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  • Fertilizer Vs. Seed, Which One Gives Crop Producers The Most Economic Value? [View article]
    NL2, thanks for your comments. Don't cover irrigation companies although during the drought of 2012 I suspected that those farmers with irrigation systems were smiling all the way to the bank although they all remained mum when asked. :-)

    As for fertilizer, either prices or volumes will decline. We will have to wait and see how that plays out. Thanks again.
    Aug 22 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fertilizer Vs. Seed, Which One Gives Crop Producers The Most Economic Value? [View article]
    James, thanks for reading the article. I actually removed Syngenta AG during the editing process but yes, as a seed and crop protection company they offer a degree of risk mitigation as well that allows them to have similar pricing power as Monsanto. Mays Research does not cover S&W seed company at this time as their primary seed is alfalfa, a crop that Mays Research does not follow at this time. They do have a foot print in the wheat market but it is small.

    As I have written previously the fertilizer companies are leaving a period of "perceived" above avg growth and settling into a place where valuation based on dividend growth will become more important than revenues and/or EPS. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Aug 22 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fertilizer Vs. Seed, Which One Gives Crop Producers The Most Economic Value? [View article]
    Lanza,
    Thank you for reading the article and for your comments. Yes, equipment is a necessary part of the equation and investment in equipment is now declining alongside falling prices, which places farm equipment mfg in the same boat as fertilizer companies. Since equipment is a durable good, it does not require replenishment on a continuous basis.

    Presently I don't cover the farm equipment companies so am unable to offer any opinion on valuation etc., beyond knowing that orders in that area are declining. Thanks again for your comment.
    Aug 22 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soybean Prices Continue Downtrend Heading Into Record Harvest [View article]
    Burt, thanks for reading the article and for your comment. Actually, corn represents the highest pct. of input costs for poultry producers with soybean meal a close second.

    I wrote in March 2013 about how I thought both Tyson Foods and Archer Daniels Midland would benefit from falling crop prices. They have indeed. Here is a link:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I've also recently written about both Pilgrim Pride & Tyson Foods. Check those recent articles out via my profile for my most recently published thoughts. Thanks again for reading and for your great comment.
    Aug 19 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plunging Corn Prices Encourage Livestock Producers To Fatten Up The Flock [View article]
    NL2, thanks for reading the article. Great comment as well.

    What's happening is a typical illustration of a how a business cycle affects different parts of a value chain. High crop prices benefited those upstream in the value chain like farmers as well as seed and fertilizer companies while firms downstream in the value chain closed plants and laid off workers to become more efficient. Now things are reversing as they will again and again.

    As I have written about extensively, fertilizer companies are seeing lower revenues and profits for the reasons you mentioned in my opinion. Seed companies, however, seem to be able to pass on prices increases despite the falling prices. Thanks for adding to the discussion.
    Aug 17 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plunging Corn Prices Encourage Livestock Producers To Fatten Up The Flock [View article]
    User 12224101, thanks for reading the article and for your comments. Aware of the recent drought reports. Production estimates in China were unchanged this month after increasing by 2MMT in July. As stated in the article, feed demand continues to be negatively impacted by animal disease.

    Given that China typically maintains a stocks-to-use ratio in excess of 30% a material gain in an already low level of corn imports is less likely. As the data changes so will the analysis and forecast. Thanks again for reading the article and for your comments.
    Aug 16 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plunging Corn Prices Encourage Livestock Producers To Fatten Up The Flock [View article]
    Greg, thanks for reading the article. I don't compile fish production and / or price data (If I ever begin covering a company where these data points are key I'll do so). However, I'm sure someone somewhere in the world does.

    Thanks again for reading the article and for your comments.
    Aug 15 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mass Retailers Like Wal-Mart Put A Damper On Earnings At Scotts Miracle-Gro [View article]
    HorgeSPhatOne, thanks for reading the article. One of the reasons I have not made a sell or short recommendation is because of the stock's high correlation with the S&P500.

    I describe that relationship in this article.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Given that relationship and the markets seeming insistence on marching higher shorting the stock outright or using puts may not be a high probability event despite the firms obvious lack of growth in my opinion. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Aug 11 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mass Retailers Like Wal-Mart Put A Damper On Earnings At Scotts Miracle-Gro [View article]
    Sirrealone, thanks for reading the article and better yet, outstanding anecdotal evidence from an actual consumer!

    The company discussed getting beat on price during the conference call. Seems that every year there is some external reason the company can't grow when the actual reason is simply that they can't in my opinion.

    Thanks again for reading the article.
    Aug 11 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Q2 EPS Clears Low Bar, Year Over Year Sales And Earnings Lower [View article]
    Baerrus & jion, thanks for reading the article. A relatively short-run event like Ukraine has no affect on the sustainable long-run growth rate of Potash Corp. or long run market dynamics. Good luck trying to short-term trade an event like Ukraine. Thanks again for your comments.
    Jul 29 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth [View article]
    Greg, thank you for your continued interest in my reports. I have written multiple reports regarding my opinion of the relationship between fertilizer and crop prices over the last few years. Wish I could point you to do a specific report but I am unable to at this time. I invite you take a look at my profile and look through the list of articles, perhaps those based off producer price reports.

    When I think it is an appropriate time, I will likely publish an updated view on this. Right now I think that what's available is sufficient. Thanks again for participating.
    Jul 17 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth [View article]
    Gregory, I wrote a report with my thoughts on a URALL & BPC reunion a month ago.

    The link is here.
    http://goo.gl/1jFfwF

    Thanks again for participating.
    Jul 16 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth [View article]
    Gregory, thanks for reading the article. You ask many questions. Enough in fact to require another article to offer my opinion. :-)

    While its obvious that fertilizer adds to yield, right now I think producers feel they are getting more out of the cost/value equation in seeds as evidenced by Monsanto's ability to pass on price increases. I offer my opinion on the role of crop prices in the piece.

    Sure, macro-economic conditions India are affecting their level of purchases of fertilizer and many other things. A weak domestic currency makes it more expensive to import.

    Finally, markets generally follow what they consider hot at the moment. This is a reflection of Wall Streets desire for growth and excitement. That's always been the case.
    Thanks again for reading the article and for your comment.
    Jul 16 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Continues Pricing Strategy And Enters Period Of Lower Growth [View article]
    Dydd, thanks for reading the article.

    Concerning Capital expenditures and FCF, in paragraph 6 I mention that the companies capital expenditures are winding down as it is related to the increased payout in my opinion. BTW, capital expenditure information is available from most firms’ cash flow statements as well as in its MD & A. My CF model goes back to 2006. I chose to discuss it in a way that in my opinion was relevant to the report.

    As for cash flow, in my opinion the FCF of Potash Corp., whether FCFF or FCFE, shows no pattern consistent enough to estimate a growth rate valid enough to make a sensible valuation based on FCF in my opinion. Many like to write about and discuss discounted valuations based on about FCF, dividends, etc. without realizing how sensitive these valuations are to the growth assumption, which is more difficult to quantify than risk in my view. Generally, if in my judgment, I cannot make what I consider a reliable estimate I will not discuss publicly
    .
    Dydd, thanks again for your comment.
    Jul 16 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Home Depot, Lowe's, And Wal-Mart Stimulate Growth For Scotts Miracle-Gro? [View article]
    freecookie, thanks for reading the article and for pointing out that oversight.

    A correction has been submitted to editorial team. However, this change has no affect on my overall financial analysis or opinion on the stock. Thanks again.
    Jul 9 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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