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  • The Relationship Between Corporate Profits and U.S. GDP Growth Appears to Have Ended [View article]
    Hi alf2011, Thanks for reading the article. While you are first to comment in some time, this article continues to be read by many a full year after its initial publication. I appreciate that. That said, corporate profits are reported as an aggregate absolute total rather than expressed as a percentage of sales.

    That said, net margins don't really apply here, but I think I know what you were driving at. Rephrasing your query I'd guess you were thinking that growth companies, which are generally, "higher margin" , or companies that do not track the business cycle make up a higher share of overall corporate profits than they used to compared to cyclical or "low margin" companies.

    It's unlikely that aggregate or total corporate profits would be affected who earned the profits because lost profits by one corporation are generally gained by either another corporation or added to the savings rate. Thus, the divergence between corporate profits & US GDP is related to US multinationals generating a greater share of their profits outside the US.

    The BEA recently revised both GDP and corporate profits going back to 2009 and I will be releasing updated figures based on the revised data. Stay tuned! Thanks again for reading the article and for your comments.
    Aug 6, 2012. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Continues Higher Despite Weak Q4 And Soft Q1 Guidance [View article]
    baseballman24, good luck with your investment whatever its duration and thanks again for reading the article.
    Jul 28, 2012. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Continues Higher Despite Weak Q4 And Soft Q1 Guidance [View article]
    baseballman24, its simply a false dichotomy to think that if one is not long one should be short. As I written many times here on SA, sometimes the best choice is to sit on the river bank and watch the water go by unless one likes making red vs. black bets at the roulette table, which is historically not the best way to manage or protect one's capital.

    Weather is a qualitative factor, something the analyst or investor cannot quantify and the current weather situation really has nothing to do with Mosaic's business, as it has no nitrogen operations. I don't wish to repeat here what I have already written about the drought since about June 19/26 but those views have not changed. This piece adds Mosaics own guidance to the equation.

    Thanks, I always appreciate an alternate POV as this is what creates contrast and ultimately makes a market of buyers, sellers, holders and watchers.
    Jul 28, 2012. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Continues Higher Despite Weak Q4 And Soft Q1 Guidance [View article]
    dhunter3759sa, those are some valid points. Bottom line QE = higher asset prices across the board, regardless of what the macro picture says...short of demand destruction.

    Another round of prolonged QE could create a period of stagflation (high inflation, low growth, high unemployment) like the 70's with difference being the large amount of debt the country is currently in as it is both costly and difficult to stamp out once it starts.

    That said, between September & June both producer and consumer prices moderated a great deal so QE would not send inflation higher right out of the gate. However, despite the media discussion and wall street cat calls for QE I think Bernanke will have to weigh this option very carefully as stagflation would be more devastating than what occurred in the 70's IMO.

    Thanks for your contribution to the discussion.
    Jul 25, 2012. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Continues Higher Despite Weak Q4 And Soft Q1 Guidance [View article]
    dhunter3759sa, thanks for reading the article. Actually, I'm a professional analyst & trader and I cover ag chemicals sector for a living. That said, divergent opinions are what makes a market.

    In the last paragraph I address two specific sets of investors with advice for each. Would I recommend buying at this level short or long term? No. Why? Because what one pays for a stock impacts return regardless of time frame.

    The lows in June were a great time to buy for traders & LT investors and I addressed possible strategies for each based on my opinion that MOS will fall below $50 again over the next few months.
    Jul 24, 2012. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Continues Higher Despite Weak Q4 And Soft Q1 Guidance [View article]
    Hi baseballman24, thanks for reading the article. A response such as yours usually indicates someone who is long the stock. I won't repeat in comments what I have already written in the above article as well as since June 19 and earlier. However, I do not think Mosaic is a short. Time always reveals the truth. Good luck with your investment and thanks again for reading the piece and for your comment.
    Jul 23, 2012. 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pumping Wheat On Weather Makes Little Sense [View article]
    It may in fact be excessive. As you know, bubbles are not uncommon in the equity or commodities markets. Unfortunately, weather can't really be quantified and that uncertainty tends to add volatility.

    We really won't have any more certainty until the first survey period after the corn & soybean pollination periods are over.
    Jul 12, 2012. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pumping Wheat On Weather Makes Little Sense [View article]
    Wheat & corn have a feed relationship. Farmers frequently substitute corn/wheat as animal feed depending on price/supplies. As the prospect for available corn supplies diminish, farmers want to secure wheat for animal feed use, thus driving wheat futures higher. There are other nuances as well, but that's the base reason for higher wheat prices.

    Soybean meal and corn have a similar relationship. Hope this helps.
    Jul 12, 2012. 04:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pumping Wheat On Weather Makes Little Sense [View article]
    Thanks for writing. The smaller spring wheat crop is out there now. With 66 percent of the crop rated good to excellent compared to 73% at the same time last year It remains in good condition.
    Jul 12, 2012. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Corn Production Hammered By Drought, Global Supplies Still Adequate [View article]
    foms, your link worked this time. I post the drought outlook on the Mays Report blog about every two weeks. Didn't post most recent one as I was on a business trip when it was released. Thanks again.
    Jul 12, 2012. 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Corn Production Hammered By Drought, Global Supplies Still Adequate [View article]
    foms, always appreciate your comments. You might want to check that link as it does not link to a website. As always, thanks for reading the piece.
    Jul 12, 2012. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Profits As Percent Of GDP Slumps First Time Since 2008 [View article]
    No, the opposite is true. A higher number indicates that the S&P 500 index is high relative to profits. Therefore, S&P 500 stocks are expensive relative to corporate profits.
    Jul 2, 2012. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Profits As Percent Of GDP Slumps First Time Since 2008 [View article]
    A higher SP500 index to profits ratio would indicate an index that is high relative to corporate profits.
    Jul 2, 2012. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn Crop Conditions Deteriorate, Sending Crop And Fertilizer Stock Prices Higher [View article]
    By the time bloomberg publishes something about the crop market, that information has already been widely disseminated.
    Jun 27, 2012. 06:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn Crop Conditions Deteriorate, Sending Crop And Fertilizer Stock Prices Higher [View article]
    I agree that rain looks unlikely. However, its always important to manage the risk and reward sides of a trade/investment as both always exist, even when probabilities are diminished. Europe will be out there causing higher than normal exchange rate volatility around the globe for the foreseeable future as well. Always appreciate your thoughts and comments.
    Jun 26, 2012. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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