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  • CombiMatrix: A Turnaround Story For 2014 [View article]
    Great write up. Tell me what you know about competition within the CMA field. How exclusive is CBMX to this niche? Any idea?
    Feb 14 05:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney -1.6% pre-market, Craig-Hallum sees $0/share [View news story]
    Last huge rally started the day after the downgrade to $1 a month or so ago. This will be the start of next rally. The analyst are only trying to get you to move in the direction they want you to move. Buy low, Sell high... that's what they do... but they have the forum to get their message out while the minions do not. Don't be suckered.
    Jan 17 10:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aruba Networks - Misrepresented And Misunderstood [View article]
    Nicely written, common sense article. I've been investing in ARUN only more recently... since noticing their two tiered drop back in May. I'm not a techie either and only learned of the company after seeing it pop up on a top decliners list. What I loved about the sell-off was that it went from 22 to 17's after announcing earnings would not be as good as expected. Then, once those actual earnings were released a few short weeks later, it dropped another leg from 17's to 13's. That's where I started buying in. Have now moved some of those funds into 2015 + 2016 LEAPS and have been writing short-term out-of-the-money calls against it. Love this stock below $17. Think it will be a big winner mid to long term.
    Oct 1 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    Thanks Kay!

    Soundguy... if they weren't burning through so much cash I might be a little more encouraged. I'm sure at some point being a DCTH shareholder might be hip again, but it might find itself over on the bulletin boards before that happens.

    Until then, stock could get a few more moves. Could happen in the next month leading up to the (surely) FDA rejection or sometime leading up to the new trial results down the road. Don't get too exciting about the company always seemingly being "debt free" though because it always comes at the expense of the common shareholders who continue to get diluted to oblivion. The company really needs successful Gen2 trials structured just as the FDA wants... that's really the only long-term hope they have imo.

    Current price: .35
    Aug 16 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    Regarding dilution, I expect much much more. Most recently they diluted in May 2012, Dec 2012, and Mar 2013 (though this one hasn't been actually tapped into yet, that we know of). I'm fully expecting an eventual reverse-split in order to remain listed and then another bleed-off in share price. This company going to need lots more money and/or a partner to make it into 2017.

    If the Gen2 device is really as good as company proclaims, then Delcath still has a shot at eventually make it through the FDA hoops. However, I am concerned with the language of the FDA and their concern with the risk of the device, the time people have to remain under the care of doctor when treated with this device, and the experience level required of the people administering the drug/device. As the FDA hinted, they seem to believe that the circumstances under which trials were conducted were unlikely to be duplicated in the "real world". In other words, only in a best case scenario could results be duplicated outside of the trials.

    Based on all we have learned, I'm thinking the only bounce we may have from here will be the "dead cat" bounce. Though the stock has fallen to $0.46, there is not a single finger on my hand itching to hit the "buy" button at these levels.

    Seems the larger companies definitely have an easier time getting things approved with the FDA, but think much of it has to do with the fact that they have the funds to conduct a proper trial with no short-cuts. Plus, they have years of experience of bringing products to market. Sometimes, you'd think a bunch of baffoons were running these smaller companies and that they have no idea how to bring a product to market. I also think they tend to rush things through and take short-cuts because of their lack of funds. The FDA needs to publish a "Phase III trials for Dummies" book.
    May 5 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    Looks like Cowen now projecting 2017 as the year Delcath will get FDA approval for Melblez Kit. Guess they don't have too much hope for this September.

    http://bit.ly/15gRClb
    May 4 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    Wow. My instincts (or paranoia) proved 100% accurate. ODAC panel votes 0 for and 16 against? Amazing. FDA allows Gen2 in EAP program and also accepted the Gen2 technical amendment to their NDA. But come ODAC time, learn that FDA doesn't even want to talk about Gen2. They want to talk 2010 again. Amazing.

    If the FDA still refuses to consider Gen2 info generated from the EAP program or Europe by the time September comes around, looks like there is no way the Melblez Kit gets it's FDA approval anytime soon. It will also prove that Delcath has pissed away the past three years and burned through millions that could have been used for a Gen2 trial instead.

    I don't just fault Delcath for this, I also fault the FDA for allowing them to wander down the wrong path. Not only are they indicating they now want a Gen2 trial, they are also indicating that they want overall survival (OS) to be the main determining factor going forward. If that's true, then why did the FDA accept the median hepatic progression free survival rate (hPFS) as the primary endpoint during phase III back in 2010 for Gen1? Years of time and and millions of dollars wasted.

