S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]
Mobyss, interesting scenario. I need to think about the correlations, but here are my first thoughts. By my book, SnP 1600 occurs because of liquidity - money goes to financial assets faster than in the economy. The test here is the M1 Multiplier. So SnP 1600 does not mean inflation, or a substantial pick up in the economy - all it takes is some 2% growth in GDP. In this case, I don't see the corrolary with $150 oil.
Re QE, if my analysis of Household Net Worth holds, there is no need. Increasingly, it looks to me we look at the trees.
S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]
TruffleIPig, I like your bio! The timing on 1600 is debatable. Clearly, the Election should have a bearing, but I am not so sure. Housing is what moves the needlle. Re Fiat, I actually own Chrysler. To me, it's a great brand, innovative in design and tech, and totally undervalued because of the Fiat stigma.
Thanks for pitching in - I hate writing these things on a late Friday afternoon. It usually ruins my week-end golf game...
Friday Fakery: $188Bn Buys You A One-Day Rally [View article]
All this will reverse when Real Estate picks up - and it is, right? Have you looked at Household Net Worth recently? And would you care to venture where the number will soon be, with stocks marching on and real estate picking up? I dubbed this the Instable Equilibrium, check it out http://seekingalpha.co...
For more on HNW and Housing, this is what I wrote on June 9th, 2011 - pretty controversial but I am happy... http://seekingalpha.co...
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
China's slow-down is good. With inflation back to 1.8%, they will soon pick up again, and just in case you did not notice, there was no impact on Earnings from that. The hit from Europe was also well absorbed. Financial Assets Behavior 101: it's the liquidity that counts. SnP 1600 is actually conservative, and I will update depending on the Elections. At this point, 16 times $100 EPS is at the bottom of the historical 14 to 25 range of the post-war period, except for the 70's, and the recent period of risk premium. It's even totally out of the hoistorical norm when you compare the inverse of the P/E, i.e. the Earnings Yield, to the 10-Year.
6 Reasons Why Monster Stock Rally 2012 Is Right Around The Corner [View article]
Good article. We do not need more Fed printing. More ECB yes. But at the end of the day, we already have a couple of Trillion in Excess reserves in the US, and same in Europe. With a lowering of risk premiums, the portion of these reserves which up until now were kept as an extra safety net will be released - first in financial markets, second in the real economy - the test on that will be the Multiplier, still in the 2009 doldrums. When this happens, not only will we have a P/E Decompression Stampede, but also an E expansion. Rates will go up, making Stocks and Real Estate the asset of choice - the next thing you'll notice is a dramatic improvement in Household Net Worth. QED. http://seekingalpha.co... http://seekingalpha.co...
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
I would not be surprised to see a short squeeze on IO, which I own. Also, for those who are interested, it looks like AKAM ($35.85) is about to tumble - surprising after the strong move on Q@ earnings, but that's what my Oscilator reads.
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
Yes, I did have a great week-end! Actually, I did not want to overkill on the Model - if I run it everyday, the results will fall under the law of great numbers...- but I did sell a bit yesterday and bought some TWM at teh close, as the momentum seemed to be fading especially in the financials and, curiously in MCD and PFE. It feels like rates are about to inch up here. Now, I would like this to happen, confirming a pick up in the economy, as I am a strong believer in stocks going up when rates start to pick up. But given what I would hope to happen in November, I can't have it both ways. Hopefully the economy stays pat until then. What made my day yesterday was EXH!
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
pmiller, thanks for the comment. Crappy macro is actually a good thing, as liquidity is what feeds financial assets. Now crappy is ok as long is crappy up. Crappy down, no good. what you want to watch for is Housing. I have called the turn, about a year ago http://seekingalpha.co... This is the only needle-moving sector re employment. Of course, then the other variable are the elections. All in all, I am not calling for 1600 in 2012 - yet - but it could easily happen. That's what a Stampede would mean. However, I'll easily bet 1600 before 1290. Technically, if you refer to a very well written comment from aarc on my previous article, 1422 would be a compelling short covering trigger.
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
My sincere thanks to my new "followers" - and of course my older ones. I will tell you this much: we are not consensus, and I hope we will continue not to.
I don't write much, this is not a compulsive disorder. I have many other ways to enjoy life, by many orders of magnitudes. This week-end, for example, I went to fetch my two eldest sons from camp, in the Catskills of New York (French Woods Festival of The Arts - love it!). No internet, except in the Circle E Dinner in Hancock.
I left on Friday morning, before the open. I had covered my shorts on Thursday at the close. I left, worried.
This is Monday 8/7 evening. My stocks are up and I feel pretty cool. I wish I could share with you the performance of the Wizard of Oz, Anything Goes, and A View From The Bridge that I saw at camp. Not to mention the Improv show.
I know, you may be thinking TOS is in Lalaland. Think twice - it's a combination of all of the above, and then some.
S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]
Re QE, if my analysis of Household Net Worth holds, there is no need. Increasingly, it looks to me we look at the trees.
S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]
Thanks for pitching in - I hate writing these things on a late Friday afternoon. It usually ruins my week-end golf game...
S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]
Friday Fakery: $188Bn Buys You A One-Day Rally [View article]
For more on HNW and Housing, this is what I wrote on June 9th, 2011 - pretty controversial but I am happy...
http://seekingalpha.co...
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
6 Reasons Why Monster Stock Rally 2012 Is Right Around The Corner [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
http://seekingalpha.co...
6 Reasons Why Monster Stock Rally 2012 Is Right Around The Corner [View article]
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
S&P Target 1600: The P/E Decompression Stampede - Part VI [View article]
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
Thanks for the comment.
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
This is the only needle-moving sector re employment. Of course, then the other variable are the elections. All in all, I am not calling for 1600 in 2012 - yet - but it could easily happen. That's what a Stampede would mean. However, I'll easily bet 1600 before 1290. Technically, if you refer to a very well written comment from aarc on my previous article, 1422 would be a compelling short covering trigger.
Start Paying Attention To The Dow Jones Model [View article]
I don't write much, this is not a compulsive disorder. I have many other ways to enjoy life, by many orders of magnitudes. This week-end, for example, I went to fetch my two eldest sons from camp, in the Catskills of New York (French Woods Festival of The Arts - love it!). No internet, except in the Circle E Dinner in Hancock.
I left on Friday morning, before the open. I had covered my shorts on Thursday at the close. I left, worried.
This is Monday 8/7 evening. My stocks are up and I feel pretty cool. I wish I could share with you the performance of the Wizard of Oz, Anything Goes, and A View From The Bridge that I saw at camp. Not to mention the Improv show.
I know, you may be thinking TOS is in Lalaland. Think twice - it's a combination of all of the above, and then some.