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  • Potash Closes Disappointing 2012 - What Lies Ahead? [View article]
    Dan, thanks for reading the article. I have written about the price issues in the potash market (dealer, reluctance to take on inventory risk, India & China) for more than a year.

    Rather than rehash those issues I invite you to view my profile and review articles related to both MOS and POT. This should catch you up. Thanks again for reading the article on superbowl Sunday, I appreciate it.
    Feb 3 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp. Full-Year Earnings Preview - Things Don't Always Go As Planned [View article]
    Hi Barry, thanks for reading the article. I also thank you for the comment as it lets me know that I'm doing the job in the way that I've intended.

    As for Potash Corp, I always expect management to put the most positive spin they can on the situation. Until I see dealers make more than a short term commitment, I'll take a wait and see attitude. IMO their stubbornness on potash pricing in 2012 will be costly to them for a while longer.

    You are right, Investors seem to have a short memory as the stock is up more than 5% YTD. However, my models indicate that about 80% of that move is explained by the recent surge in the S&P500.

    Thanks again for reading the article.
    Jan 30 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp Looks To Acquire Israel Chemicals As They Ink Deal With China [View article]
    Hi Barry, thanks for reading the article. I need to make a couple of points here. 1) Potash withdrew an offer in June 2012 to acquire roughly 25% of ICL but withdrew the offer because they felt a decision was taking too long. It remains unclear if the Govt. of Israel will allow them to increase their stake.

    Even if they did approve a deal allowing Potash to acquire 25% of the company the amount of revenue redirected to the income statement would likely be immaterial. What would be significant is that a stake that high would likely give them a seat or two on the board of directors. This would provide the company with a degree of control over the direction of the firm, which in this case would be far more material than any incremental share of profits flowing to the income statement in my opinion.

    Barry, thanks again for reading the article.
    Jan 24 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Size Of The U.S. Labor Force Reached Its Peak? [View article]
    d nova, thanks for commenting on this fairly old article. Actually, the labor force size exceeded 154.9M in May 2012 for the first time, only to fall back after a few months. I mentioned this in a September 2012 article.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Also note the that this is a time of year that many temporary seasonal workers have reentered the labor force for the holiday season. The larger point is that historically the size of the labor force grows parallel to the working age population. That is no longer happening in the US labor market.

    Thanks for your interest in this and for reading the article.
    Nov 3 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Unyielding Corn Prices Zapping U.S. Exports? [View article]
    Mr. Lowery, thanks for reading the article. However, price is the reason US and other companies/countries are importing corn rather than buying domestically. Of course there are always specific exceptions.

    Fairly recent data (Early October) show US corn priced at $318 per ton, with Argentina at $267 and Brazil at $235 per ton.

    Thanks again for reading the article.
    Oct 17 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Growth Stagnates In The 21st Century [View article]
    Mr. Jensen,
    Thank you for reading the article and for you comment. Your comments regarding education are well taken & has been cited many times in the media.

    However, I am not so sure the data bears this out. Through 2009 only 30.1% of Americans had a college degree although more than 80% have at least attended college. The 30.1% number was at the time an all-time high (Census data).

    In 1975 only 11% of Americans had a college degree and that was a high at the time. Two companies, Apple (1975), & Microsoft (1976), followed some years later by Dell (1984) were started around that time by "college dropouts".

    I agree without reservation that education is of the utmost importance and it is always the most cited reason by corporations and media alike. I would also agree that our system is broken due for a variety of reasons. (Adding to your list, facebook, twitter, smart phones etc. also add to the fragmentation we see in American society.) What ever happened to reading books?

    But in my opinion Americans, given the opportunity are always ready to excel, given proper training. Thanks again for reading the article and I appreciate your comment.
    Sep 12 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Growth Stagnates In The 21st Century [View article]
    User 353732, thanks for reading the article. In my opinion slack payroll growth in the US will continue until labor reaches a global equilibrium i.e. rising wage levels in emerging countries meet falling wage levels in advanced economies.

    Even after that occurs I'm not so certain about how much payroll growth the US and other advanced economies will experience but I am fairly certain that whatever growth does occur will not keep up with growth of the working age population.
    Sep 12 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Take Profits From The Summer Rally In Fertilizer Stocks? [View article]
    Hi Ioonman, I think you misunderstand the point.

    Dealers also manage the inventories they purchase from producers (potash companies). In the spring potash "producers" cut production because "dealers" chose to let their inventories fall for fear of both inventory and price risk. With prices at or near cyclical highs this is understandable and frankly, sound business practice for the dealers.

    A major potash producer recently cut production at one of its mines for this very reason (high inventories). Negotiations between dealers and producers continue.

