The Linch Scale

Long/short equity, deep value, growth, long-term horizon
The Linch Scale
Long/short equity, deep value, growth, long-term horizon
Contributor since: 2013
Great article highlighting the many risk associated with anyone holding these shares. These are the cold hard facts. I hope Afrezza remains on the market as I truly believe it may be a superior product for some... but that doesn't necessarily translate into a great investment opportunity... as we've all witnessed. All these issues MNKD has experienced thus far with the FDA, the education of doctors and patients, funding, the completion of long-term trials... all these issues will be duplicated with each new indication MNKD attempts to bring to market. Already heavily in debt, this feels more like the end of MNKD than the beginning.
<span style='font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;'><font color="#000000">Make that sitting on $80MIL cash, not $80.</font><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font color="#000000" face="Calibri" size="3">&nbsp; </font></span... color="#000000">Do NOT invest in any company sitting on only $80
cash.</font><... style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><font color="#000000" face="Calibri" size="3">&nbsp; </font></span... color="#000000">Good Grief. haha</font></...
GNFTF and ICPT... the way their recent trials have gone has dampened a lot of spirits. I'd go with the NASH wild card... PLX with their PRX-106. Yes, it's years away, but their PRX-102 for treating Fabry should is demonstrating it will be best-in-class and will soon be kicking SNY's Fabrazyme to the curb. All this with a $88MIL mkt cap, 6% Pfizer ownership, and a CEO that came over from TEVA. http://seekingalpha.co...
If you REALLY want to invest in a company that is in the Fabry Disease space, look no further than PLX. Their PRX-102 knocked the socks off SNY's Fabrazyme in Phase II trials and should crush them with multi Phase III trials, including head-to-head. FOLD was never going to get more than 30% of this market anyway due to it treating only certain patients. PRX-102 is demonstrating best-in-class. Phase III will be wrapping up in 2016 with approval coming sometime in 2017. Oh, and PLX is just an 88MIL market cap company... but with former TEVA big wigs at the controls.
http://bit.ly/1ZJPGZ2
If you REALLY want to invest in a company that is in the Fabry Disease space, look no further than PLX. Their PRX-102 knocked the socks off SNY's Fabrazyme in Phase II trials and should crush them with multi Phase III trials, including head-to-head. FOLD was never going to get more than 30% of this market anyway due to it treating only certain patients. PRX-102 is demonstrating best-in-class. Phase III will be wrapping up in 2016 with approval coming sometime in 2017. Oh, and PLX is just an 88MIL market cap company... but with former TEVA big wigs at the controls.
http://seekingalpha.co...
I was the Lone Ranger back in 2011/2012 amassing large amounts of DYAX at an average price not much above $1.50/share. This was a year or so before I joined SA. The buys are posted here in my new Instablog which talks of my DYAX trade, why I bought it, why I held it, and what small-cap biotech I think could be my next 20-bagger Goliath. Check it out if your bored or interested in potential deep-value companies. It's 21 pages long, so, you've been warned... but what better time to post than on a weekend. :) http://seekingalpha.co...
Thanks for the link. I've incorporated it (and the graph of competitors) into my recent Instablog...
http://seekingalpha.co...
I was the Lone Ranger back in 2011/2012 amassing large amounts of DYAX at an average price not much above $1.50/share. This was a year or so before I joined SA. The buys are are posted here in my new Instablog which talks of my DYAX trade, why I bought it, why I held it, and what small-cap biotech I've now loaded heavily into in search of my next 20-bagger.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Correction to above link. Have moved from a cell phone to a desk top so I won't screw it up again. :) http://seekingalpha.co...
I was heavily invested in DYAX at an average price not much above $1.50. If you'd like to read a little about it (along with what I think could be my next 20-bagger), see my Instablog post: http://yhoo.it/1PqBOmT;_ylu=X3oDMTEzMmxqcGVy...
For crying out loud, just give everyone a pre-loaded visa card with $10,000 credit that expires worthless in 12 months if not used.
In other news... Americans rejoice at the prospect that America's biggest criminals might not have access to their DC "safe houses".
When your broke, you'll know.
Good luck, and I say that with all sincerity. The odds of the small investor buying individual stocks beating the averages is almost nil long term. Most don't want to believe it, but the deck is stacked against "traders". Most will end up broke... eventually.
I can't recall a single small-cap bio company that I've ever followed or read about that went up after after reporting a trial failed to show statistical significance. But half of the small-caps nowadays will then go data mining and exclude the patients that didn't help their cause. Then company will sheepishly attempt to convince their audience that statistical significance did show on male patients between 43-51 years of age that are smaller than 5'10" and have blue eyes.
… and if it makes you feel any better, Adam Feuerstein picked BIIB as one of his top bio picks for 2016. Wish I had bought them at $40 instead of Elan Corp back during the Tysabri startup era. Many times when there is a small-cap a person likes due to the prospects of a particular drug, it’s actually more beneficial to buy their bigger partner in the collaboration instead. Ultimately, it worked out okay for Elan shareholders as well, but it was a horrifying roller-coaster ride. Just watched a similar story unfold with MNKD and SNY… both down, but at least SNY has a pulse. This all goes back to what Bret suggested… there is safety in large-caps. They might go down, but they likely won’t be turning out the lights.
http://bit.ly/1P9cNwo
Hi Brett, I agree with you. Many of these large bio’s have been hammered with some of them even approaching 10-year lows on their P/E ratio’s. Let the markets panic, bio’s generally have zero China risk and this is mostly why this market has been selling off. Well that, oil prices, and politics as usual. Just read an article on Market Watch that echo’s your bio sentiment: http://on.mktw.net/1Zt...
