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  • 3 Stocks You Might Want to Avoid [View article]
    Pattersonsean, thanks for reading the article. Most of what I write about involves the Macro Economy. Here is a link to piece I recently wrote regarding my prognosis for the economy.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    My profile has links to other recent macroeconomic pieces I have published here as well. Thanks again for reading.
    Aug 18, 2011. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Relationship Between Corporate Profits and U.S. GDP Growth Appears to Have Ended [View article]
    Loverofham, thank you for taking the time to comment. Trends can change over time but since 2006 there is only a 10% correlation between corporate profits and US GDP growth. 53.7% of sales is not much if it has fallen from 90% of sales twenty years earlier.

    The US, euro zone and Japan are advanced economies and will probably not grow more than 2.0 to 3.0 a year at best due to demographic changes, (aging population etc.) Sales of a mature corporation in a mature industry will generally track its countries domestic GDP growth unless they make strategic changes so they invest heavily in emerging market economies with a growing middle class that's growing 6.0-9.0 percent a year.

    The point I was attempting to make was that without a commitment to employ domestic workers by these same US multi-national corporations, the US economy will not grow more than stated above as employment drives consumption and consumption is 70% of the US economy.

    Thank you for reading the article. I hope this helps.
    Aug 3, 2011. 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Relationship Between Corporate Profits and U.S. GDP Growth Appears to Have Ended [View article]
    Hi Ariel, thank you for your comment. You are correct, the QE's did have an impact on emerging. But that impact was that it exported inflation, not demand.

    The figures I site in the article are the result of a simple correlation analysis. We can visually see the divergence between corporate profits and GDP after the financial crises where corporate profits continue to rise after GDP growth begins to peak in the 4th quarter of 2009.

    Quantitative easing definitely has had an unnatural effect on world markets. Thanks for reading my article.

    Best
    G C Mays
    Aug 2, 2011. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Outlook Survey Shows Canada Deserves a Closer Look [View article]
    Thank you for your thoughtful reply. Regarding prior Canadian boom/bust cycles, recent GDP data supports your point regarding Canada's economic stability. Between 2007 and 2011, Canada worst GDP performance was -1.8% and its largest growth since then has been 1.4%. That's what I call "steady".

    Of course no nation will ever be immune to the business cycle but in my judgment Canada has recently managed the business cycle better than most.
    Jul 13, 2011. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Outlook Survey Shows Canada Deserves a Closer Look [View article]
    I am aware of this. The symbol was added by the editing department. There is a request in for them to remove it. Thanks.
    Jul 13, 2011. 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Reverse Stock Splits Actually Do Work [View article]
    The vast majority of reverse stock splits do not work. The majority of failures are with stocks trading for less than a dollar by near bankrupt companies trying to not be de-listed. Reverse splits done with stocks trading over $1 but less than $5 have a better track record than the penny stocks but there is still no guarantee of success.

    AIG is an insurance company, there was no need to change the business model, just stop taking risks outside of the realm of reasonable underwriting is all that is needed and the flow of premiums will fix the business over time.

    The $5 question is, "Can Citibank fix its business? If it can the stock price will fix itself.
    Mar 21, 2011. 07:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stories behind USD/JPY: Risks and Opportunities [View article]
    Nice Article. Informative. Thanks for taking the time to write this.
    Mar 9, 2011. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation, Employment and Monetary Policy in China [View article]
    Good Article Mr. Jin. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
    Feb 17, 2011. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Wheat Supply and Demand Estimates Stabilize in January [View article]
    bob adamson, thanks for reading the article. I wrote about the situation in Australia last month. The events in Egypt will also have an impact going forward.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    It seemed as though every thing that could happen came to pass during that time frame. I am very surprised by the relative quiet of late. We will have more US news on Friday. Stay tuned.
    Feb 9, 2011. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
    I guess its all relative and getting by means different things to different people. I have not heard of anyone content with unemployment since way back when I was a kid and someone got laid off from a factory of some sort, they were content to collect unemployment until they were called back, because they knew they would be.

    It should also be noted that one is required to look for work while unemployed in most if not all states. Any week you do not apply for a minimum number of positions you do not receive a check.

    Just estimating here, but if you are speaking if 10 people you know, this is hardly a big enough sample size to statistically broad stroke a population of 13.863 million unemployed people.

    I know educated, highly motivated people with great track records who have literally sent out "hundreds" of resumes and never even received a phone call. Quite frankly knowing where some of them live I do not blame them for "giving up".

    It depends on what your skill set is and where you live, in this new global society we must be prepared to be mobile and move where the work is or learn to "create the money" when needed. However, some are pinned down by homes etc.

    No system is perfect. I don't think the guy or gal who goes to work everyday to stand around the water cooler, gossip and stare at his/her smart phone reading facebook posts while collecting a paycheck is any better than the contented unemployed person. You go to work to work and be productive enough each to cover your wage and then some, not to socialize. That kind of behavior is just another form of entitlement. This sort of person only has a job due to political maneuvering, not ability. They both need to be weeded out of the system in my judgment.

    I've enjoyed the back and forth.
    Feb 5, 2011. 11:38 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
    The size of an unemployment check is not big enough to "get comfortable" on. In many cases they are not enough to keep an independent roof over one's head but enough to keep one from starving.

    The truth of the matter is that many of them will end up homeless and unfortunately, forgotten about.
    Feb 5, 2011. 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
    Moon Kil Woong,
    I wrote an article about what you are speaking of entitled "Just how relevant is American Labor" back in December that shows the decline in the employment-to-population ratio. Once again, we are in agreement.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    The data I used for the article came from the government. The formula for calculating the ratio is well known and readily available. Let me be clear, I have not said once that the Govt. is a benevolent beast. Just that we will find whatever it is that we seek with application of some effort.
    Feb 5, 2011. 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
    Moon Kil Woong, While I agree with and appreciate your sentiments, it is not statistical lying. The unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of number of people unemployed to the total labor force or: "unemployed / total labor force"

    If the a person gives up looking for work then the numerator gets smaller and thus, so does the unemployment rate.

    What I take issue with is media spin. When a media organization (print or television) announces that the unemployment rate dropped to 9% without offering an explanation they are trying to be deceptive in a way that relies on the public not making any more effort than reading or listening to that headline or blurb.

    That's the way the calculation works and it can't be changed, all of the relevant information is fully disclosed, we just have to read it. As citizens we have a civic responsibility to find out what is really the case but unfortunately, most of us would rather be entertained than well informed.
    Feb 4, 2011. 12:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing, Unemployment Stifling Tuesday Morning Shares [View article]
    RJM2, you said I was bloviating which means to talk in an inflated or empty way and you quoted the disclosure quote as an example of my bloviating.

    I'm sorry but I do not understand your issue here. You assume that I don't own the stock, my disclosure says that I don't have a position in the stock, I just do not see how that is bloviating or how you have traded the stock in the past or present is relevant to a research article.

    Thanks again for reading the article.
    Feb 2, 2011. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing, Unemployment Stifling Tuesday Morning Shares [View article]
    RJM2, I assume you meant bloviating and your assumption is incorrect.

    Seeking Alpha will place that at the bottom of any article that it chooses to publish on their web site, whether a stock is mentioned in the article or not. I assume you are familiar with SEC regulations regarding disclosures etc.

    Thank you for taking the time read the article.
    Feb 2, 2011. 07:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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