    I have written about this many times over the last 9 months or so and the producers have talked about it as well. Hoep this clears things up.
    Aug 29 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Take Profits From The Summer Rally In Fertilizer Stocks? [View article]
    Hi Prelude, thanks for reading the article. This time of year USDA estimates are based on actual field surveys rather than econometric models.

    1) Can't comment on the specifics of evaporation loss etc. but urea is stored in an environment suitable for it.
    2) Regarding corn, the most successful growers were the ones that received the most moisture during the growing season whether through irrigation or location that received adequate moisture.

    The inventory issue was primarily with phosphate and potash as dealers chose to let their inventories decline. With 96 million corn acres planted we did not see the same inventory issues with nitrogen.

    As the graphic illustrates over a long period producer inventories typically fall this time of year as dealers rebuild their inventories, especially potash in anticipation of winter wheat planting in the US.

    I hope this helps. Thanks again for reading.
    Aug 29 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Take Profits From The Summer Rally In Fertilizer Stocks? [View article]
    Hello randaur, thanks for reading the article. I do not have an opinion on Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile as of today.

    I did mention the company in a written review of Potash Corp strategic investments in July (they own a 32% interest in the firm): http://seekingalpha.co...

    Once an analysis of this firm is complete a report will be published. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Aug 29 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Producer Prices Show Surging Farm, Mixed Fertilizer Prices [View article]
    darrell palm, thanks for reading the article & for the very informative comment.
    Aug 15 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Unyielding Corn Prices Zapping U.S. Exports? [View article]
    Mr. Doty, thanks again for writing. I've been covering the drought as well as ag chemicals for some time. I've written at length about the drought & you are welcome to read those as well and you will see that the significance of the drought is not lost on me.

    Your whole life you are going to have people with views opposite your own. Personally I don't see any reason to be frustrated by another's investment viewpoint. To each his own...investors benefit when they have the opportunity to digest alternative viewpoints.

    My ego is not tied up beat right or wrong. One day of price action will not make either of us right or wrong. Time always reveals the validity of ones thesis.

    Thank's again for reading the article and for your views.
    Aug 9 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Unyielding Corn Prices Zapping U.S. Exports? [View article]
    Mr. Doty, thanks for reading the article and for your contrary opinion, that's what makes a market. Judging from the length of your comment I would guess that you have some sort of long position(s) as that tends to be when readers react strongly to articles that are contrary to their opinion/positions.

    That said, allow me to make a couple of points.

    1) The data presented regarding new export sales for the current marketing year over the period presented is simply a fact and not my opinion.

    2) I am not a bear or a bull on corn. I am presenting an objective analysis & opinion that is my own. It's an issue of supply & demand versus price in my opinion. Some US companies have already started importing 2nd crop corn from S. America and more are considering it. Bear in mind that prices in foriegn currencies & exchange rates also figure in the decision making process of companies that use corn as a product input.

    Here is a link to one example:
    http://goo.gl/KhACa

    3) Before the US $ began to weaken at the beginning of this century corn prices historically ranged between $1.50 & $3.00 per bushel. Thus $8.00+ corn is near all time highs.

    4) South America had a large 2nd crop of corn and some producers are importing from Brazil already.

    5) The price range I presented was $8.00 - to $8.30 per bushel. This morning we find volume fading as corn nears $8.30. Specific price ranges are hard to pinpoint precisely in a market where investors have different levels of information but I am comfortable with my estimate.

    Thanks again for reading the article & for offering your opinion. I appreciate it.
    Aug 9 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Relationship Between Corporate Profits and U.S. GDP Growth Appears to Have Ended [View article]
    Hi alf2011, Thanks for reading the article. While you are first to comment in some time, this article continues to be read by many a full year after its initial publication. I appreciate that. That said, corporate profits are reported as an aggregate absolute total rather than expressed as a percentage of sales.

    That said, net margins don't really apply here, but I think I know what you were driving at. Rephrasing your query I'd guess you were thinking that growth companies, which are generally, "higher margin" , or companies that do not track the business cycle make up a higher share of overall corporate profits than they used to compared to cyclical or "low margin" companies.

    It's unlikely that aggregate or total corporate profits would be affected who earned the profits because lost profits by one corporation are generally gained by either another corporation or added to the savings rate. Thus, the divergence between corporate profits & US GDP is related to US multinationals generating a greater share of their profits outside the US.

    The BEA recently revised both GDP and corporate profits going back to 2009 and I will be releasing updated figures based on the revised data. Stay tuned! Thanks again for reading the article and for your comments.
    Aug 6 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Continues Higher Despite Weak Q4 And Soft Q1 Guidance [View article]
    baseballman24, good luck with your investment whatever its duration and thanks again for reading the article.
    Jul 28 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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