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  • Agrium (AGU): Q1 Adj. EPS of $1.32 beats by $0.31. Revenue of $3.63B (+23% Y/Y) beats by $650M. (PR)  [View news story]
    Diluted Q1 EPS was $0.97 per share. The company missed by $0.02 as consensus estimates were for $0.99 per share.
    May 9 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CF Industries' Strong Q1 Sales: Have Nitrogen Prices Peaked, Or Is There Room To Run? [View article]
    farmed out my savings, good luck with your investment or trade, which ever it is.
    May 7 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CF Industries' Strong Q1 Sales: Have Nitrogen Prices Peaked, Or Is There Room To Run? [View article]
    Hi farmed out my savings, thanks for reading the article. You make valid points. Looking back at nitrogen pricing over the last several years I wanted to point out that pricing is at or near historical highs.

    However, in 2008 the EUR/USD averaged $1.47, which was VERY supportive of crop and by extension fertilizer prices. The EUR/USD is simply not going to average anywhere near that price in 2012.

    That said, as I wrote in the article I think the firm is trading below my estimate of its intrinsic value at the moment. However, its very important for an analyst to also point out potential downside risks to investors, as all companies have them.
    May 7 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Sales The Lone Bright Spot For Compass Minerals In 1st Quarter [View article]
    lavrys, the stock is mostly likely been moving with the overall peer group. The stock dropped with the group on Friday as well. As I've consistently written, the ag chemicals peer group is valuing shares most closely on price-to-sales and not PE.

    The company belongs to the ag chemicals group although the majority of revenues are derived from its salt segment. Many of the competing salt companies are privately held.
    May 6 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Sales The Lone Bright Spot For Compass Minerals In 1st Quarter [View article]
    lavrys, thanks for reading the article and for the follow.
    May 4 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slumping Q1 Potash Sales And Production Drive Earnings Miss For Potash Corp. [View article]
    Hi sunny1111,
    Like people, the stocks of companies in cyclical businesses move in packs, with some outperforming, some performing as expected and others underperforming their respective peer groups.

    That said, without material information specific to any individual company it would be highly speculative to take a position in ANY cyclical stock that is contrary to the current direction of the broader industry and/or market. Thank you for your comment.
    May 1 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slumping Q1 Potash Sales And Production Drive Earnings Miss For Potash Corp. [View article]
    Hi Tiger8896, thanks for reading the article. Farmers are indeed buying potash from dealers this spring, however, dealers are not replenishing their inventories from the fertilizer miners / manufacturers. That's the issue.

    Eventually dealers will have to replenish their inventories. They were burned in the 2009 downturn and understandably want to exercise caution with respect to price and quantity held. Thanks again for writing.
    Apr 30 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slumping Q1 Potash Sales And Production Drive Earnings Miss For Potash Corp. [View article]
    Hi Bodipb, Thanks for reading the article. As illustrated, this article uses relative valuation price multiples to value the shares.
    Apr 30 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slumping Q1 Potash Sales And Production Drive Earnings Miss For Potash Corp. [View article]
    Hi Hellz, Thanks for reading the article. That's a great question. I touched on that right above the illustration when I wrote about P/S having the least amount of variance.

    The price multiple with the least amount of variance or standard deviation is another way of saying that the price multiple with the lowest standard deviation represents the most consistent pricing across the group.

    Through time this can and does change. I have seen the standard deviation of the PE multiple fall into the lowest two multiples for brief periods but never the lowest.

    Even if we were to accept PE as the "defacto" metric Mosaic, CF Industries and Agrium are all priced at lower leading PE multiples so my argument still holds that the stock is expensive relative to its peer group. I hope this helps.
    Apr 28 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slumping Q1 Potash Sales And Production Drive Earnings Miss For Potash Corp. [View article]
    Hi Wutzi, thanks for reading the article. As an analyst my job is to estimate the intrinsic value of a firm and compare that estimate to the market price.

    I have not written that there was not a future in the business, but that relative to the peer group the company is overvalued in my view. For investors, what one pays for a stock has a lot to do with overall returns. I wish you well with your investment. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Apr 28 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slumping Q1 Potash Sales And Production Drive Earnings Miss For Potash Corp. [View article]
    Hi sunny1111, thanks for reading the article. In the January Q4 and full-year analysis I also wrote about the stock being overvalued and that I did not think the market would allow the stock to fall under $30 in a worst case scenario and I still believe that.

    These stocks tend to move together in most cases so unless some really negative and material company specific news became known the stock is not likely to just tumble to a level so low. The overall crop and by association the fertilizer companies are in bull (some might say close to bubble) mode right now so that in itself should limit the downside risk for Potash Corp. and most stocks in the industry. Thanks again for reading the piece.
    Apr 28 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Slumping Q1 Potash Sales And Production Drive Earnings Miss For Potash Corp. [View article]
    Hi skwestorange, thanks for reading the article. Why Potash Corp consistently sells at more than 4 time sales is a mystery to me. Many investors price stocks on PE or price-to-earnings and on that basis it appears relatively inexpensive. Thats the most likely reason aside from what you mention.
    Apr 28 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Lower Export Sales Bull Case Remains For Soybeans And Corn [View article]
    einstein p fleet, thanks for reading the article.

    To your first point, that's the point, that the large reduction exports to those select African nations compared to the prior year is in part responsible for what was a few months ago, all-time high wheat ending stocks. Wheat inventories remain near those highs.

    Not questioning long-term business prospects for fertilizer companies, addressing as I have in previous reports the underlying reasons for the relative under performance of the stocks over the short-term.

    My position, which has been well documented previously, is that the fertilizer business is not a growth but rather a cyclical business, with its pricing ability highly dependent on crop prices.

    Thanks again for reading the article, I hope to see more of your comments in the future.
    Apr 20 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monsanto Q2 Earnings In Full Bloom - What's Wrong With The Stock? [View article]
    Hi Mariematt, thanks for reading the article. I mentioned that in my article and provide a link. That's really something...Thanks again.
    Apr 18 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn And Spring Wheat Planting Ahead Of Schedule, Winter Wheat In Great Condition [View article]
    Thank you for your comment and for reading the article.
    Apr 18 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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