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S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice ... Part II [View article]
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
I happen to believe that there are many tools in the tool box, which can be Keynesians or Monetarists. I also believe that expectations play a great role in economic agents behavior, which is now called Behavioral Finance. And then I believe action speaks louder than words. So, targeting, I have no clue - to me it's a moving "target" which depends on many variables, external as well as internal (demographics is a big one). By my book, and this too is quite controversial, I think Bernanke is the best chairman we've ever had. Not only does he effectively deals with what he knows, but as you point out, he uses his judgment to address what he does not know. Part of the unknown stems from the derivatives market, to include the infamous Credit Default Swaps. First issued by JPMorgan in 1997, they were exempted from regulation under the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 - signed by President Clinton on December 21, and sponsored by Phil Gramm, whose wife Wendy, previous Chair of the CFTC was on the Enron Board at the time... Even Greenspan had this to say about these in 2005: "The new instruments of risk dispersal have enabled the longest and most sophisticated banks, in their credit granting role, to divest themselves of much credit risk by passing it to institutions with far less leverage. Insurance companies, especially those in reinsurance, pension funds, and hedge funds, continue to be willing, at a price, to supply credit protection" - I did not make it up to answer your question, see page 110 of my book.
So, be assured of the fact that I am not oblivious to risk and tales. However, my job is to make money. The only way I know how to is when there is risk - I do not believe in Efficient market Theory. To be clear, I am quite uneasy, short term, for a number of reasons - either observable or not. Longer term, however, I firmly believe we are back in the historical 14 to 26 P/E range, and that equities will outperform bonds by a mile.
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
S&P 500 Target 2000: Going Once, Going Twice... [View article]
S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]
S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]
S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]
It's 3:55 Thursday 8/2 - I Am Covering Shorts @ SnP 1365 And DJII 12880 [View instapost]
S&P Target 1600: Buy 'Em When They're Sleepin' And Don't Wake Me Up Until We Get There [View article]