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The Laptop Investor

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  • The Gold Floor Fallacy [View article]
    This topic can make for some heated discussions. Very true however that the last thing a miner wants to do is cease operations.

    Over the shorter term it may be cheaper for a mine to run at a loss than stop with the view of restarting, however there are several avenues still open to mines, ie holding reserves, slowing production but its certainly not in their interest to keep supplying the market with gold that's mined at a loss.
    Dec 9 02:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Market Crash Isn't Imminent. [View article]
    I'm not sure I'd call myself the smart money. The smart money I was eluding to were fund managers and business figureheads whether involved in the markets or not.
    Sep 10 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Market Crash Isn't Imminent. [View article]
    That is true, the smart money has been bullish yet have a listen to CNBC or similar and there clearly are a crowd of perma bears and lately I've noticed sentiment predicting a crash.

    Ironically not many people are talking about the bond bubble deflating.
    Sep 9 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds And TMV, The Widow Maker [View article]
    Im not taking too much note of Ben Bernanke's calculated and planned speeches. He is weary that he moves the market when he talks which I guess is why his speeches are contradictory. When looking at where Yields will go (and therefore bonds) I look at the overall picture, ie Housing starts, permits, construction, employment, CPI, house pricing, consumer expenditure, monetary velocity (M2), Banking rates to see the overall trend as this is what will dictate where the economy is heading and therefore any stimulus.
    Before taking the US Fed statements too seriously remember what Bernanke said before the Sub Prime Crisis, and that it wasn't going to cause an issue and it was contained. Only a matter of days/weeks later he said the problem was bigger than expected.
    Anyway to answer your question I don't know about the end of the year but I personally consider any pullback as a buying opportunity.
    Jul 18 05:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds And TMV, The Widow Maker [View article]
    I am still long TMV but more so my Eurodollar trade. Not sure about the short term but if you find yourself questioning things, just remember the title of this article as to how TMV should be viewed.
    Jul 1 06:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds And TMV, The Widow Maker [View article]
    This ETF will definitely head higher, what I meant however is due to the slippage it suffers it wont go back to its previous highs.
    As an example compare TMV when 30 year treasury yields were last at the current level, which was around August/September 2011. TMV should in theory be the same value as it was then ($100+) but its much lower now.
    Jun 23 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds And TMV, The Widow Maker [View article]
    It is hard to say due to the way it moves, however I did a comparison a while back of TMV versus (TYX) 30year yields and my estimate was above the $200 mark.
    Still that's nothing to sneeze at either way.
    I know lots have been comparing TMV with the view it will reach the $500 mark and that's highly unrealistic.
    Jun 21 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds And TMV, The Widow Maker [View article]
    Not at all, its interesting of late that bonds are still sinking while equities are too. Understand that the Fed is stimulating growth by keeping interest rates low at 0.25% and QE is an extension of that and the bond purchases are keeping yields low.
    Lack of QE will cause yields to rise.
    Any hint of a slow down or cessation from the Fed in relation to its buying of assets, id be very bullish on yields (bearish bonds).
    Jun 13 05:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds And TMV, The Widow Maker [View article]
    In this article my mention of the word 'deflation' is in relation to my expectation that instead of the bond bubble bursting, I expect it to deflate rather than crash down in price.
    Jun 7 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Defy Logic [View article]
    Thanks Filipo.
    I neglected to think of the recent South African issues and the impact they had on gold price.

    There certainly will be some interesting times ahead, also note and not just in precious metals; countries like China and India have large masses of population moving from lower class to middle class as they progress from being the under developed countries they are. As they become consumers this will have quite the ripple affect on resources.
    May 23 08:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals Defy Logic [View article]
    Thanks Petrarch for your insight.

    Of the 171300 tonnes of 'physical' gold there's not as much of it as trade-able supply that most people would assume. There has been a reliance of a steady supply for liquidity purposes.

    The divergence I mention is how physical gold and futures contracts, exchange traded derivatives etc trade like they are their own beast of late.

    While history is no indicator of future performance commodities have strong support at their respective production cost levels. While gold is not 'used' like other commodities it still has followed this trend for the reasons above. For example in the early 2000s when productions costs were $250 and during the GFC costs rose to $750 these served as support.

    True the price can go anywhere however I can't see any further drop staying under 1300 for long. Time will tell of course.

    I appreciate your view and thats what makes up the Market, lots of opposing views.

    May 23 08:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Hell Gold? [View instapost]
    Thanks for your comment and apologies for late reply.
    Institutional selling has created unusual behaviour and im not convinced it has been entirely institutions selling Gold as the volume traded in the week it dropped hugely has me thinking the price has dropped for other reasons.

    I fail to see the logic in institutions selling Gold in such volumes that drove the price down so much.

    As it stands over 50% of demand for Gold is for jewellery and these collectors hold on for life. I've an article being edited at the moment discussing underlying factors in Gold/Silver and why what is occuring isnt sustainable.

    As for 1980 - 2002 bear market that coincidentally occured at a time when copious gold supplies were being found due to the emergence of new technology yet central banks were net sellers of gold.
    May 21 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Quantitative Easing Leads To Cheaper Gold [View article]
    While its agreed Gold is sensitive to Inflationary pressures Its interesting to note that when you look at that inflation has been on the decline since late last year and QE3 hasnt had the same effect in Inflation like QE1 and 2 did.

    For whatever reason the above has occured I can only think its created a golden buying opportunity for the discerning investor.
    Apr 28 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About The Impact Of Dividend Reinvesting [View article]
    Nice article.
    The danger for people that go the DIY path is that they tend to think they can out do a fund manager or the Index.
    Invariably the DIY'ers tend to get burnt.
    Apr 15 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment