Global Wheat Supply and Demand Estimates Stabilize in January [View article]
bob adamson, thanks for reading the article. I wrote about the situation in Australia last month. The events in Egypt will also have an impact going forward.
It seemed as though every thing that could happen came to pass during that time frame. I am very surprised by the relative quiet of late. We will have more US news on Friday. Stay tuned.
1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
I guess its all relative and getting by means different things to different people. I have not heard of anyone content with unemployment since way back when I was a kid and someone got laid off from a factory of some sort, they were content to collect unemployment until they were called back, because they knew they would be.
It should also be noted that one is required to look for work while unemployed in most if not all states. Any week you do not apply for a minimum number of positions you do not receive a check.
Just estimating here, but if you are speaking if 10 people you know, this is hardly a big enough sample size to statistically broad stroke a population of 13.863 million unemployed people.
I know educated, highly motivated people with great track records who have literally sent out "hundreds" of resumes and never even received a phone call. Quite frankly knowing where some of them live I do not blame them for "giving up".
It depends on what your skill set is and where you live, in this new global society we must be prepared to be mobile and move where the work is or learn to "create the money" when needed. However, some are pinned down by homes etc.
No system is perfect. I don't think the guy or gal who goes to work everyday to stand around the water cooler, gossip and stare at his/her smart phone reading facebook posts while collecting a paycheck is any better than the contented unemployed person. You go to work to work and be productive enough each to cover your wage and then some, not to socialize. That kind of behavior is just another form of entitlement. This sort of person only has a job due to political maneuvering, not ability. They both need to be weeded out of the system in my judgment.
1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
The size of an unemployment check is not big enough to "get comfortable" on. In many cases they are not enough to keep an independent roof over one's head but enough to keep one from starving.
The truth of the matter is that many of them will end up homeless and unfortunately, forgotten about.
1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
Moon Kil Woong, I wrote an article about what you are speaking of entitled "Just how relevant is American Labor" back in December that shows the decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Once again, we are in agreement.
The data I used for the article came from the government. The formula for calculating the ratio is well known and readily available. Let me be clear, I have not said once that the Govt. is a benevolent beast. Just that we will find whatever it is that we seek with application of some effort.
1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
Moon Kil Woong, While I agree with and appreciate your sentiments, it is not statistical lying. The unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of number of people unemployed to the total labor force or: "unemployed / total labor force"
If the a person gives up looking for work then the numerator gets smaller and thus, so does the unemployment rate.
What I take issue with is media spin. When a media organization (print or television) announces that the unemployment rate dropped to 9% without offering an explanation they are trying to be deceptive in a way that relies on the public not making any more effort than reading or listening to that headline or blurb.
That's the way the calculation works and it can't be changed, all of the relevant information is fully disclosed, we just have to read it. As citizens we have a civic responsibility to find out what is really the case but unfortunately, most of us would rather be entertained than well informed.
RJM2, you said I was bloviating which means to talk in an inflated or empty way and you quoted the disclosure quote as an example of my bloviating.
I'm sorry but I do not understand your issue here. You assume that I don't own the stock, my disclosure says that I don't have a position in the stock, I just do not see how that is bloviating or how you have traded the stock in the past or present is relevant to a research article.
RJM2, I assume you meant bloviating and your assumption is incorrect.
Seeking Alpha will place that at the bottom of any article that it chooses to publish on their web site, whether a stock is mentioned in the article or not. I assume you are familiar with SEC regulations regarding disclosures etc.
4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
There are ways to value a firm using either FCF model which allows different rates of growth (g) to be used at different stages, to estimate a either a sudden decline in growth or you can have the growth rate decline in a linear fashion to its long term rate of growth which always winds up being the LT sustainable growth rate of GDP. The analyst (you) must create your own or use another estimate.
The concept of a risk free rate is a VERY IMPORTANT part of assigning risk and it is a component of most if not all risk models. As the first commenter said, using the ratio of FCF and the RFR to value firm is simply an incorrect use of it.
My original message to the author still stands. Good try. Just keep learning. The financial markets are dynamic, one must always be open to new information, to change, to learn something new. There are many things that go into making a sound equity valuation.
4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
ValueInvesting2, I will just say this....just because it is on a web site does not make it correct. The web site also states that this is their "best guess" of his "formula". Utterly ridiculous. It's WRONG!
This sort of discounting is based on the work of John Burr Williams. This sort of model is called a "absolute valuation model". Mr. Buffett learned from Williams, Dodd and Graham like we all have.
Furthermore, an analyst knows how determine weather or not earnings are of "high quality" or are being managed by company management.
