Seeking Alpha

The Knight Analyst

View as an RSS Feed
View The Knight Analyst's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Amazon Prime Has Improved My Life, And Will Improve Company Profits [View article]
    We are investors. Agreed, the stock price is way high in comparison to earnings, but I went long a while ago because I saw the potential. Truthfully, this is the only stock that I have in my portfolio like this. Usually I will sell when the price gets silly. But, my account is up as a result of being ana Amazon shareholder. I happen to be a big fan/user too.

    Are you still short?
    Feb 13 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Prime Has Improved My Life, And Will Improve Company Profits [View article]
    Hhhmmmm.....18 months later and despite the recent minor selloff, seems to be going as predicted. They are more profitable and looks like your short position paid off real well Paulo.
    Feb 13 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Vs. Michael Kors [View article]
    I wrote too fast.....after all of the above, my cost basis would be closer to $19K, so a gain of 52%, not 100%. Still, this seems worthwhile, but I see that the weakness isn't over based on today's trading just below $46.
    Feb 26 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Vs. Michael Kors [View article]
    While you have some good points, I think your growth rate assumptions (at least for COH) are too aggressive - especially when compared to the Yahoo finance consensus estimates. For example, FY '13 & '14 eps per yahoo are $3.71 & $4.15 vs. your estimates of $4.18 & $4.70, respectively. As a result, you are 13% too high each year.

    Right now KORS should trade at a higher multiple than COH due to it's growth trajectory. However, the profitability of KORS is much less than COH and KORS is submitting to cheapening their image (with discounting) which is contra the COH long-term strategy.

    A big issue for COH is that due to internet distribution, all luxury retail has suffered somewhat except for the ultra-high end stuff (LV and peers). Accessible luxury has sufferred since the stuff is available everywhere. I interviewed for a variety of jobs at COH over the years and I know this is a big strategic issue for them.

    As a long term investor in COH, I am now out as a buy-and-hold investor. I believe they hit a wall in terms of global saturation coupled with increased, lower-priced competition...from KORS and many others. Internet distribution is icing on the cake.

    However, because I am an investor, I think there is a better way to play COH and make some $$ - that's why we're all here, right?

    I am considering buying 500 shares today at $47 (or less). I will then sell 5 Jan-15 $40 puts for $5 and also sell 5 Jan-15 $57.50 calls for $4.5. My net cash outlay is $14K and assuming no change to dividends, I'll collect $1.2K until Jan-15 or 8.5%. If the stock rises and is called at $57.50, I make over 100%. However, if the stock declines and I am put the additional 500 shares, I own 1,000 at $34, but I also collected the divvy of $1.2K, so real cost is closer to $33. If eps in FY '15 rises 10% over '14 to $4.50-$4.60, the stock would have to trade down to a multiple of 7-8 to equal a $33-$34 price. In other words, I think this trade is a no brainer.

    I'd love to hear thoughts or comments on this strategy before deploying. Thanks.

    -The Knight Analyst
    Feb 26 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Vringo's Damage Calculation Looks To Be Reduced [View article]
    Thank you again Steve for an insightful article. Because you mentioned the U.S. revenues, I took a look at GOOG's most recent filed 10-K to identify that number. From 2009-2011, approx 50% of GOOG's annual revenues are derived from the U.S. Would you then say that every assumption should be cut in half?

    I am a VRNG long, but only with call options and I have not invested what I am not willing to lose. As you said (many times), this is not an investment, but a really a gamble.

    It appears like we are in for much volatility and my seat belt is buckled. However, the ride looks to end next Tuesday, 10/16, possibly sooner. Just for fun, I will make a prediction on the stock price....$6 next Tuesday. Hoping for higher though of course!

    Good luck to longs!

    The Knight Analyst
    Oct 10 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Vs. Google: Of Settlements, Buyouts And New Jets [View article]
    Well written and good view points of the various options that are in front of us all. Thank you and looking forward to finding out what actually transpires over the next 1-2 weeks. Also looking forward to the "pop" in the accounts.

    Thanks again.

    -The Knight Analyst
    Oct 4 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo Receives Positive Patent News [View article]
    On a tip over the summer I picked up Nov $5 calls on the cheap. I've held on since knowing that this is a bet...either going to zero or possible $30+. If you made $ on the stock, I urge you to consider selling some or all and leveraging into call options. If it works out, it is a gift, not an investment. Good luck (and I mean luck) to all!
    Oct 3 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falling On Missed iPhone 5 Sales Estimates: Opportunity To Buy At A Lower Price [View article]
    Andy, good points made in your article and I personally agree. This is a short-term blip and is an opportunity, although the media creates panic. I am considering your option play to get into the shares, but I favor leaps - Jan '14 and '15. Any thoughts on these at a $500 strike?
    Sep 26 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After A 25% Gain On Coach In 45 Days, Is There Further Upside? [View article]
    Back to basics - I like it! High-priced, all leather, going back to the roots after years of material mixtures (cloth, straw) and too much "C" IMO. Way overdone!

    Any idea how the Reed Krakoff line is doing? I need to print and read an entire 10-K this weekend to see if they breakout this brand separately. I haven't heard anything specific - would love to hear from anyone with insights.
    Sep 20 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 40% Upside Remaining [View article]
    Thanks - juggling work, life, kids, SA...so little to do, so much time!
    Sep 20 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After A 25% Gain On Coach In 45 Days, Is There Further Upside? [View article]
    COH down a bit today - Credit Suisse downgraded the stock since it hit their new, lowered target. Brilliant analysis and I hope they pay those folks real well. As we know, the stock has run 25% in a month and a half!

    If you're long, you can use this moment of weakness to sell puts. If it drops below $55, I'm buying more.
    Sep 20 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 40% Upside Remaining [View article]
    I didn't know you then. But, now that we're friends, if you "follow" me, you will have access to my crystal ball. I just started on SA, but as I get a handle on managing my time, I am going to start pumping out info including trading recommendations. If SA doesn't approve my AAPL article soon as an exclusive, I will publish anyway since I am curious to get perspectives on my approach. I think the stock will hit $1,200 in under 3 years. More to come...
    Sep 20 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 40% Upside Remaining [View article]
    TFCAB, fully agreed with your suggestion, which is what I do. At $300 I bought stock, but at $600, I found that ITM Leaps do the trick. In July when the stock tanked after Q3 earnings, I scooped up Jan 2014 $500 for about $130. They are up about 80% since, while the stock is only up about 25%.

    Jae, excellent work, but I get the same conclusion with much simpler math. But, now that you also said it, I feel better about my conclusion - waiting for approval from SA. You should take your own advice and find a way to buy.
    Sep 19 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After A 25% Gain On Coach In 45 Days, Is There Further Upside? [View article]
    Thanks Chad - this is certainly interesting and must have some effect on the upside potential of Coach and many other brands. My guess is that luxury goods would be most impacted, however.

    Do you know what the specifics are of Coach's China and Japan strategy - I have to pour through the 10-K (which I just haven't had time for yet). Do you have international experience in retail - I do not, but would welcome a perspective from someone who knows luxury goods in these markets.
    Sep 18 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After A 25% Gain On Coach In 45 Days, Is There Further Upside? [View article]
    Truffel, agreed on all points. I read an analyst report stating 15% growth annually for the next 5 years. I will find it and link to it. Thanks!
    Sep 18 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
26 Comments
5 Likes