Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Mosaic (MOS) are tapped by The Street as two companies set to benefit from the expected rise in wheat prices this year. Both stocks trade with valuation still in line with historical norms. [View news story]
1. Wheat prices are going to rise this year? 2. If in the highly unlikely event wheat does rise ADM won't benefit. They will continue to benefit from falling prices.
Mosaic (MOS): FQ3 EPS of $0.81 misses by $0.08. Revenue of $2.24B. (PR) [View news story]
Year over year net earnings up $78M to $345.7M. Increase mostly due to 76.3M year over year currency translation gain of 76.3 million. Excluding the currency translation gain of $32.3M in the company's fiscal Q3, Mosaic EPS (net of taxes) is $0.75,
Corn And Soybean Prices Have Opposite Effect On Fertilizer, Food Company Stocks [View article]
RedBaron, Don't think I could call that a comment, so I will thank you for your continued "contributions". Of course its part of my job to follow weather closely.
The NOAA also released its drought outlook today & the while there is always drought somewhere in the US, drought this year is west of most of the corn belt and conditions are improving according to their map as shown below.
Agrium (AGU -1.2%) shares have shed ~6.5% since its Q4 earnings report, but Scotiabank says the correction is due to weakness in the fertilizer space rather than Jana Partners' complaints or "uneventful" Q4 results. The firm thinks it's time to buy again, seeing retail metrics are improving and U.S. corn acreage and yields coming in below expectations, which could improve sector sentiment. [View news story]
Agree on actual reason for weakness. Not so sure about the rest. To early for that to be anymore than hopium.
Potash Corp., Mosaic, And Agrium Each Get A Share Of Indian Potash Demand [View article]
1GreatCFA, thanks for reading the article. That's a fair question as I have been writing this about Potash Corp. for a year now. I am planning to publish a more comprehensive answer as soon as time permits.
In the meantime the link below describes my initial analysis and basic rationale for why I think the stock is overvalued relative to its peer group. http://seekingalpha.co...
I hope this helps until then. Thanks again for reading the article.
Potash Corp., Mosaic, And Agrium Each Get A Share Of Indian Potash Demand [View article]
Barry, that is a great observation and entirely possible. At this point its anyone's guess. Its also possible that Canpotex gets half of the remaining tons.
I doubt the ICL dividend policy will be affected by this deal alone. However, the dividend does in fact pass through POT's income statement. If they had been successful in buying that 25% stake last summer profits and losses would also be affected by changes in the fair(market) value of the stock. Instead, those changes flow through OCI.
Potash Closes Disappointing 2012 - What Lies Ahead? [View article]
Barry, as always thanks for reading the article. I did mention that the company's nitrogen business segment was only about 30% of overall revenues. For the time being potash and phosphate is what drives this company forward and I think its important for them to address pricing.
Doyle did talk about being in a JIT world. However, this is the first time he said this. Its been a JIT world for a long time in other industries. Dealers in the fertilizer industry were burned badly on price in late 2008/2009 and they have not forgotten this. So like any prudent retailer they are watching carefully.
Hope this helps. Thanks again for reading article.
Potash Closes Disappointing 2012 - What Lies Ahead? [View article]
Dan, thanks for reading the article. I have written about the price issues in the potash market (dealer, reluctance to take on inventory risk, India & China) for more than a year.
Rather than rehash those issues I invite you to view my profile and review articles related to both MOS and POT. This should catch you up. Thanks again for reading the article on superbowl Sunday, I appreciate it.
Potash Corp. Full-Year Earnings Preview - Things Don't Always Go As Planned [View article]
Hi Barry, thanks for reading the article. I also thank you for the comment as it lets me know that I'm doing the job in the way that I've intended.
As for Potash Corp, I always expect management to put the most positive spin they can on the situation. Until I see dealers make more than a short term commitment, I'll take a wait and see attitude. IMO their stubbornness on potash pricing in 2012 will be costly to them for a while longer.
