $.1!
    Feb 1 02:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Rules For Buying Dividend Stocks [View article]
    David, that's why I diversify. My portfolio has a mix of both. While I hold onto a lot of Coca-Cola shares for the dividend growth, I also have a lot of Seadrill, with its 9% yield. A high growth rate isn't guaranteed, but neither is a high yield.
    Jan 28 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Rules For Buying Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Good article. I'd like to comment on tip #11. For someone who is buying the stock to use the dividend as retirement cash, the yield is very important. However, if you're buying with the plan to hold on for a very long time, while reinvesting dividends, a lower yield becomes less of an issue. Instead, the dividend growth rate replaces the yield in importance. Over a long enough time, the stock that started at a 2% yield will be making you more money than the one that started at 3%.

    You should keep this mind, otherwise you might miss out on a great dividend company like Coca-Cola, which pays less than a 3% yield, but has increased the payout 155% in 10 years.
    Jan 26 11:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    I can see how the greater fool theory applies to poker; you want the other players to pay for your hand, sometimes being enticed by the size of the pot to stay in when they should really fold. I'm not sure about investing in this case, however. The investing I'm describing is dividend growth, and the goal isn't to trick anyone into paying more than the stock is worth. In fact, the plan is to hold onto the stock as long as possible, only selling as a last resort. Thanks for the comment. Got me thinking!
    Jan 26 10:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    Thanks for the good story, but alas, I don't think futures are for me. I'd rather skip the lesson and just pretend that I lost money.

    I can only hope to have the kind of money one day that your friend lost in a few hours of poker, and I'd probably just invest it in Coca-Cola, if it wasn't invested already. The goal is to invest it conservatively enough that I don't even have to worry about pull up power (but as the saying goes, s--- happens).
    Jan 26 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    Yeah, I see that. For the sake of the article, lets just say that the turn and river wouldn't help a straight flush draw.
    Jan 25 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    You're right, I didn't think about the royal flush...I'm pretty sure that no matter how it's played, if it were an ace high four of a kind against a royal flush, the guy with the ace would lose all his money (as long as the other guy has the same or more).
    Jan 25 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    Well, yeah, you can never be 100% sure of any investment, but the point I'm trying to make is that's it's better to play it slow and maybe pay a small opportunity cost to lower your risk. An alternate strategy is to take an initial small position and then either add to it or sell when you get a better feeling about the company, a la raising or folding after the flop.
    Jan 25 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    1. Being one of the blinds isn't a bad thing. If you know you have a good hand, you're going to bet anyway. If you know a company is good, an institutional trader might be able to swing the price up and down but you can just hold onto it and make money. This is why I like dividend stocks; the share price isn't too important except for reinvesting and if you ever decide to sell.

    2. As a long term dividend growth investor, I don't think I'm missing out on anything with after hours trading. All I care about is every three months.

    3. But the market can bluff you...or at least Goldman Sachs did when they knowingly sold toxic assets, then bet against the companies they sold them to.
    Jan 25 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    Thanks! I think that last sentence illustrates my conservative investing approach. You'll never find me putting more than a few bucks into a start-up or a company with an ambiguous growth model.
    Jan 25 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    Yes, that's what I'm talking about; actually calculating those odds and investing using statistical methods. When I see that Ford is selling a lot of vehicles I know that there are good odds on the share price going up and I invest. However, this is different from calculating the probably of several stocks going up by a certain amount within a specified time frame and allocating your funds in such a way to optimize reward at a certain level of risk.

    That's something I'd like to read up on.
    Jan 25 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    Luckily I've never missed out on a four of a kind, but when I was playing Texas Hold'em on my phone for those 3 days, I ended up getting the "Epic Fail" aware for folding what would have been 10 full houses.

    ---

    Even though I'm not very bullish on Intel, there's some point where the company is oversold based on the value of everything they do that's not related to PC sales or mobile phones. If they could sustain and grow that dividend even in a worst case scenario with the PC and mobile market, then Intel will have moved from my "gamble" column to my "sure thing" column. They might already be at this point. I'll have to take another look at their fundamentals and the growth rates of their difference business segments.
    Jan 25 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All In: Texas Buy And Hold'em [View article]
    But he ended up selling anyway, so it would have made no difference had that happened.
    Jan 25 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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