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The Oxen Group is a financial analysis and investment opportunities newsletter-based website run by financial analyst David Ristau and features several other traders. Ristau and team have been working in stocks for several years and has developed a knack for identifying winning short-term and... More
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  • Oxen Nightly - Dow Hits 12,000, Netflix Kills It, and Oxen Group Goes 4/5
     Oxen Group Nightly - Jan. 26, 2011 (www.theoxengroup.com)

    The markets made it slightly higher on Wednesday after spending most of the day even higher in the green, but the real story came in after hours with a great round of earnings headed up by Netflix (NFLX) and Qualcomm (QCOM). Intraday, the market hit 12,000 before faltering off that level. The market moved up after bullish news from President Obama that he wants to have lower tax rates for businesses at the same time curbing government spending (good luck!). Further, the Fed commented that they were not making any changes to their $600B bond-buying plan or changing borrowing rates.


    The Dow finished up 8. The Nasdaq finished up 20. The S&P 500 finished up 5.5. Gold finished up nearly a point.
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    The Oxen Group performed exceptionally on the day. We were able to close a number of positions in the green and get solid earnings exposure in AH. We closed 3/4 of our position in Ryland Homes (RYL) before the close for a 3.5% gain. While earnings came out lackluster, the stock did not lose value in AH. We also closed our two-day Overnight Trade in Royal-Caribbean (RCL) before earnings as the stock gained over 3.5% from our entry yesterday. We also closed 3/4 of E*Trade (ETFC) for a 0.70% gain intraday, but earnings were weak in AH. The stock looks like it will open lower tomorrow, and we will close neutral. We also bought Netflix (NFLX) to start the day, but the stock trailed off the morning highs. We closed 3/4 of the position for a 1.5% loss. Yet, our entry at 185.20 is looking very solid after a great earnings report that has taken the stock over 200 in AH. We will close the stock tomorrow in the green. Our only major loss for the day was a 1.5% loss in our Short Sale Overnight Trade in MOLX that did not work out well after the stock was upgraded this morning.

    On the Longtem Portfolio, we did not have any new positions today. Our solar group lost some value after a major run-up, but we have cashed in on gains for these stocks already. We did do an update on Trina Solar (TSL) and reiterated the stock as a Buy. We did, however, increase the price target to $39.
     

    Moving into tomorrow, we are holding RUTH, a 1/4 position in ETFC, NFLX, and RYL. After the open, we will be down to our doubled position in RUTH only. Tomorrow, we will be able to reload on some new Midterm Trades that look good moving into next week's earnings and other positions. 

    Economic news was great today with new home sales leading the way. Sales came out at 329K versus the consensus expectations of 300K. This news helped our RYL position. Tomorrow, jobless claims and durable orders are on the docket, but earnings will rule.

    In company news, earnings continue to rule the market. This evening, Netflix (NFLX) made quite a move with an EPS of 0.87 vs. 0.71 and a great subscriber base that beat expectations with over 2M new subscribers in Q4. Additionally, Qualcomm (QCOM) had excellent earnings with an EPS beat at 0.82 vs. 0.72. Tomorrow morning, AT&T (T), Caterpillar (CAT), Nokia (NOK), and Procter & Gamble (PG) our important earnings.

    Articles for today:


    Guest Articles:


    Cartoon of the Day:



    Quote of the Day:

    "Based on my own personal experience -- both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past -- rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise." 

    -- Marty Whitman



     
    Visit us at www.theoxengroup.com. Email us at contact@theoxengroup.com or call us at 1.800.790.1160.

    Good Investing!

    Tags: RYL, RCL, ETFC, NFLX, MOLX, RUTH
    Jan 26 11:39 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Oxen Nightly - Dow Nears 12,000, Oxen Group Continues Winning Ways

    The markets continued to shoot higher to start off this week after good news was released from a number of companies, and the Dow finished within 200 points of 12,000, which is the highest it has been since June 2008. Intel gave technicals a big catalyst when the company announced that they will raise their dividend. Further, the National Association for Business Economics commented that they are most optimistic about the economy and jobs coming back since December of 2007. Overall, though, the market showed great strength rebounding on bargains that have hit the market after a red finish to last week.


    The Dow finished up 108. The Nasdaq finished down 21. The S&P 500 finished down 1.66. Gold finished neutral.

    The Oxen Group finished the day well with a solid day trade in Ethan Allen Interiors (ETH) that worked for 2.1% intraday. The stock made a nice move off of our early morning entry with earnings looming. Some investors who held the stock into earnings were given a great report, and the stock rose over 9% in after hours. We, additionally, entered into four new positions today. We took a double position in Ruth's Hospitality (RUTH) as the stock looked poised to make a nice bounce after a two-week drop. We took another position in DryShips (DRYS) as the stock has dropped to levels it was at in November, and it looks poised for a bounce. We also entered two new plays of the week in E*Trade (ETFC) and Ryland Homes (RYL). Both stocks looked poised for big gains before earnings as we entered them today.