ValueInvesting2, thanks for the reply but I would prefer to see an author valuing securities do so using the proper tools and not so confidently giving a web site credibility because it has "wiki" in its name. There is no "secret" to valuing companies. There is only those who understand AND do the work and those who do neither.
4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
Adding this additional comment because I inadvertently hit reply before I was done and the software will not allow me to edit my original comment.
Regarding estimating rates of growth: you must learn how to estimate the rate of growth in earnings, dividends, FCF, Residual Income or whatever it is you are discounting to find a firms value. The firms value is VERY sensitive to changes in both the required return and growth rate.
4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
You are not discounting FCF correctly. Also make sure you understand the difference between FCFF and FCFE. Whether you use FCFF or FCFE you need to discount by either the WACC or cost of equity for the firm minus a projected growth rate. "WACC or Re - g"
You need to research how to calculate a WACC (Weighted average cost of capital and the cost of equity) you also need to learn how to estimate the rate of growth in earnings / dividends.
Because of your error you have a denominator that is clearly too small which is causing you to overvalue these firms by a HUGE amount! You have a ways to go in your journey to learn how to properly value equity using free cash flow valuation methods. Keep learning!
Consumer Price Increases Being Absorbed by Retailers, For How Long? [View article]
Logical Thought, great point! It appears that companies are maintaining profitability by not hiring and freezing existing wages rather than trying to pass on these costs.
Regarding Meredith Whitney and her predicted crises with states and municipalities:
Of course you are right about what effect an economic upturn would have on a given states or municipalities income statement and thus operating leverage. However, I think Ms. Whitney is more concerned about financial leverage, due to the high level of borrowing that so many states and municipalities have engaged in during the extreme upturn and have generally continued to do since the downturn began.
I have not studied the problem directly so I do not have any specific examples to use but what I am driving at here is, do you think that the difference between your forecast of a some defaults 2011 and her forecast of a full blown crises is simply that she is also looking at the high level of borrowing and relatively higher interest rates that must be paid by states in addition to operating activities?
Initial Jobless Claims Jump but Data Is Still Noisy [View article]
Berated, thanks for reading the article. The blue line or series representing the "three spikes" represents the series of "unadjusted" initial jobless claims.
If you look a little closer there are actually five "spikes" in the unadjusted data. The three large spikes represent what is a annual increase in the number of unadjusted initial jobless claims occurring in the mid November to mid January time frame. There is also a smaller spike which occurs annually between mid June and July. Why these spikes occur semi-annually year at the approximately the same time is unclear.
I included it in the article because people tend to switch between adjusted and unadjusted data to suit their positions on the trend or direction of initial claims. I wanted to illustrate pragmatically that these semi-annual increases in the NSA number as well the semi-annual declines in the same period of the SA number are normal and should not be used to make an argument in either direction about employment trends.
I hope this helps. Thanks again for reading The Mays Report.
Initial Jobless Claims Jump but Data Is Still Noisy [View article]
micmars, thanks for reading the article. You and I are on the same page. I said the data is noisy right now because, well, it is.
I wrote an article about the employment to population ratio a few months ago showed the long term decline in the ratio. Check it out: seekingalpha.com/artic...
This article does not state that the jobs picture is improving, It stays that the number of initial claims is trending down. This does not equate to the employment situation improving.
Global Wheat Supply and Demand Estimates Stabilize in January [View article]
seekingalpha.com/artic...
It seemed as though every thing that could happen came to pass during that time frame. I am very surprised by the relative quiet of late. We will have more US news on Friday. Stay tuned.
1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
It should also be noted that one is required to look for work while unemployed in most if not all states. Any week you do not apply for a minimum number of positions you do not receive a check.
Just estimating here, but if you are speaking if 10 people you know, this is hardly a big enough sample size to statistically broad stroke a population of 13.863 million unemployed people.
I know educated, highly motivated people with great track records who have literally sent out "hundreds" of resumes and never even received a phone call. Quite frankly knowing where some of them live I do not blame them for "giving up".
It depends on what your skill set is and where you live, in this new global society we must be prepared to be mobile and move where the work is or learn to "create the money" when needed. However, some are pinned down by homes etc.
No system is perfect. I don't think the guy or gal who goes to work everyday to stand around the water cooler, gossip and stare at his/her smart phone reading facebook posts while collecting a paycheck is any better than the contented unemployed person. You go to work to work and be productive enough each to cover your wage and then some, not to socialize. That kind of behavior is just another form of entitlement. This sort of person only has a job due to political maneuvering, not ability. They both need to be weeded out of the system in my judgment.
I've enjoyed the back and forth.
1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
The truth of the matter is that many of them will end up homeless and unfortunately, forgotten about.