You are right, Investors seem to have a short memory as the stock is up more than 5% YTD. However, my models indicate that about 80% of that move is explained by the recent surge in the S&P500.
Potash Corp Looks To Acquire Israel Chemicals As They Ink Deal With China [View article]
Hi Barry, thanks for reading the article. I need to make a couple of points here. 1) Potash withdrew an offer in June 2012 to acquire roughly 25% of ICL but withdrew the offer because they felt a decision was taking too long. It remains unclear if the Govt. of Israel will allow them to increase their stake.
Even if they did approve a deal allowing Potash to acquire 25% of the company the amount of revenue redirected to the income statement would likely be immaterial. What would be significant is that a stake that high would likely give them a seat or two on the board of directors. This would provide the company with a degree of control over the direction of the firm, which in this case would be far more material than any incremental share of profits flowing to the income statement in my opinion.
Has The Size Of The U.S. Labor Force Reached Its Peak? [View article]
d nova, thanks for commenting on this fairly old article. Actually, the labor force size exceeded 154.9M in May 2012 for the first time, only to fall back after a few months. I mentioned this in a September 2012 article.
Also note the that this is a time of year that many temporary seasonal workers have reentered the labor force for the holiday season. The larger point is that historically the size of the labor force grows parallel to the working age population. That is no longer happening in the US labor market.
Thanks for your interest in this and for reading the article.
Are Unyielding Corn Prices Zapping U.S. Exports? [View article]
Mr. Lowery, thanks for reading the article. However, price is the reason US and other companies/countries are importing corn rather than buying domestically. Of course there are always specific exceptions.
Fairly recent data (Early October) show US corn priced at $318 per ton, with Argentina at $267 and Brazil at $235 per ton.
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Growth Stagnates In The 21st Century [View article]
Mr. Jensen, Thank you for reading the article and for you comment. Your comments regarding education are well taken & has been cited many times in the media.
However, I am not so sure the data bears this out. Through 2009 only 30.1% of Americans had a college degree although more than 80% have at least attended college. The 30.1% number was at the time an all-time high (Census data).
In 1975 only 11% of Americans had a college degree and that was a high at the time. Two companies, Apple (1975), & Microsoft (1976), followed some years later by Dell (1984) were started around that time by "college dropouts".
I agree without reservation that education is of the utmost importance and it is always the most cited reason by corporations and media alike. I would also agree that our system is broken due for a variety of reasons. (Adding to your list, facebook, twitter, smart phones etc. also add to the fragmentation we see in American society.) What ever happened to reading books?
But in my opinion Americans, given the opportunity are always ready to excel, given proper training. Thanks again for reading the article and I appreciate your comment.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Mosaic (MOS) are tapped by The Street as two companies set to benefit from the expected rise in wheat prices this year. Both stocks trade with valuation still in line with historical norms. [View news story]
Mosaic (MOS): FQ3 EPS of $0.81 misses by $0.08. Revenue of $2.24B. (PR) [View news story]
Corn And Soybean Prices Have Opposite Effect On Fertilizer, Food Company Stocks [View article]
The NOAA also released its drought outlook today & the while there is always drought somewhere in the US, drought this year is west of most of the corn belt and conditions are improving according to their map as shown below.
Here is a link:
http://goo.gl/iqBmX
As I conclude in the above report, weather can & often does change on a dime and investors need to be aware of this. Thanks again.
Corn And Soybean Prices Have Opposite Effect On Fertilizer, Food Company Stocks [View article]
If it weren't for divergent opinions there would be no markets to invest in. I hope you both continue to read and offer your opinions.
Agrium (AGU -1.2%) shares have shed ~6.5% since its Q4 earnings report, but Scotiabank says the correction is due to weakness in the fertilizer space rather than Jana Partners' complaints or "uneventful" Q4 results. The firm thinks it's time to buy again, seeing retail metrics are improving and U.S. corn acreage and yields coming in below expectations, which could improve sector sentiment. [View news story]
Potash Corp., Mosaic, And Agrium Each Get A Share Of Indian Potash Demand [View article]
Thus the market prices this group most closely using the price-to-sales multiple, not PE. In fact, this holds true for many industry classifications.
