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The Minotaur  

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  • Ubiquiti Networks: Update On 4th Quarter Conference Call [View article]
    I agree that is probably the company's explanation for why they didn't buy back stock but just think about it. They are generating so much cash and have 370m on the balance sheet already. What are the other opportunities for capital deployment they are hoarding their cash for?? They have near infinite ROIC so even if buying back stock would be ROIC dilutive it would still be hugely value enhancing with the stock at a discount to the S&P forward earnings multiple.

    Explanation is management sees competition coming / does not believe the forward estimates, or something else is going on.
    Aug 16, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks: Update On 4th Quarter Conference Call [View article]
    One question:

    Why did UBNT not buy back any shares after announcing the buyback program?? The stock was in the $30s for quite awhile, but diluted share count was up q/q.

    Second question:

    What is proprietary about the UBNT model? They have only 10 patents. Yes, they don't have a salesforce, but that is not exactly an entry barrier because it suggests nobody needs a salesforce to target this market segment!

    And an observation, Streakwave (10% UBNT customer) is already bragging about carrying Mimosa.
    Aug 16, 2014. 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Close The Door On E2open [View article]
    Agreed on all points. what stands out about this company as well is that unlike other SaaS highfliers they miss or guide lower virtually every quarter, even on their promotional non - GAAP metrics. Their new customer wins are also very sparse, typically they win 3 - 6 new customers per quarter which is not exactly earth shattering for such a large sales organization and SI channel. Somehow they have gotten the benefit of the doubt every quarter for the most part. I have been shorting this and covering the dips for about a year though and I have to say that the setup now has me a bit cautious to be short. Presumably, with this new acquisition they have set a bar low enough that they can pull at least one revenue beat / raise out of their hat, unless the core business is really dropping off a cliff (which is possible but hard to definitively say thanks to all the movement around prof services transition). The short has become somewhat crowded and trading is illiquid, so with the recent move to ~$15 there could be a short - term bounce back to the high teens or $20 if management sounds confident on the road.
    Jul 22, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smoke And Mirrors? Recent Controversy In Universal Display [View article]
    @scudjembe: Thank you for your comment. Especially if I am going to critique the journalistic work of others, I should be sure to cross my Ts and dot my Is on something as basic as the author URL. Will be more careful next time!

    @Esekia: While the fixed license is a pre-determined about, management has also said that it will approximately scale along the trajectory of Samsung's own OLED revenues / along the market growth. But yes the materials business provides more upside certainly.

    Thank you both

    Dec 22, 2011. 09:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment