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  • Why Potash Corp. Continues To Cut Production And Jobs [View article]
    Hi Zvi Bar, thanks for reading the article.

    I don't think it has ever been a question of survival and I don't think there will be a price war. It's a cyclical business that is currently in a trough. The trough may be a bit extended, which in this case is simply an equal and opposite reaction to nearly per $900 ton potash that burned dealers badly in late 2008/09. Thanks for your comments.
    Dec 4 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sobering Results From Potash Corp. Kick Off Fertilizer Earnings Season [View article]
    tiger8896, thanks for reading the article. Your assumption about fertilizer demand is incorrect. What price producers expect to receive for their crop impact what they are willing to pay for fertilizer as well as other inputs.

    Crop prices will only rise so high before people start using substitutes. As an example, last summer corn, wheat, & soy meal feed became so expensive that some producers started feeding their cattle candy, etc. Smaller ethanol plants closed. Population growth's effect on prices is cancelled out by the amount & combination of foodstuffs substitution available to us at a given time.

    Still not a bad cyclical business to have the portfolio in from time to time IMO. Thanks again for reading article.
    Oct 26 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sobering Results From Potash Corp. Kick Off Fertilizer Earnings Season [View article]
    just a user, thanks for reading the article and for pointing out the missed edit. The SA editors have been given the correction.

    As for POT, just remember as the next upswing begins, the fertilizer business is NOT a growth business, it is a CYCLICAL one, subject to the same BOOM & BUST cycles as the grains, cocoa, rice, cotton, etc. markets.

    Thanks again for reading and for noting the missed edit.
    Oct 26 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    Cambrian Capitalist, I am not here to defend any stock. I am an analyst that has covered the ag chemicals industry and grains markets for several years offering a opinion and continuing analysis of events. We happen to disagree on a few points; that's what makes a market. Appreciate your comments and thanks for reading the article.
    Oct 14 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    Actually, Monsanto has been a very consistent performer revenue and earning wise in an industry that is subject to boom/bust cycles at times, especially when compared to the more volatile cyclical earnings of the fertilizer companies.

    In my opinion management does a very good job of setting expectations. Not sure if market conditions will allow them to see they growth they forecast for 2014. They are a lot more transparent than some others in the industry.

    Dupont has one operating segment in the ag chemicals space so no valid comparison exists between the two really. DuPonts industry classification does not put them in the ag chemicals space.Thanks for your comments.
    Oct 13 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    Cambrian Capitalist, not being no #1 in one or more businesses certainly does not make a conglomerate a bad investment.
    I'm not knocking DuPont, these are simply common traits among conglomerates. They do tend to lock up rather than unlock value due to the reasons stated above. It has nothing to do with a decision of whether or not to chase margins. That's a strategic decision that can be undertaken by any type of business. Thanks for your comments.
    Oct 13 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    a_partlow, thanks for reading and offering that interesting insight. Saying you are going to get price increase in the next fiscal year and executing on that plan can be two different things. Thanks again for that contribution.
    Oct 13 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    funfun, thanks for reading the article and for your comments.

    Its not unusual for conglomerates like DuPont to play second fiddle or worse in many of it businesses. Each business requires different kinds of expertise and that's hard to successfully integrate under one roof.

    Thanks again.
    Oct 12 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    Cambrian Capitalist, thanks for reading the article. I did not offer a valuation opinion on Dupont because their agriculture business represents 20% of overall revenues. The company has 13 businesses organized into 8 operating segments. Thus, Dupont's seed business alone is not enough to offer a valuation opinion or a comparison to Monsanto in my view.

    Dupont seed business does offer a chance to compare/verify pricing power and costs. I hope this helps. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Oct 12 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Inventories Continue To Pile Up While Fertilizer Stocks Try To Rally [View article]
    I want to thank everyone for their comments & apologize for not providing any immediate feedback to your various opinions as I was a bit under the weather. I cover the ag chemicals industry and grains markets and have for more than 4 years. I look forward to your future comments.
    Sep 27 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Inventories Continue To Pile Up While Fertilizer Stocks Try To Rally [View article]
    Rhianni32, thanks for reading the article. As originally stated above, If you can't see that the ending inventory chart provided by Potash Corp illustrates that inventories are higher both year over year and of the 5 year avg. then I don't know how to be any clearer. Thanks for reading the article and sorry for the delayed response.
    Sep 27 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Inventories Continue To Pile Up While Fertilizer Stocks Try To Rally [View article]
    MMM76, thanks for reading the article. If you can't see that the ending inventory chart provided by Potash Corp illustrates then I don't know how to be any clearer. Thanks for reading the article and sorry for the delayed response.
    Sep 27 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Inventories Continue To Pile Up While Fertilizer Stocks Try To Rally [View article]
    stocks3066, thanks for reading the article. As the disclosure states, I have no position in any stock mentioned in this article. I cover the ag chemicals and grains market. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Sep 27 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intrepid Potash Will Weather Storm But Less Risky Choices Exist [View article]
    SBCapital,

    Your POV makes a certain assumptions about the proposed sale of the 22% stake that I don't share. But even if we assume that any such sale will cause those two companies to agree to operate Joint Venture again, it still does not deal with the farm economics based crop prices that will almost certainly be lower a couple of months from now.

    As with any cyclical business, cycle will eventually recover and upswing, I just happen to think it will take more than the exchange of a few shares before it happens. Thanks again. I appreciate your contribution.
    Sep 15 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intrepid Potash Will Weather Storm But Less Risky Choices Exist [View article]
    SBCapital, thanks for reading the article. Yes high volatility is there on the up & downside for IPI, which is one of the reasons I prefer the larger producers (lower downside risk).

    Your point regarding the plant capacity/productivity upgrades are also well taken. However, expanded production capacity / productivity does not have nearly the impact that price & volume do on gross margins.

    After potash prices trough (after crop prices their bottom) and a new cyclical upswing begins those plant upgrades will help margins look better. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Sep 15 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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