The LFB

Oh, So Now There Are No Green Shoots?

Great thoughts in this article.

Apparently nobody told the Green Shoot brigade that the Trough part of the global business cycle takes a while to get out of, and while the sentiment may be changing the fundamental releases take a long time to make up the lag factor between optimism and reality aligning.

How can ever-increasing weekly jobless numbers, and increasing national unemployment rates hitting 10%, lead to the private sector being expected not to post similar numbers to the previous months bloodbath in job losses (rhetorical).

There is little wonder that the market cannot get global interest to move prices in any market, in any direction, when the future outlook is as blurry as the analyst and forecasters are making it. Fair value is as elusive right now on any given market than it has ever been.

Forget year-end targets and talk of the recession ending in Q3 or Q4 because, the reality is most analysts would stand as much chance of pinning the tail on the donkey as they would getting the Thursday close number on the S&P; let alone calling for the bottom of the most savage of global financial melt-downs that has ever been seen.

This is a traders market right now, one that is built for reactive, contrarian thinkers who are prepared to take a shot at the links that drive forex values actually holding for more than 30 minutes; because in reality that is all that is being offered right now.

Short, sharp bursts of order flows that break up a choppy market, and then reverse as quickly as they hit. Not good to look at, frustrating to look back on, but there for those who are opinion free, and ready to work with what is right in front of them, rather than trying to deal with what they want things to be.

Good read, good thoughts, thank you.