    On the Longtem Portfolio, we were able to exit a 1/3 position in one of our holdings in Trina Solar (TSL). The Longterm Ratings Portfolio has now improved to 2% realized gains with our four exits thus far in the $46,000 Portfolio. We have 10/12 positions in the green. We, additionally, updated our Skechers story with a reiteration at Hold and dropped our price target from 28 to 24.


    Moving into tomorrow, we are holding RUTH, DRYS, ETFC, and RYL. We will be hoping for some good news out of Consumer Confidence and the Housing Market Index as well as strong earnings to help keep this rally going. The buy up today on limited news was a great sign for the market.

    Economic news was limited today to the Economics Board news, but tomorrow starts off a big week of economic news. Tomorrow, we see Consumer Confidence coming out and the NAHB Home Price Index. Both can have a nice impact on the markets. Yet, company news will be big.

    In company news, earnings continue to rule the market. This evening, American Express announced their anticipated miss of 0.94 EPS vs. 0.97. Amgen beat estimates and saw revenue rise just 1% YOY. The pharma company was flat in AH. Zions (ZION) disappointed with their earnings, continuing a poor theme for the financials. These should be overshadowed, however, by tomorrow morning's big earnings from 3M, AK Steel, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson.

    Articles for today:


    Guest Articles:


    Cartoon of the Day:



    Quote of the Day:

    "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

    – Warren Buffett

    Visit us at www.theoxengroup.com. Email us at contact@theoxengroup.com or call us at 1.800.790.1160.

    Good Investing!
    Tags: INTC, ETH, ETFC, RYL, DRYS, RUTH
    Jan 25 12:38 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Afternoon Snack: Portugal Brings Market Down, Bulls Bring It Up, Oxen Group Reloads
    The market spent the day rebounding after an early drop on news that Portugal may be on the brink of its own European Union bailout. After a weak start to the day, things continued upwards led by tech as news from the CES conference started to price into the market, and investors started to buy up some companies that had become more undervalued in the recent weakness in the market. Additionally, the start of earnings season may have helped push the markets up throughout the day from lows as Alcoa kicks off Q4 earnings today.

    The Dow finished up (). The Nasdaq finished up (). The S&P 500 finished up (). Gold finished (). Silver finished ().

    On the economics front, news was limited, but this week is a big week for data. Coming out this week, we have wholesale inventories, export/import information, the Treasury Budget, the Fed's Beige Book, job claims, Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, Trade Balance, retail sales, industrial production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and business inventories. Yikes! That is a lot, and it is coupled with the start of a week full of earnings. Alcoa, JPMorgan, and Intel should be a nice barometer of what is to come in the industrial, financial, and tech side of things.

    Company news was limited, but the anticipation of earnings is on the minds of everyone. Corporate deals started the week as DuPont bought a Danish food maker for $5.8B. Duke Energy Corp. bought out Progress Energy Inc. for $13B. More corporate dealings should be positive for the market as it is a sign that companies see demand and health returning to the economy. The big news is that Alcoa will report earnings tonight that are scheduled to be at 0.18 EPS. This is double over what the company did in Q3.

    The Oxen Group performed well on the day. We were able to exit two positions in the green. We exited Gammon Gold (GRS) for a 1.4% gain at 7.88 after the company reported early guidance on Q4 at strong levels. We also exited a position in Advanced Semi (ASX) for a minute gain at 0.55% to help open up some cash to get involved with SuperValu (SVU).

    Moving into tomorrow, we are holding positions in Bank of Ireland (IRE), Citigroup C, Intel (INTC), GFI Group (GFIG), and SuperValu (SVU). IRE and C need a positive day to make a rise as financials have beaten down over the past several trading sessions. INTC, GFIG, and SVU were new entries today. We are looking for INTC to move throughout the week as our Play of the Week. GFIG hit a bottom of a trading range today at 4.60, and we are looking for GFIG to move a solid 3-5% off this bottom. SVU is an Overnight Trade that looks solid for a nice gain after being undervalued into earnings.

    On our Longterm Ratings Portfolio, we are looking very good at this point as the portfolio has increased in value by 5% since its inception at the end of December. Dean Foods (DF) is nearing a target exit at 10.07, and we are looking to sell one third of our position in the stock at that point.

    Market buying once again on a dip today. Anticipation of earnings is high, and they will have a big impact on our direction moving forward.

    That's it for today.

     
    Good Investing!


    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Tags: SVU, GRS, ASX, C, INTC, IRE
    Jan 10 3:59 PM | Link | Comment!
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