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  • Should You Have Sold In May? [View article]
    Cam,

    Excellent article. However, I think today Monday is crucial. On Friday, we decisively broke the trendline from the initial reversal of 2/23 on SnP, COMP, RUT and HYG. This morning, HYG gapped down. I obviously don't know why, but if we follow through today, we are looking at 1600 and 1555 as Fibo supports.
    Jun 3 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Air Pocket Ahead - Part IV - II [View article]
    SilverD, I forgot one thing. This is not a 180 - if I did, you'd know it. Go back to Part I, and make the difference between a 180 and an intermediate correction. Unless you think that Markets are a straight line, up or down. Jury out on Monday.
    Jun 2 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Air Pocket Ahead - Part IV - II [View article]
    Thank you SilverD. You are correct, I am not a permabull. Howewer, the time horizon needs to be defined. and there are such things as breaks to the upside, as well as breaks to the downside. One day does not make a trend, been there done that. Let's see how this one unfolds. Emerging markets, as of this Sunday evening, don't seem to think the QE comet hit Earth.
    Jun 2 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Air Pocket Ahead - Part IV - II [View article]
    Rseye, I must admit I do not know. I am not a precious metals guy but let me think about it. On Metals, there is the behavioral thinking side, i.e. Inflation risks increase, Metals go up, and vice versa, but there also is the supply-demand part, on which I have no handle.
    Jun 2 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Air Pocket Ahead - Part IV - II [View article]
    Well said Change, can't elaborate, taking one of my sons to a LAX tournament. talk to you on Sunday evening. Let's see what Tokyo and Europe do...
    Jun 1 07:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - II (Continued) [View article]
    RSAAKS, the Fed will stop QE, no doubt about it. But remember, this QE money is mainly held at the FED as Excess Reserves who fear another credit leg down. We had a whiff of this over the past wee, with the HYG plunging today. I am thinking about an article here to sum things up, short term. That's the tough part. Long term, I have made my case, and it's all about a regression to the mean of the spread between the Earnings Yield and the 10-Year.
    May 31 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 PEG Ratio Is Sky High [View article]
    The PEG ratio was one of the metrics used by Peter Lynch who ran the Magellan Fund which held some 1,400 stocks, mostly NASD. I have never been convinced by the claim "know what you buy", since the performance of such a fund is really a directional bet on asset classes.

    Last I heard about the PEG was in the Internet Bubble, when stocks had a P/E of 100 for "growth" of 100%. We all know what happened. By the same token, I suppose a stock that sells at 11 times, like TOL, should grow at 11%, and a stock that sells at 28, like PHM, should grow at 28%, Or does this mean that PHM is a short relative to TOL? I am surprised the author would fall into this trap. The real metric, if I had to single one, is the Earnings Yield, or, if you want to use the historical P/E ranges, check my articles.
    May 30 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - II (Continued) [View article]
    SPXplus10, actually no, it's more of the same.
    May 28 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - II (Continued) [View article]
    CB, another thought here. The Fed did print $2.2 Trillion since 2009, but the deficit increased by another $4 Trillion. That's the part that will be difficult to undo. Remember, Deficits are nothing else than deferred taxes.
    May 28 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - II (Continued) [View article]
    Change, you win :)
    May 28 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - I [View article]
    Thank you anonysubscribe. Don't hesitate to ask questions, on the thread or through the mailbox, because I usually don't write much. You will most likely hear from me in controversial times, I owe that much to my readers. To me, it's a bit of a cathartic exercise. It's also a good way to go on record. From that standpoint, in retrospect and if one forgets how painful the 2008-2013 period was on a daily basis, I am afraid to say it will probably look easier than the next one. But I do believe we are still on the same script, and that it is broadening. So, whenever you hear me say "I covered my positions", "I reduced my exposure", take it as simple disclosure. I can't say everything I do, but I try to be transparent. These hedging moves are purely short term, and more often than not lose money. But it's the sleep factor. Thanks again for following me.
    May 26 07:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - I [View article]
    Joe, if you have a vested interest in promoting AlphaKing, I think it would be appropriate to disclose it. You're free to comment on my articles, but I am not sure our readers care too much about it. Re the performance, I was looking at the tab that says Alphaking.com on the top left which shows quite a different picture than the link you sent, which I also looked at. And for some reason, I could no longer find the blurb that said something to the effect that the numbers had been audited starting in 2012, and that prior years were test-trades. But then again, none of my business, really.
    May 25 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - I [View article]
    Sorry Joe, yes I meant Kevin.
    May 25 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - I [View article]
    Thanks again Change, you're not bad at that either.
    May 25 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Target 2000: Why Stocks Won't Look Back - Part V - I [View article]
    SilverD, I appreciate you chipping in. Universa's advisor is Nassim Taleb, and he has been right twice in the past 15 years. He almost got 2011 right, when I was calling 1190 a major bottom pivot point. Let me be clear, and I have said this before, I do not like exponential or parabolic moves. However, re QE, I wrote this article http://seekingalpha.co... in July 2012, called "The Unstable Equilibrium". Two things. One QE is now worldwide, and thus won't induce zone specific differentials in inflation or exchange rates. This takes care of the German fear of a Weimar-like scenario. Two, there is a defined exit strategy for QE, which is being telegraphed by the Fed. Remember, the Fed's B/S was $800Bn before this started, it is now $3.1Trillion. So QE, by and large, represents $2.3Trillion - see http://bit.ly/h22dOu . And where are these: $1.8Trillion sits at the Fed as Excess Reserves, meaning the Banks' Piggy Bank just in case. When the economy really picks up, they will adjust their risk model and start lending that money. This is when the Fed will preempt inflation by exiting QE. Not an easy exercise, but they have done a great job so far contrary to popular belief.
    May 25 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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