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The Mays Report

 
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  • Fertilizer Vs. Seed, Which One Gives Crop Producers The Most Economic Value?
    Fri, Aug. 22 CF, MON, MOS 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Global population growth guarantees a constant growth in demand for food.
    • Since there is a finite amount of arable land, where will food growth come from?
    • How do seed and fertilizer provide economic value versus risk mitigation.
  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict Adds Premium To Wheat Prices Despite Record Global Production
    Tue, Aug. 19 CORN, SOYB, WEAT Comment!

    Summary

    • Global wheat production raised to a record 716 million metric tons.
    • The need for high quality wheat in the European Union may spur additional Russian wheat export demand.
    • The greater supply of feed quality wheat in Ukraine may crowd out Indian exports this season.
  • Soybean Prices Continue Downtrend Heading Into Record Harvest
    Sun, Aug. 17 SOYB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • While soybean prices have declined alongside the other grains, the decline has been slower.
    • Import demand from China has returned as prices move towards their long-run averages.
    • Farmers in Argentina continue to keep soybean stock off market as currency declines.
  • Plunging Corn Prices Encourage Livestock Producers To Fatten Up The Flock
    Fri, Aug. 15 PPC, TSN, CORN 10 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. corn production estimated at a record 356.4 million metric tons.
    • Falling corn prices allow Tyson Foods and Pilgrims Pride to raise their chickens less expensively.
    • Is the bottom in yet for corn prices?
  • Update: Scotts Miracle-Gro Special Dividend & Share Buyback Announced
    Tue, Aug. 12 SMG Comment!

    Summary

    • Sales in the lawn & garden category at mass retailers slump while home center specialty store sales grow in the low single digits.
    • Despite almost no revenue growth over last 7 years, company sees its long-term growth rate between 3% and 5%.
    • In my opinion, the 42% surge in the price of the stock during 2013 was largely the result of gains in the S&P 500 and remains unwarranted.
  • Mass Retailers Like Wal-Mart Put A Damper On Earnings At Scotts Miracle-Gro
    Mon, Aug. 11 SMG 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Sales in the lawn & garden category at mass retailers slump while home center specialty store sales grow in the low single digits.
    • Despite almost no revenue growth over last 7 years, company sees its long-term growth rate between 3% and 5%.
    • In my opinion, the 42% surge in the price of the stock during 2013 was largely the result of gains in the S&P 500 and remains unwarranted.
  • Pilgrim's Pride Rides Chicken Bull Market As It Revamps Operations
    Thu, Aug. 7 PPC 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Pilgrim's Pride capitalizing on bull market in chicken.
    • Why acquisition will be beneficial to both Pilgrim's Pride & Tyson Foods.
    • Has the stock's performance outperformed the business?
  • Did Mosaic's Q2 Reveal That U-Turn In Fertilizer Business Is Not Just Around Corner?
    Tue, Aug. 5 MOS Comment!

    Summary

    • Phosphate prices have rebounded in 2014 while Potash prices remain relatively flat.
    • Can India Support phosphate prices through the end of the year?
    • Has another standoff between fertilizer and crop producers begun?
  • Compass Minerals Q2 Loss Surprises Investors, Now What?
    Fri, Aug. 1 CMP 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The company's second quarter earnings loss shocked investors and sent shares tumbling.
    • Company expects lost sales to be recovered during third quarter.
    • Have recent price declines been large enough to make the shares more attractive?
  • Lower Feed Costs And Strong Chicken Demand Equals Solid Growth For Tyson Foods
    Thu, Jul. 31 TSN Comment!

    Summary

    • Falling corn and soybean meal feed costs continue to drive earnings growth in Chicken segment.
    • The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by a large margin since March 2013.
    • Does the stock still have room to move higher following such a big move?
  • Potash Corp. Q2 EPS Clears Low Bar, Year Over Year Sales And Earnings Lower
    Tue, Jul. 29 POT 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Potash sales flat year over year on falling prices.
    • Gross margins in phosphate business fall to single digits.
    • Nitrogen business strong on growth in ammonia and ammonium nitrate sales volumes.
  • Q2 Producer Prices Confirm Resolute Potash Pricing Strategy In North America
    Tue, Jul. 29 AGU, CORN, MOS Comment!

