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  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Thanks for the suggestion bd4uandu. Inflation has been off my radar for long, so I don't have a full list of picks. I am going to look into this one. Same for HL actually, except there has been a bit of insider buying lately, I have liked the chart for a while, production cash cost of $7 an ounce ex by-products leaves room for a good cash-flow, which the company is using to consolidate smaller miners. My portfolios are concentrated, around 25 stocks no more, so I picked one. I am open to another one.
    Jul 24, 2013. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    SilverD, I actually wrote it today but yes, this was after a conversation yesterday about my outlook. I have had the chart ready since this week-end, but I wanted to see some more results. Strangely, I had another chart showing a pivot point at 1692, but I don't know where I put it. When we broke it, I put the pen to paper.

    Funny, my conclusion is the same as yours, stock specific, but you are net short, I am net long, in particular Housing. This is the one sector Obamers will support. My favorite spec is TST. I don't like Cramer (at all) but he is beefing up the story in time for his retirement when the next bear cometh...
    Jul 24, 2013. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Bradlesl, good point. I'll keep this in mind if indeed it unfolds. In the meantime, HYG has shown excellent correlation with the S&P.
    Jul 24, 2013. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 - Target 2000: The Wheels Are About To Come Off [View article]
    Freya, I actually did same, and I agree with Silver as not just a passive hedge. I am also waiting to see how NILE results shape up on 7/31. I took profits there but I kind of like the Diamond story.
    Jul 24, 2013. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000 - No Need For A Nice Round Bottom - Part V [View article]
    OK. This is July 11 at 11:40 EST. We are done with 1660, and we are testing 1666.... who says 1691?
    Jul 11, 2013. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • President Obama: Don't Kill The Golden Goose [View article]
    Hopefully Congress and the Administration got the message: you're the ones screwing the economy with your Fiscal Policy. My Monetary Policy works, thank you - Housing jobs and related, Auto jobs, and Household Net Worth, in particular deleveraging. Sounds familiar... Good for Dr. Ben. Now that the market is saluting his work, it's going to be pretty tough for anyone to steal the credit, and to steer the boat astray. Enjoy, and tough luck Pisani.
    Jul 11, 2013. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TRI Pointe Homes: The Gold Rush In California Real Estate Continues [View article]
    Fair enough. I am watching both, good ideas. I own TOL on the high end, PHM in the low to middle - I think after its merger with Centex, its eaarnings power is untested, and JOE for land/Berkowitz. I also own FNMAT, AGM (extremely thin), WCC and WSBC.
    Jul 8, 2013. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000 - No Need For A Nice Round Bottom - Part V [View article]
    SilverD, looks like you're going to be right...We'd better hold between 1588 and 1593.
    Jul 3, 2013. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • President Obama: Don't Kill The Golden Goose [View article]
    Somebody opposed my line of reasoning by stating I was forgetting the increase in Public Debt which QE was enabling, shame on Dr. Ben (The Tea Party and Paul Ryan's line). This is true, but here is how I look at it. One, since 2008, Public Debt has increased by $8 Trillion, and Household Net Worth by $20 Trillion, trough to now. Two, what the Fed has actually bought in the period is $2.4 Trillion, which includes $1.7 Trillion that banks hold as Excess Reserves, i.e. money they don't need to lend. While this Excess is probably destined to clean any skeletons that remain in closets, particularly in Europe, I believe there will still be a large amount that will be returned to the Fed with the end of QE. The point is, QE pundits have no case, in my opinion, except at the margin. The fact remains that the Administration's Spending is the cause for the Debt increase, not Dr. Ben. He is simply making sure the banking system works. If you know of a better solution, rewind to 2008 and tell me what it was.
    Jul 3, 2013. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TRI Pointe Homes: The Gold Rush In California Real Estate Continues [View article]
    John,

    TPH does look interesting. BRP may have a bit of a short term issue with $185Mn in STD and only $30Mn in cash, but it's a big company which should have no problem refinancing.

    On TPH, I need to understand why they fell why the builders were rallying in April-May. This suggests to me that they were priced to high, yet I don't see anything wrong in their comps. Maybe the question is why they issued so much stock as opposed to leverage their balance sheet a bit more. Certainly, the ROE looks much greater going forward than the cost of debt. Also, any thoughts as to Starwood's 38% stake, and why did TIAA sell (a bit, for sure, but still).
    Jul 2, 2013. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Loses Its Cool [View article]
    Jason, please look at the Household Net Worth table in http://seekingalpha.co... as well at the speech which Dr. Ben delivered to the National Economists Club on November 21, 2002.

    One, Fiat money creation is called the Monetary Base, and in a fractional reserve banking system, it should expand into larger Money aggregates - in the case since 2008, M1 Multiplier has dropped from 1.5 to 0.80, so big problem here, but that's another story.

    Two, it is very difficult to say how money translates into prices, but there is clearly a relationship. If you take stocks for example, the incremental dollar which buy stocks usually translates in more than a dollar increase in price. Wealth, as you look at it, is the product times the price, whether it be housing or anything else.

    Hope this helps.
    Jul 2, 2013. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Quickly Headed South - QE4 To Follow [View article]
    OMG, Gold must be going through the roof! Let's buy Dave's fund before "people" pick up on this!!!
    Jul 1, 2013. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Quickly Headed South - QE4 To Follow [View article]
    OMG, Gold must be going through the roof...!
    Jul 1, 2013. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Quickly Headed South - QE4 To Follow [View article]
    I didn't realize you also had a Master in Philosophy. Impressive. Have you read Mark Twain?
    Jul 1, 2013. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Quickly Headed South - QE4 To Follow [View article]
    Dave, you do sound a little pompous for somebody who surely must be making a ton of money managing your fund, yet who looks to save $300 per month on rent. BTW, care to share your performance record?
    Jul 1, 2013. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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