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  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    The comments about Cook seem like a cheap shot. The author doesn't really say what he/she would do differently about the Android threat, the stock price dropping, or anything else. aapl has always been a low p to e stock (certainly relative to tech momentum stocks, amzn, lnk, crm), even when it was going up a lot. And the stuff about Jobs is overwrought. No company the size of aapl is just one man. I was in silly valley and heard lots of stories of Jobs. He was a person with a lot of personal defects, although he had a knack for important new products. aapl may be better off without him. The market is interesting lately. Investors were in love with aapl and it ended, and the stocks down 300 from the high. Everyone's piling into gold and then boom it's down 100 in one day. Opinions of things with no obvious catalyst (financial shenanigans, some central bank is selling a huge pile of gold) are suddenly manifesting themselves.
    Apr 19, 2013. 11:23 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Where Are We Now? [View article]
    I think there were a bunch of hedgies in gold (paulson, einhorn, schiff, ???). Hedgies I think have real trigger fingers when it comes to investing. I guess they survive by selling quickly when it comes to losses. So one must speculate that they had large holdings and all hit the sell button at the same time. The other thing I've been thinking about lately is how technology comes into play with stop loss orders. When big moves happens they hit the stop loss that lot's of people set and off we go.
    Apr 18, 2013. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple App Store Vs. Google Play [View article]
    An interesting article but both companies do so much more than their app store that it's risky to invest just on how their respective app stores are doing. My personal experience with the Apple app store was very good although I haven't submitted anything for a while. They were fair in their evaluation and put my app in the store quickly. I don't think the apple app store is a huge barrier to entry.
    Mar 26, 2013. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Abdullatif Bin Ahmed Al Othman Persuaded Me That LinkedIn Shares Are Overvalued [View article]
    The mention of joining Link In as a user in 2004 is telling. How can a company that's been around so long get such a atmospheric p to e, forward p to e, p to sales? But man does it have momentum. Money managers love this thing and are driving it. Day traders can't move a stock like this one is moving.
    Mar 22, 2013. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Hides In The Shadows [View article]
    Jason, your first sentence raises an interesting point. I have never seen anyone answer that question. If there is tons of u.s. federal deficit spending, must the fed cover it, or would really high interest rates or some other really bad consequence happen? You would think Greenspan now that he is retired, could enlighten us on this subject. So far I haven't seen any really bad consequence of u.s. federal deficit spending. If that is so, I guess the gov't should give us all a lot of money.
    Mar 19, 2013. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Hides In The Shadows [View article]
    This is a good article, the author obviously has some economics training. " The newly printed money by the Federal Reserve which was aimed at buying bonds and MBS from banking institutions and private lenders is not getting loaned out to consumers for the most part, but stays with the banks, and the banks invest the newly printed money in stocks for quick profits". So the Fed buys an MBS from Goldman Sachs and gs says they don't want to hold an MBS anymore , they want to hold stocks. I'm not sure the Risk Management of banks (especially wfc, c, ba, and more retail banks) allows them to hold tons of common stock. That used to be High Powered Money and that got a multiplier applied to it and that's what effected prices. I think the Fed pays them interest on certain kinds of deposits and I think that's more likely where the money is going. Plus a guaranteed source of the banks making money strengthens the banking system, which the Fed views as a plus. This argument that Fed money printing goes into just stocks, or goes into just commodities, I always found not convincing. But it's clear the Fed is injecting a ton of High Powered Money and there's not significant inflation.
    Mar 19, 2013. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Linked-Insiders Are Selling [View article]
    I don't think insiders selling a company that has gone public in the last 5 years means anything. Most people who have a lot of options with a startup and get the chance to sell them are going to sell a lot them. That said, I agree with the author that lnkd is overvalued, almost laughably so. But the money manager momentum is behind this and it is a very dangerous short.