Also, you ever invest in the small-cap bio space? I recently posted myself on what I perceived to be a cheap biotech: PLX… $81.9 MIL market cap with $80 MIL in cash… enough to last 2.5 years based on current burn rate. Short interest is at 52-wk low (under 1.2%), stock about a dime away from 52-wk low, Pfizer recently bought 6% of the company’s shares, new CEO is former TEVA big wig that recently came out of retirement to join company, and company on-track for drug approval by the FDA no later than 2017 for Fabry Disease. Currently there is only 1 FDA drug approved to treat Fabry but PLX’s drug is demonstrating it will be best-in-class. Fabry market was $1BIL last year. Plus, PLX has more drugs in the pipeline. Worth a look imo.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Short-Interest update: Short interest hits another new 52-wk low for period ending 12/31/15. Only 1,117,026 short, less than 1.2% of the outstanding share count.
Found my way over here via a Market Watch article titled “10 biotech stocks to buy at ‘silly’ cheap prices” that was posted yesterday. ABUS was one of the tickers mentioned. Here is the link for anyone interested in reading:
http://on.mktw.net/1Zt...
I recently posted myself on what I perceived to be a cheap biotech: PLX… $81.9 MIL market cap with $80 MIL in cash… enough to last 2.5 years based on current burn rate. Short interest is at 52-wk low (under 1.2%), stock about a dime away from 52-wk low, Pfizer recently bought 6% of the company’s shares, new CEO is former TEVA big wig that recently came out of retirement to join company, and company on-track for drug approval by the FDA no later than 2017 for Fabry Disease (Currently, only 1 FDA drug approved to treat Fabry but PLX’s drug is demonstrating it will be best-in-class). Fabry market was $1BIL last year. Plus, more drugs in the pipeline. Worth a look imo.
http://seekingalpha.co...
So, if the market continues to get slaughtered, then you do admit... TWTR can continue to get slaughtered as well... correct?
Since your going to base your decision on whether or not to invest in Tonix only after you interview a psychiatrist... why beat around the bush? Just ask him point blank, "Do you feel I should buy Tonix stock based on the prospects of TNX-102 SL?" That's all the people here really want to know anyway.
One CFO resigning without another CFO ready to step right in? This was not a planned departure. Considering the CFO was hand picked by the CEO Lederman (Lederman was also his former professor), this is completely out of left field. Anyone suggesting this is just business as usual is wishful thinking.
Dear Brian,
Thank you for your email. It was a pleasure speaking with you recently. Currently there are over 1,200 emails ahead of yours with both similar and unique concerns. Based on your current que, you should expect a response by end of 1Q'17. Thank you for your interest in MannKind.
Sincerely,
Jessica
Abortion is unconscionable. A decimal point error on an SA article that would soon be corrected is nothing. N-O-T-H-I-N-G.
SA proving yet again the "value" of its paid subscription. Be thankful you are using the free version. :)
I'm sure Wall St is behind most of the hoaxes. They gave one constant goal: Sheer the sheep. Typically, you can also throw their opinions into the fire where they belong. They are simply pushing you in the direction they want you to move. Talk a stock up to exit, talk a stock down to buy. IMO, all analyst opinions should be fee based. The crooks have too many media outlets (or friends in on the scam) to push lies out onto the masses.
Generally speaking... because, if debt is priced for bankruptcy (for example ), debt will be selling for much less than face value. If deep pocketed fund then comes in and wants to takeover company with partner, that debt repayment becomes much more of a sure thing to bond holders. Bonds then rally and fund can make money on the bonds.
For all those interested in reading more in regards to Goldman Sachs’ recent “SELL” recommendation on MNKD… read my recent Instablog article: “Mannkind: Is There Value In A Goldman Sachs "SELL" Recommendation?"
http://bit.ly/19BT19X
FRA was applying old school parameters to new school technology. The FRA, just like the government, is slow to turn.
Thanks for the compliment. It was initially denied as an article due to it being of "technical analysis" rather than "fundamental analysis". I agree with you 100% though. Trust me, I've read plenty of articles on SA which bring no value. This is not one of them. Everyone should be aware of how the game is played.
If not for the US taxpayer and FED games, most all these firms (including GS) would have gone out of business during the financial crises they caused. The Glass-Steagall Act should be fully enforced, just as it was after the Great Depression up until 1999. Unfortunately, the Banksters have their finger prints all over our politicians nowadays... as does anyone else waving dollar bills in front of their faces.
Company likely to be hitting their year-low mid December, where most small-cap losers bottom out as tax loss selling and fund window dressing peak before year end. I'd wait till then.
Here is a 4th item that has concerned me with CBMX. I had originally considered making it a 4th bullet point, but felt my article was plenty long already. Also thought of mentioning it in closing, but would have then been bringing up a new topic.
Anyway, that 4th item is the continual listing of CBMX on the NASDAQ's Reg-Sho list, indicating the possibility of illegal shorts. The fact that these shorts are not covering despite the stock hitting new 52-wk lows indicates to me either they are bold in the beliefs this stock going lower or something similar to that. It's bad enough to be fighting off the legal shorts, but to also be battling an unknown number of illegal shorts indicates additional risk that should be taken into consideration. Additionally, since I began following CBMX in 2013, I've never noticed the company *not* being listed on the Reg-Sho list.
Here is the current Reg-Sho list:
http://bit.ly/VIyAeD
Here is more info on naked short selling:
http://bit.ly/14UVPov