    Summary

    • Global and North American Fertilizer Prices Diverge in Q2.
    • Potash price divergence confirms execution of previously announced pricing strategy in North America.
    • Does imposing a firm pricing strategy on a market help stimulate demand?
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth
    Tue, Jul. 15 POT 11 Comments

    Summary

    • How elastic is potash demand to changes in price?
    • What role do sometimes volatile crop prices play in fertilizer pricing?
    • What do changes in the company's dividend policy over the last 3 years signal to investors?
  • Monsanto Hatches New 5-Year Plan - Will It Reap What It Sows?
    Tue, Jul. 8 MON 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Is it truly the decade of the soybean?.
    • Is the goal of doubling EPS and raising gross profits by $4 billion too high?.
    • What should investors be willing to pay for that five years of growth today?.
  • Can Home Depot, Lowe's, And Wal-Mart Stimulate Growth For Scotts Miracle-Gro?
    Thu, Jun. 26 SMG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Can the company's retail partners revive retail growth for Scotts Miracle-Gro after years of virtually no revenue or earnings growth?
    • There was no fundamental reason for the stock of Scotts Miracle-Gro to rise 42% in 2013.
    • Why Scotts Miracle-Gro's stock may only move higher on the back of the broader market.
  • Why Potash Corp. Continues To Cut Production And Jobs
    Dec. 4, 2013 POT 3 Comments
  • Potash And Phosphate Inventories Still Above Year Ago Levels Despite Falling Prices
    Nov. 27, 2013 POT, AGU, CF 1 Comment
  • Sobering Results From Potash Corp. Kick Off Fertilizer Earnings Season
    Oct. 25, 2013 POT 7 Comments
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle?
    Oct. 11, 2013 DD, MOS, POT 20 Comments
  • Potash Inventories Continue To Pile Up While Fertilizer Stocks Try To Rally
    Sep. 17, 2013 AGU, MOS, POT 12 Comments
  • Overall Producer Prices Rise But Prices For Food And Fertilizer Tumble
    Sep. 16, 2013 ADM, AGU, CF 1 Comment
  • Intrepid Potash Will Weather Storm But Less Risky Choices Exist
    Sep. 12, 2013 IPI 8 Comments
  • Why Potash Corp. Is Relatively Overvalued And Will Underperform Peers
    Aug. 6, 2013 POT 48 Comments
  • Mosaic Stumbles In Its Fiscal 2013, Is The Bottom In Yet?
    Jul. 30, 2013 MOS 9 Comments
  • Corn And Soybean Prices Have Opposite Effect On Fertilizer, Food Company Stocks
    Mar. 18, 2013 CORN 5 Comments
  • Agrium Reports Another Record Year. Have Fertilizer Stocks Hit A Cyclical Top?
    Feb. 25, 2013 AGU Comment!
  • Potash Corp., Mosaic, And Agrium Each Get A Share Of Indian Potash Demand
    Feb. 7, 2013 MOS, POT, AGU 6 Comments
  • Potash Closes Disappointing 2012 - What Lies Ahead?
    Feb. 3, 2013 POT 5 Comments
  • Potash Corp. Full-Year Earnings Preview - Things Don't Always Go As Planned
    Jan. 29, 2013 POT 2 Comments
  • Potash Corp Looks To Acquire Israel Chemicals As They Ink Deal With China
    Jan. 24, 2013 POT 3 Comments
  • U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Growth Stagnates In The 21st Century
    Sep. 11, 2012 5 Comments
  • Is It Time To Take Profits From The Summer Rally In Fertilizer Stocks?
    Aug. 28, 2012 CF, CMP, CORN 11 Comments