1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
I wrote an article about what you are speaking of entitled "Just how relevant is American Labor" back in December that shows the decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Once again, we are in agreement.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
The data I used for the article came from the government. The formula for calculating the ratio is well known and readily available. Let me be clear, I have not said once that the Govt. is a benevolent beast. Just that we will find whatever it is that we seek with application of some effort.
1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
If the a person gives up looking for work then the numerator gets smaller and thus, so does the unemployment rate.
What I take issue with is media spin. When a media organization (print or television) announces that the unemployment rate dropped to 9% without offering an explanation they are trying to be deceptive in a way that relies on the public not making any more effort than reading or listening to that headline or blurb.
That's the way the calculation works and it can't be changed, all of the relevant information is fully disclosed, we just have to read it. As citizens we have a civic responsibility to find out what is really the case but unfortunately, most of us would rather be entertained than well informed.
Housing, Unemployment Stifling Tuesday Morning Shares [View article]
I'm sorry but I do not understand your issue here. You assume that I don't own the stock, my disclosure says that I don't have a position in the stock, I just do not see how that is bloviating or how you have traded the stock in the past or present is relevant to a research article.
Thanks again for reading the article.
Housing, Unemployment Stifling Tuesday Morning Shares [View article]
Seeking Alpha will place that at the bottom of any article that it chooses to publish on their web site, whether a stock is mentioned in the article or not. I assume you are familiar with SEC regulations regarding disclosures etc.
Thank you for taking the time read the article.
4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
The concept of a risk free rate is a VERY IMPORTANT part of assigning risk and it is a component of most if not all risk models. As the first commenter said, using the ratio of FCF and the RFR to value firm is simply an incorrect use of it.
My original message to the author still stands. Good try. Just keep learning. The financial markets are dynamic, one must always be open to new information, to change, to learn something new. There are many things that go into making a sound equity valuation.
4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
This sort of discounting is based on the work of John Burr Williams. This sort of model is called a "absolute valuation model". Mr. Buffett learned from Williams, Dodd and Graham like we all have.
Furthermore, an analyst knows how determine weather or not earnings are of "high quality" or are being managed by company management.
ValueInvesting2, thanks for the reply but I would prefer to see an author valuing securities do so using the proper tools and not so confidently giving a web site credibility because it has "wiki" in its name. There is no "secret" to valuing companies. There is only those who understand AND do the work and those who do neither.
4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
Regarding estimating rates of growth: you must learn how to estimate the rate of growth in earnings, dividends, FCF, Residual Income or whatever it is you are discounting to find a firms value. The firms value is VERY sensitive to changes in both the required return and growth rate.
4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
You need to research how to calculate a WACC (Weighted average cost of capital and the cost of equity) you also need to learn how to estimate the rate of growth in earnings / dividends.
Because of your error you have a denominator that is clearly too small which is causing you to overvalue these firms by a HUGE amount! You have a ways to go in your journey to learn how to properly value equity using free cash flow valuation methods. Keep learning!
Consumer Price Increases Being Absorbed by Retailers, For How Long? [View article]
Thanks for reading the article.
Cautious Optimism for 2011 [View article]
Of course you are right about what effect an economic upturn would have on a given states or municipalities income statement and thus operating leverage. However, I think Ms. Whitney is more concerned about financial leverage, due to the high level of borrowing that so many states and municipalities have engaged in during the extreme upturn and have generally continued to do since the downturn began.
I have not studied the problem directly so I do not have any specific examples to use but what I am driving at here is, do you think that the difference between your forecast of a some defaults 2011 and her forecast of a full blown crises is simply that she is also looking at the high level of borrowing and relatively higher interest rates that must be paid by states in addition to operating activities?
Initial Jobless Claims Jump but Data Is Still Noisy [View article]
If you look a little closer there are actually five "spikes" in the unadjusted data. The three large spikes represent what is a annual increase in the number of unadjusted initial jobless claims occurring in the mid November to mid January time frame. There is also a smaller spike which occurs annually between mid June and July. Why these spikes occur semi-annually year at the approximately the same time is unclear.
I included it in the article because people tend to switch between adjusted and unadjusted data to suit their positions on the trend or direction of initial claims. I wanted to illustrate pragmatically that these semi-annual increases in the NSA number as well the semi-annual declines in the same period of the SA number are normal and should not be used to make an argument in either direction about employment trends.
I hope this helps. Thanks again for reading The Mays Report.
Initial Jobless Claims Jump but Data Is Still Noisy [View article]
I wrote an article about the employment to population ratio a few months ago showed the long term decline in the ratio. Check it out:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
This article does not state that the jobs picture is improving, It stays that the number of initial claims is trending down. This does not equate to the employment situation improving.
Thanks again for reading my article.