In my opinion price-to-sales is how this industry should be priced if one is going to use price multiples.
Thanks again for reading the article and for your comment.
Potash Corp., Mosaic, And Agrium Each Get A Share Of Indian Potash Demand [View article]
In the meantime the link below describes my initial analysis and basic rationale for why I think the stock is overvalued relative to its peer group.
http://seekingalpha.co...
I hope this helps until then. Thanks again for reading the article.
Potash Corp., Mosaic, And Agrium Each Get A Share Of Indian Potash Demand [View article]
I doubt the ICL dividend policy will be affected by this deal alone. However, the dividend does in fact pass through POT's income statement. If they had been successful in buying that 25% stake last summer profits and losses would also be affected by changes in the fair(market) value of the stock. Instead, those changes flow through OCI.
Thanks for reading article.
Potash Closes Disappointing 2012 - What Lies Ahead? [View article]
Doyle did talk about being in a JIT world. However, this is the first time he said this. Its been a JIT world for a long time in other industries. Dealers in the fertilizer industry were burned badly on price in late 2008/2009 and they have not forgotten this. So like any prudent retailer they are watching carefully.
Hope this helps. Thanks again for reading article.
Potash Closes Disappointing 2012 - What Lies Ahead? [View article]
Rather than rehash those issues I invite you to view my profile and review articles related to both MOS and POT. This should catch you up. Thanks again for reading the article on superbowl Sunday, I appreciate it.
Potash Corp. Full-Year Earnings Preview - Things Don't Always Go As Planned [View article]
As for Potash Corp, I always expect management to put the most positive spin they can on the situation. Until I see dealers make more than a short term commitment, I'll take a wait and see attitude. IMO their stubbornness on potash pricing in 2012 will be costly to them for a while longer.
You are right, Investors seem to have a short memory as the stock is up more than 5% YTD. However, my models indicate that about 80% of that move is explained by the recent surge in the S&P500.
Thanks again for reading the article.
Potash Corp Looks To Acquire Israel Chemicals As They Ink Deal With China [View article]
Even if they did approve a deal allowing Potash to acquire 25% of the company the amount of revenue redirected to the income statement would likely be immaterial. What would be significant is that a stake that high would likely give them a seat or two on the board of directors. This would provide the company with a degree of control over the direction of the firm, which in this case would be far more material than any incremental share of profits flowing to the income statement in my opinion.
Barry, thanks again for reading the article.
Has The Size Of The U.S. Labor Force Reached Its Peak? [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Also note the that this is a time of year that many temporary seasonal workers have reentered the labor force for the holiday season. The larger point is that historically the size of the labor force grows parallel to the working age population. That is no longer happening in the US labor market.
Thanks for your interest in this and for reading the article.
Are Unyielding Corn Prices Zapping U.S. Exports? [View article]
Fairly recent data (Early October) show US corn priced at $318 per ton, with Argentina at $267 and Brazil at $235 per ton.
Thanks again for reading the article.
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Growth Stagnates In The 21st Century [View article]
Thank you for reading the article and for you comment. Your comments regarding education are well taken & has been cited many times in the media.
However, I am not so sure the data bears this out. Through 2009 only 30.1% of Americans had a college degree although more than 80% have at least attended college. The 30.1% number was at the time an all-time high (Census data).
In 1975 only 11% of Americans had a college degree and that was a high at the time. Two companies, Apple (1975), & Microsoft (1976), followed some years later by Dell (1984) were started around that time by "college dropouts".
I agree without reservation that education is of the utmost importance and it is always the most cited reason by corporations and media alike. I would also agree that our system is broken due for a variety of reasons. (Adding to your list, facebook, twitter, smart phones etc. also add to the fragmentation we see in American society.) What ever happened to reading books?
But in my opinion Americans, given the opportunity are always ready to excel, given proper training. Thanks again for reading the article and I appreciate your comment.