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  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    Actually, Monsanto has been a very consistent performer revenue and earning wise in an industry that is subject to boom/bust cycles at times, especially when compared to the more volatile cyclical earnings of the fertilizer companies.

    In my opinion management does a very good job of setting expectations. Not sure if market conditions will allow them to see they growth they forecast for 2014. They are a lot more transparent than some others in the industry.

    Dupont has one operating segment in the ag chemicals space so no valid comparison exists between the two really. DuPonts industry classification does not put them in the ag chemicals space.Thanks for your comments.
    Oct 13 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    funfun, thanks for reading the article and for your comments.

    Its not unusual for conglomerates like DuPont to play second fiddle or worse in many of it businesses. Each business requires different kinds of expertise and that's hard to successfully integrate under one roof.

    Thanks again.
    Oct 12 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seed Producers Poised To Grow While Fertilizer Producers Struggle? [View article]
    Cambrian Capitalist, thanks for reading the article. I did not offer a valuation opinion on Dupont because their agriculture business represents 20% of overall revenues. The company has 13 businesses organized into 8 operating segments. Thus, Dupont's seed business alone is not enough to offer a valuation opinion or a comparison to Monsanto in my view.

    Dupont seed business does offer a chance to compare/verify pricing power and costs. I hope this helps. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Oct 12 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intrepid Potash Will Weather Storm But Less Risky Choices Exist [View article]
    SBCapital, thanks for reading the article. Yes high volatility is there on the up & downside for IPI, which is one of the reasons I prefer the larger producers (lower downside risk).

    Your point regarding the plant capacity/productivity upgrades are also well taken. However, expanded production capacity / productivity does not have nearly the impact that price & volume do on gross margins.

    After potash prices trough (after crop prices their bottom) and a new cyclical upswing begins those plant upgrades will help margins look better. Thanks again for reading the article.
    Sep 15 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intrepid Potash Will Weather Storm But Less Risky Choices Exist [View article]
    takeone1, thanks for reading the article. First, while IPI is small I don't think we can call them insignificant since they are the largest potash producer in the US.

    Takeovers typically occur during peak and/or bubbles in an industry when optimism is at a peak. The fertilizer space is moving towards its cyclical bottom so there would be no excitement from acquirers or company management in my view.

    Understandably, no company wants to sell itself cheap, which is all that could happen in the current environment. While a deal is technically possible, it would be looked at VERY closely by the DOJ given that the potash industry is already somewhat concentrated.
    Hope this helps. Thanks again.
    Sep 13 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Potash Corp. Is Relatively Overvalued And Will Underperform Peers [View article]
    Cesc, thanks. I have detailed models and financial data of every company and crop market I cover. In the case of the crop market, the data spans a few decades.

    If I have it right you have asked three questions.

    1) What has COGS increased so much in 10 years?

    2) Wouldn't a higher operating capacity partially offset a price drop?

    3) When new capacity added should lower cost mines be shuttered?

    1. For all the reasons you mention. Note that gross margins have risen and dropped with price over the years.

    2. Higher operating rates do lower margins, but only fractionally, not enough to offset huge per ton price drops.

    3. "lower cost" is kind of a broad term. One would not operate a mine of any type if the rate of return is less than what is required by a firm.

    Lastly, I'd like to mention again that your question and the questions of many others focus on company operations while this article is about how the market prices the stock and industry, reasons for the valuation and what this implies for the future. There is a difference.

    As always thanks.
    Aug 8 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Potash Corp. Is Relatively Overvalued And Will Underperform Peers [View article]
    Thanks to all who provided opposing viewpoints since I last check for comments. Also, thanks for reading the article.

    Differing views are what makes a market. I appreciate your points of view. Time always reveals whether a thesis is correct or not. Thanks again for reading.
    Aug 7 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Potash Corp. Is Relatively Overvalued And Will Underperform Peers [View article]
    pmheindl, thanks for reading the article. I cover the ag chemicals industry and crop markets. I am not trying to differentiate the two companies.

    I have illustrated why Potash Corp. lags its peer group, whether or not the industry business is in an upswing or down towards trough and that If an investor wishes to be in this sector because of potash fertilizer, Mosaic would be the better investment as it has/will slightly outperform Potash until potash makes changes.

    Lastly, the article is not about business operations, it is about market valuation and performance. I hope this helps. Thanks again.
    Aug 6 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn And Soybean Prices Have Opposite Effect On Fertilizer, Food Company Stocks [View article]
    RedBaron, Don't think I could call that a comment, so I will thank you for your continued "contributions". Of course its part of my job to follow weather closely.

    The NOAA also released its drought outlook today & the while there is always drought somewhere in the US, drought this year is west of most of the corn belt and conditions are improving according to their map as shown below.

    Here is a link:
    http://goo.gl/iqBmX

    As I conclude in the above report, weather can & often does change on a dime and investors need to be aware of this. Thanks again.
    Mar 21 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn And Soybean Prices Have Opposite Effect On Fertilizer, Food Company Stocks [View article]
    redbaron & Ioonman, thanks to you both for reading the article.

    If it weren't for divergent opinions there would be no markets to invest in. I hope you both continue to read and offer your opinions.
    Mar 20 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Continues Higher Despite Weak Q4 And Soft Q1 Guidance [View article]
    baseballman24, its simply a false dichotomy to think that if one is not long one should be short. As I written many times here on SA, sometimes the best choice is to sit on the river bank and watch the water go by unless one likes making red vs. black bets at the roulette table, which is historically not the best way to manage or protect one's capital.

    Weather is a qualitative factor, something the analyst or investor cannot quantify and the current weather situation really has nothing to do with Mosaic's business, as it has no nitrogen operations. I don't wish to repeat here what I have already written about the drought since about June 19/26 but those views have not changed. This piece adds Mosaics own guidance to the equation.

    Thanks, I always appreciate an alternate POV as this is what creates contrast and ultimately makes a market of buyers, sellers, holders and watchers.
    Jul 28 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Continues Higher Despite Weak Q4 And Soft Q1 Guidance [View article]
    Hi baseballman24, thanks for reading the article. A response such as yours usually indicates someone who is long the stock. I won't repeat in comments what I have already written in the above article as well as since June 19 and earlier. However, I do not think Mosaic is a short. Time always reveals the truth. Good luck with your investment and thanks again for reading the piece and for your comment.
    Jul 23 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Corn Production Hammered By Drought, Global Supplies Still Adequate [View article]
    foms, your link worked this time. I post the drought outlook on the Mays Report blog about every two weeks. Didn't post most recent one as I was on a business trip when it was released. Thanks again.
    Jul 12 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Corn Production Hammered By Drought, Global Supplies Still Adequate [View article]
    foms, always appreciate your comments. You might want to check that link as it does not link to a website. As always, thanks for reading the piece.
    Jul 12 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After Record High Ending Stocks, Global Wheat Production To Decline In 2012/13 [View article]
    Hi maverta, I invite you to read my most recent pieces on each of the tickers that you mentioned.

    MOS
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    CF
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    POT
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I will add that the recent sell-off has made a few issues more attractive on a relative basis, which is my preferred method of valuation. Thanks for reading. I hope this helps.
    May 16 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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