    Mar 14, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn (2013) Vs. Amazon (1999) [View article]
    Mark, I have enjoyed your articles but I'm not sure I'm with you on this one. I think any company that has just gone public in the last 5 years like lnkd, is going to have a lot of insider selling. I think if you and I worked for a company like that (and I have worked for tech darlings like this before) we would sell, to diversify if nothing else. I tell people a p to e of 100+ is a gift from God, take advantage of it while you can. I'm short lnkd, but not because the insiders are selling. With a more established company (public 20+ years) I might agree with your assessment.
    Feb 25, 2013. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn (2013) Vs. Amazon (1999) [View article]
    pfif.. I'm with you. I think this stock has "low float" (daily shares that trade hands daily are small, relative to the total outstanding). If these funds (mutual, hedge, etc) have huge stakes and it costs a pittance for them to go in on a day that has low volume (< 2 million shares) and nudge the price up, maybe they do it. I have a lot of economics training so this is a paranoid thought. It's hard to believe that retail day traders can drive the stock like this. The other thought I had about the last 25 point jump is I'm sure every retail short and maybe some hedge funds have a stop loss on the upside. If it starts to move up I'm sure it trips a lot of stop loss orders when not a lot of people are selling, hence the 25 point move in one day.
    Feb 22, 2013. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn (2013) Vs. Amazon (1999) [View article]
    Ben, that's funny. We think of fund manager's as intricately precise and accurate, but who knows. One of my theories about tech stocks is if a fund manager can catch some glimpse of the technology, like for crm, the software is on the internet not on the client like office, it gets an immediate 100+ p to e.
    Feb 22, 2013. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn (2013) Vs. Amazon (1999) [View article]
    I think this is a promising approach for trying to figure out these momo stocks. Look at some prior internet darling and try to figure out what p to e or p to s was finally too much. In fact maybe you could do some serious statistics with time series for stock price, shares in the hands of the public, market cap, p to e, p to s, total assets? etc. on lnkd, amzn, crm, vmw, csco and figure out if there is some common breaking point. Normalize all the time series to the ipo and build the time series out from there. Is there a statistician in the house? That said lnkd is really a pain for we value investors. 2 quarters ago, beat earnings and didn't move, last quarter, beat earnings and up 25 points in one day. With amzn lightning struck twice in the same place. Late nineties, p to e > 100, today, can't compute p to e because they lost money last quarter but certainly above 100 again.
    Feb 21, 2013. 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangers Of Shorting Nose-Bleed Valuations [View article]
    Glenn, Absolutely, you really need to be able to put up with adversity. I look at it like a tidal wave. If you're in at the wrong time it's going to be really bad.
    Feb 14, 2013. 08:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangers Of Shorting Nose-Bleed Valuations [View article]
    You look at people running aapl down $300 when it has a p to e in the teens and then you look at lnkd and wonder if you live on the same planet. I'm 1 for 3 on big momo shorts. made money on crm leap puts, lost on amzn and lnkd. csco, aol, msft were once momo stocks and now you can't get them to move to save their lives. But guessing when that transition happens is really, really hard.
    Feb 14, 2013. 12:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TLT: Why This Long-Term Treasury Bond ETF May Be A Good Portfolio Diversifier [View article]
    "No financial institution has as deep pockets or as good information as the Fed. It never has to sell. It does not like to lose money." It's not clear to me the Fed can lose money in any meaningful sense. Say interest rates went up a lot and all the bonds (treasuries, mbs) the fed holds dropped by 25%. I agree that would wipe out any private bank. But the Fed has no stock. The Fed can and does print money to pay any counterparty. At the end of the year they do an income statement and remit to the treasury any money they make. I would doubt that this income statement includes mark to market from the balance sheet. So I'm not sure I can see any unfixable bad effect if the fed loses money. And I'm guessing they are going to lose money when interest rates go up.
    Feb 12, 2013. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Worry About Inflation [View article]
    I have always been curious whether TIPS would surge when there was sudden obvious inflation from a stable state. We may soon get a chance to see that experiment in action.
    Feb 8, 2013. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment