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  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Hi Prateek,

    You are right... I see no reason to change the 2000 target, and while I can argue that Index wise, 1850 is a good approximation coming from where we were, I think we are now clearly in a market f stocks, as opposed to a stock market. I have two types of portfolios, one with a high beta, one with a low beta, but in either case I don't feel confident in sharing these names - one, I am not paid for the advice, two, the corollary is that these may not be tailored to specific risk-return-tax-liquidity profiles of everyone reading my comments. I can share an overall concern with you, however, and this is also the reason why I am not contributing to SA - I am writing a book focusing on this Administration's foreign policy, which may be a game changer in terms of world equilibrium.
    Apr 16 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Stocks Set To Benefit From The Earthquake [View article]
    good idea.
    Apr 2 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    I agree Rock, and it's going to last longer than people are used to because structural unemployment gets higher with demographics.
    Oct 19 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Sorry, I just saw your comment today October 19. I usually answer pretty quickly, don't know what happened here. If you look at my comment above dated September 16, I thought this was quite positive. We basically avoided a takeover of the Fed by the Administration, which would have been an historical disaster. Also, don't forget that Dr. Ben is still on the Board until 2021. So target 2000 is back on.
    Oct 19 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Change, for some reason I did not see your comment until today October 19. I would have answered earlier otherwise, as you know. It's going to be interesting to watch how the Reps are going to revert the fingerpointing. McConell is certainly not helping. My quick take, if I were them: the $26Bn the shutdown has presumably cost comes mainly from money Washington has not been able to spend. That's a good thing and that's why Obama vents instead of smiling. Where it becomes shameful on the Administration part is that part of the money should and could have been spent under special appropriations bill, like for the veterans families. Also, what's this closing of parks which forced some land lessors to close their personal businesses. But that's politics, let's see what side gets traction. Re the market, with Yellen in there and Ben still on the Board for several years, we're good.
    Oct 19 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    One other thing. do not forget that Bernanke's term as Fed Board Member ends in 2021 (I think).
    Sep 16 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    This is Monday September 16, 2013. The market did look weak since I wrote this note but it's time for a quick update. The Summers news shows that the President, badly damaged as he is by the Syria crisis and the looming Debt Ceiling, understands he no longer can lie to everyone on every front. And he knows that if the market tanks, housing tanks and if the economy goes, he goes. I never said he was not a smart politician. So, to make it short, enjoy the Yom Kippur rally. The only thing to worry is that the Russians are winning the Cold War, but that's another subject. The wheels are back on, Target 2000. For the record, pre-open the SnP futures are up 16 to 1698.
    Sep 16 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Noise Of Summers [View article]
    Completely agree Ironman. Obama is desperately trying to gain control over the Fed, while taking the credit for what Dr. Ben did. See http://seekingalpha.co... and http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 29 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Change, you know how I feel about this. For some reason, "they" always find a way to kill the Goose. Usually, it's Wall Street, with a flurry of fluffy IPOs, this time it's Obama. I have started writing a book on the subject which I may not finish, but the research involved yields some fascinating results. Whether this colors my thinking, I don't know. What I do know is that it is difficult for this President to deviate from some very stubborn concepts.
    Jul 26 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Barbara, let me put it this way. From 1995 to today, the market went up 300%, down 50%, up 100%, down 50% and up 155%... So anything could happen. The main differences today are, on the one hand, a much lower Debt-to-Household Net Worth, around 19% - but this could possibly deteriorate fast as Stocks represent some half of Net Worth, at $32 trillion; and on the other, a much higher government Debt. My concern with Summers, or any other pilot than Bernanke for that matter, is that the risk premium for stocks is likely to increase, which mean a P/E decompression. If we hit the 14 level, which seems to be an historical pivot point (see previous articles), this would mean a 12.5% correction. This would equate to 1485. This is a pretty recurrent area of support: it is the 25% retracement from the March 2009 lows (1444), the 38.2% retracement of the October 2011 lows (1460), and the 61.8% retracement of the November 2012 lows (1478). I am not saying we are going there, but this illustrates your point.
    Jul 26 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Robin thanks. There was a bit of short term support around 1680 yesterday, with the bounce in the pm. However, I had around 1692 has a longer trend resistance, which we hit upon, and this morning things look pretty weak. With the break through the channel support, I am looking to Fibonacci as a guide: next level 1664 and 1945. We could easily go down further, given the egos involved - both Obama and Summers are probably also watching, and if things do get worse, Obama may think twice about falling down with him. Remember, he can make an announcement anytime - as I told Rock above, he reappointed Bernanke in August 2009, and there was a reason for that: to calm the markets.
    Jul 26 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Rock, good question actually. There are seven Board members whose term is 14 years and expires on January 31, with staggered terms. The Chairman and Vice Chairman have four year terms. However, while in some instances the reappointment news comes close to that date, more often than not it can occur at any other time. Bernanke was first nominated on October 25, 2005, and confirmed on January 31, 2006, then renominated on August 25, 2009 for 2010. Greenspan was nominated on August 11, 1987 effective that day. Volcker took office in August 79.

    The god news is that Bernanke's term as a Board member expires in January 2020...
    Jul 25 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    All good ideas, thank you.
    Jul 25 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Scarkmott I agree on Summers, obviously but this is Obama's game plan: take the credit for Bernake's work, then take control of the Fed. He'll do it if the markets don't scare the wits out of him. If they do and Housing stalls, he is done. Let's see what happens.

    On Geithner, I have another problem. He was President of the New York Fed when the s...t hit the fan in 2008, and he was Treasury Chief until recently. Last I checked, the IRS is a bureau of the Treasury...

    I have written a letter to Bernanke, Boehner, Rubio and Scott (I live in Florida) basically saying that if Bernanke leaves, not only it creates a vacuum in which QE will have a life of its own, but more importantly it creates a political problem as Obama will take the Fed over. No reaction so far. Only a vocal support of Bernanke could work, eventually. Then, one of two things happen. Either Obama listens, or he does not. If he does not and the s...t hits the fan again, the Republicans have a chance in 2014. It would be a dangerous back game, but better than the guillotine. Write your Congressman and Senator.
    Jul 25 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Thanks for the suggestion bd4uandu. Inflation has been off my radar for long, so I don't have a full list of picks. I am going to look into this one. Same for HL actually, except there has been a bit of insider buying lately, I have liked the chart for a while, production cash cost of $7 an ounce ex by-products leaves room for a good cash-flow, which the company is using to consolidate smaller miners. My portfolios are concentrated, around 25 stocks no more, so I picked one. I am open to another one.
    Jul 24 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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