    Delcath may have also invited some sort of class action lawsuit, especially if it proves true that the company was fibbing about the safety profile of Gen1 and how those patients succumbed. For certain, the FDA seemed to have more damning information regarding the total amount of deaths and the way these people died during phase III trials. Might just be an interpretation issue, but when stocks tank, usually the lawyers come out of the woodwork.

    In the long run, Delcath should continue to survive just as they have for the past two decades, but this hurts and will likely push back hopes of an FDA approval to 2016. Additionally, it may have further hurt their odds for reimbursement in Europe.

    Well, time to cast my votes. Was waiting for this day. Voted against everything and everyone company recommended. Small payback. Nite all.
    May 3 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    And another SierraWord disaster today...

    TTNP - Titan Pharmaceuticals
    Sierra 2 days ago: Company in acquisition talks with JNJ
    http://bit.ly/17xyIUr
    Price 2 days ago: $1.60

    Price today, after FDA rejection: $0.43 (1.23)
    fyi: ODAC voted 10-4-1 in favor of approval.
    May 1 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    Today company announces that they will be releasing earnings on May 8th after the market closes. Seems my prediction of a May 9th ultimate bottom might be lining up perfectly. Guess we could now make earnings my 4th reason listed under Red Flag #2 as to why I think we might get our bottom on that date... the exact date the big-money cronies can buy back into Delcath with no white-wash issues. Lightening strikes twice? Might be the day I put some toes back in the water... maybe.

    http://yhoo.it/ZVT3R6
    May 1 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    The only regret I have with this article is that I didn't get it published during market hours yesterday. SA wanted a few more tweaks but, being that I'm a working man, I wasn't able to address the tweaks till after returning home after the market had already closed... hence, the late evening publication. DCTH ran over 45% a few weeks after my first article, as I suggested it would, but that rally was not able to hold.

    Based on today's price action, seems my Red Flags were valid, but nothing will be definitive till May 2nd. This ain't my first rodeo.
    Apr 30 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    SierraWorld is a real site nuggenman, but the information they provide is often make believe... but if you don't think there is real money behind that operation, then you not paying attention. I've looked into establishing KERX puts based solely on the Sierra schtick.

    Question to ponder... if you flipped a coin 10 times and it landed on heads 9 times, and you found this to repeat itself. Would you use that information to your benefit or ignore it?
    Apr 30 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    The weather changed JSP51. Storm clouds developed and the sky darkened. I wasn't willing to fly though it. Just like going to war. Sometimes, once you get on the battles lines and get a look at what the enemy is doing you fight. Other times you retreat. Too many last minute ominous signs. Better to be flexible and live than rigid and die, especially when it comes to investing. I still want to like Delcath, but there are forces working against it here at the moment.
    Apr 30 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    Maybe I should become of those investment types that makes decisions based on the moon and where the planets lie in relation to the earth at any given moment. You might be on to something there and happy to see someone else on the May 9th bandwagon.

    Regarding Sierra, they are in the promotion business, not the fact business. I've seen them play this exact same game with other stocks too many times already. Usually it means something very very bad about to happen... and I am being completely honest here. I'm a Delcath supporter, but there is a boogy man around the corner I fear.
    Apr 30 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    I usually think the smarter money (regardless of the stock) is on the put side simply because it's human nature is to buy (not sell) and think things are going up (not down). People tend to go into cash when they fear doom and gloom, buying puts or selling short takes an extra mindset all together... especially taking short positions. Also remember that small traders many times don't have the equity to short or cant find the shares to short. Big money (smarter money?) seems to be able to short whenever they want though... even naked. I suspect the May and June $2 calls will soon be worthless... but hope I'm wrong. When every article on SA said DCTH was going to go up 40% (hey,even my first one said that... and it did, briefly, for the record) you have to be careful you not just another kool-aid drinker. But the kool-aid didn't spook me, it was those pesky red flags.

    Then again, I've only got a bachelors in Marketing (not the doctorate like you do), so what do I know. haha ;)
    Apr 30 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: Too Many Red Flags To Hold Through May 2nd ODAC [View article]
    MedGuy, not sure how you thought Red Flag #1 (SierraWorld) was used to support the reasoning behind Red Flag # 2. Red Flag #2 was based on only two elements: volume and calendar dates.

    Regarding SierraWorld, apparently they working overtime tonight on the DCTH promotion. Less than an hour ago they issued a new claim... that Pfizer has made an offer to Delcath. If so, the companies must be burning the mid-night oil to get the deal done. I may have been born in the night, but it wasn't last night. Someone trying to get new money to enter this stock before ODAC. It won't be mine.

    http://bit.ly/12Wbjed;t=
    Apr 30 12:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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