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  • Ensco, Pride Merger: A Match Made in Heaven [View article]
    Excellent thoughts, Toby. I'm extremely optimistic going forward, you just hate to see Ensco give up shares when many of us think they are so undervalued right now. That being said, with Ensco's management, it's a blessing that they're the acquiror rather than being an acquiree by someone else, although I thought it would be the other way around. Short term negative, long term positive.

    Disclosure: We're long Ensco
    Feb 8 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Cheap Reinsurers to Research: Historically Low Price to Book [View article]
    Ah... good old mark to market. That's a complaint of mine for another day.
    Feb 7 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ace Limited: Hitting New Highs but Still Trading for Less Than Book Value [View article]
    Hey Jimmy- I agree that we are as well. I haven't seen the company give guidance if this situation occurs. I actually would be afraid if rates go up even higher than 400 basis points, and I do think it's a possibility over the next few years. Can the 10 year get to the levels we saw in the early 80's? Sure. I'd like to see someone put together a report on how that rise specifically affected different industries. It wouldn't be good for insurance, but how bad, I don't know.

    Look at this chart: 3.bp.blogspot.com/_DLI...

    7% would be a median.
    Feb 6 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Stock Picks for 2011: My Top (Relatively Safe) Holdings [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Vern. A few reasons, some not necessarily specifically relevant to Synovus. The steepening yield curve will likely help generate new business quite a bit, as long as there is demand out there, which I think there is.

    A lot of these smaller banks have reserved very robustly, and I wouldn't be surprised if some of the reserves are backed out in the next few years. Anticipation of that will help share prices later in the year.

    Quite a few smaller banks have made very large reserves in the first part of the year in order to be clean in the second half. Look at CRBC, which I also own, for an example of this. The market is not recognizing that, but read their latest conference call transcript.

    We haven't seen a whole lot of this yet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see M&A pick up. In fact, I'd be surprised if it doesn't pick up among some of these banks, especially if the acquirers think the smaller banks have over-reserved. P/B is ridiculously low, making any acquisition immediately accretive. Look at CRBC. P/B is .3.

    That also makes buybacks immediately accretive... and some dividends should increase. I think the regulators will start to get off of their backs on these kinds of issues.

    A lot of this assumes that defaults will continue to decrease, and I don't see why they won't. Others market participants are more, sometimes much more, pessimistic, and that's helped keep valuations low. So, for those of us who are a little more optimistic, I think it's a good time to get in.
    Feb 6 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now the Time to Buy Hartford Financial? [View article]
    Barron's had a nice article today suggesting HIG's warrants. If you have a subscription, I believe the column is located here: online.barrons.com/art...
    Feb 6 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Value Alert: M&F Worldwide Corp. [View instapost]
    Take it easy, crawfish. Bring your comments to a Yahoo Finance messageboard or something. They're not welcome here.
    Feb 5 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now the Time to Buy Hartford Financial? [View article]
    Hey Think-Speak: For the price range, what are you referring to that is already agreed upon to be incorrect? I used the historical P/E and low range of the historical P/B. Those aren't incorrect.

    Are you an EMT guy? The reason why the whole sector is cheap is because it's out of favor. There may be good reasons for it being out of favor, there may be bad reasons. There's a debate to be had regarding that, but Tom's comments above are a good start to the explanation.

    If you think the article needs to be rewritten, why don't you write it and post something rather than poking holes unnecessarily? I don't recall you giving me this assignment. If I wanted to discuss Allianz, I would have.
    Feb 4 11:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now the Time to Buy Hartford Financial? [View article]
    Tom: You're not the only one who is haunted by that memory. I think the recent history plays a role in depressed valuations. Time just needs to keep going by.

    Think-Speak: Hmmm, I certainly misspoke on Ace, but not HCC. Not sure why it was in my head that Ace was smaller when I was writing this. I suppose I was focusing on the U.S., but whatever. I was wrong. The fact that Hartford is a hybrid is why I'd be more interested in Ace or TRV. This column isn't a research report. You can find that elsewhere. Maybe I should have been more clear about their combined ratio. When I said it's not good, I meant compared to their competitors. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you, but do we both not agree that it's cheap? When you say would Paulson unload at $39, are you being sarcastic? It seems reasonable that he would unload at $56, which is 1.2X.
    Feb 4 10:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SFN Group Shares Jump: Too Late to Buy? [View article]
    Haha- yeah, I don't want to make it difficult for you, but I also don't want to keep repeating myself. I'd start with this:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Feb 4 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SFN Group Shares Jump: Too Late to Buy? [View article]
    You'll just have to follow along and read through some of my old articles. I've given out dozens of ideas.
    Feb 4 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out of China Media Express [View article]
    Okay guys, this thread has gone off the deep end, so I'm going to check out. Send me a message if you have any specific questions.

    If you'd like to learn more about me, just Google my name.
    Feb 1 09:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out of China Media Express [View article]
    No one in their right mind would short CCME. Even if your thesis was right, there's a huge chance the stock still goes up. It would just be stupid.
    Feb 1 09:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out of China Media Express [View article]
    I do have a big interest in shorts, although I'm not able to do it. I think that shorts generally do better research than longs.

    As for my personal accounts, all of my liquid assets are in the fund I manage, alongside my investors. You can look for something nefarious all you want, I'm afraid you'll be disappointed.
    Feb 1 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out of China Media Express [View article]
    Haha- How is it glaring? There's a big graph on the front page!

    As for performance fees, I don't run a hedge fund.
    Feb 1 03:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Out of China Media Express [View article]
    Have you looked at the instablog? It's right here: seekingalpha.com/insta...

    It doesn't have anything to do with CCME. It's about China's population problem.
    Feb 1 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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162 Comments
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