The Minotaur

The Minotaur
Contributor since: 2011
Tromur...Eleksa called the bottom here but don't even think about buying after this rally. It is likely being run by the banks into a secondary offering. They need cash badly. Don't get suckered...full disclosure I am short but hate seeing retail lose $
I scaled back in to my short position the past two days in XONE. I would recommend those who listened to Eleksa to take your profits and move on to a better investment. This one is likely going to zero. Good trading call though Eleksa!
The next catalyst from here is going to be a major guide down to the FY15 revenue figures (barring a miracle) and a capital raise, which is desperately needed given XONE was down to 22m last quarter and is likely down to more like 10 - 15m right now. Paradoxically, the more they ramp revenues in the next 1 - 2 q the more they actually need cash to finance the ramp in AR.
Abrams capital are value investors and have been adding to their BNED stake substantially, so they must see something. Agree that Yuzu expenses are extremely high but if you look at the valuations learning management software companies are commanding (Instructure raising money at 500 - 800m valuation on 70m of 2015 revenues), you could argue there is some value in the platform they have built, even though its unlikely to be realized in the financials for years.
The interesting thing would be if spending on course materials upticks again that can become a comp driver. Comps at BNED have been positive recently after many quarters in negative territory so something to watch. EBITDA is also understated due to the ramp-up of new bookstores each year.
Esekla, you left out that the company has deficient accounting and related party transactions which in my mind is not objective. Retail has gotten burned severely in this stock already by ignoring red flags like those. You've done good work on some other stocks but you are underselling the risks here and if you don't realize that, you are the one who needs to read things more carefully (like the XONE 10-Ks and Qs)
Curious what you think of this company now seem like a reasonable guy, are you concerned about UBNT losing $49 million in cash to email fraud and reporting three material weaknesses in their financials?
I agree it is a positive that Sack and the CFO Smith bought stock, but still...this company is a joke missing guidance every quarter, bookings related party transactions, material weakness in financial reporting, a 0% gross margin in Q1 and only teens GM in Q2...on paper it looks like a $0. This article is not objective and I would strongly caution investors to approach this only as a trade and don't own it into the earnings reports. I was short for the better part of 2 years until August. No longer short but this is not a "safe" long at all.
MSCO hasn't published since the quarter, so the raise may be much sooner than people think.
People are likely to lose their shirts in this stock buying at these prices. At least wait for AMBA to be dual sourced at GPRO and the inevitable pull back when that occurs before buying. Many of AMBA's current end markets are on the cusp of commoditization and revenue from ADAS / auto OEM is many, many years out in the future.
Short design cycle semi companies have a very poor track record of sustaining GM greater than 50% much less 60%, so beware buying up here...not that anybody will listen to me.
I agree that is probably the company's explanation for why they didn't buy back stock but just think about it. They are generating so much cash and have 370m on the balance sheet already. What are the other opportunities for capital deployment they are hoarding their cash for?? They have near infinite ROIC so even if buying back stock would be ROIC dilutive it would still be hugely value enhancing with the stock at a discount to the S&P forward earnings multiple.
Explanation is management sees competition coming / does not believe the forward estimates, or something else is going on.
One question:
Why did UBNT not buy back any shares after announcing the buyback program?? The stock was in the $30s for quite awhile, but diluted share count was up q/q.
Second question:
What is proprietary about the UBNT model? They have only 10 patents. Yes, they don't have a salesforce, but that is not exactly an entry barrier because it suggests nobody needs a salesforce to target this market segment!
And an observation, Streakwave (10% UBNT customer) is already bragging about carrying Mimosa.
Agreed on all points. what stands out about this company as well is that unlike other SaaS highfliers they miss or guide lower virtually every quarter, even on their promotional non - GAAP metrics. Their new customer wins are also very sparse, typically they win 3 - 6 new customers per quarter which is not exactly earth shattering for such a large sales organization and SI channel. Somehow they have gotten the benefit of the doubt every quarter for the most part. I have been shorting this and covering the dips for about a year though and I have to say that the setup now has me a bit cautious to be short. Presumably, with this new acquisition they have set a bar low enough that they can pull at least one revenue beat / raise out of their hat, unless the core business is really dropping off a cliff (which is possible but hard to definitively say thanks to all the movement around prof services transition). The short has become somewhat crowded and trading is illiquid, so with the recent move to ~$15 there could be a short - term bounce back to the high teens or $20 if management sounds confident on the road.
@scudjembe: Thank you for your comment. Especially if I am going to critique the journalistic work of others, I should be sure to cross my Ts and dot my Is on something as basic as the author URL. Will be more careful next time!
@Esekia: While the fixed license is a pre-determined about, management has also said that it will approximately scale along the trajectory of Samsung's own OLED revenues / along the market growth. But yes the materials business provides more upside certainly.
Thank you both