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The Oxen Group is a financial analysis and investment opportunities newsletter-based website run by financial analyst David Ristau and features several other traders. Ristau and team have been working in stocks for several years and has developed a knack for identifying winning short-term and... More
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  • Buying ERX on Oil Increase Tuesday

    The Oxen Group has been pushing for the downward trending of oil over the past couple of weeks as it was just way too overvalued, but as oil dipped below $60 per barrel, investors, who are looking to put money back into the market, may find tomorrow is the start of a movement back up for oil. That is why we are recommending Direxion Daily Energy Bull ETF (NYSEARCA:ERX) Earnings season is under way, and thus far, the big names of Family Dollar, Alcoa, and CSX all have done better than expected and seen the economy bottoming. Tomorrow, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson release earnings and pre-market, which could continue the trend. We are bullish on Goldman Sachs to blow the earnings out of the water and continue to provide the market with a positive catalyst. The real news, however, that could spark some interest in the oil market is Singapore. The country reported that for their Q2 they moved out of a recession and are seeing growth in their economy. They even revised their country's drawback from 6-9% to 4-6%, sending up the Asian markets and the price of oil. The oil market should get a major boost from this news. Futures are already up in all three major indices, showing that investors are expecting to take the market higher. Retail sales is the big economic indicator coming out tomorrow. While retail sales do not directly affect oil, this indicator could push the market one way or another. With oil having been driven down, ERX has suffered greatly. If oil has some movement up, ERX will make a major move.

    Entry: Recommend buying in 15-30 minutes into session.

    Exit: We recommend exiting after a 3-5% increase.

    Stop Loss: We recommend a 3% stop loss on all buy in prices.

    Upper Resistance: 27.50 - 28.00

    Tags: ERX, ERY, USO, oil, crude oil, crude
    Jul 14 2:24 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Hot Topic Possibly A new Style of Day Trading

     The Oxen Group is trying out another new style of investing tomorrow. In this market, finding a single day trade you can count on pretty difficult. Tomorrow, however, we are fairly confident the market should have a solid increase. Alcoa earnings came out kicking for the beginning of Q2 earnings, and the market has responded with some of the first green futures we have seen in quite some time. With bargains in the market, Alcoa looking great, a positive report from the Fed about consumer credit, and the possibility of positive earnings from a number of tech companies. I would say this Thursday is looking as good as the market can look. Therefore, Hot Topic Inc. (NASDAQ:HOTT) may be a very nice play for some large movement. The company actually had very negative after hours news, lowering their Q2 earnings outlook and lowering their revenue estimates. The company will definitely take a stumble tomorrow morning on the news, with a 6% decline in after hours. However, if the market really does make a move up tomorrow, Hot Topic may be in a position where it can significantly move up from valley. The stock is very near a lower bollinger band, it is oversold, and it really has little room for downward momentum. The Oxen Group is confident the stock should bounce off a bottom and move upwards from there. How low it goes is the challenge, but we think a 2 to even 3 percent move downwards should be a nice play to buy in. The stock is not a great long term play, but it is a nice play off a bottom tomorrow.


    Entry: Recommend buying in around 2-3% decline from opening price or 20-45 minutes in.

    Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.

    Stop Loss: We recommend a 3% stop loss on all buy in prices

    Upper Resistance: 7.25

    Jul 09 2:15 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Family Dollar Earnings: The Real Mover Will Be Dollar Tree

    The Oxen Group is surprised by how much the market is not thinking about the earnings coming out on Wednesday morning from Family Dollar Stores Inc. that The Oxen Group believes could be a real market mover. The Oxen Group is pretty bullish on Family Dollar earnings, but we have learned our lessons in the past from putting our hopes in earnings only to be disappointed. While we are excited about Family Dollar earnings, what we can say for sure is that Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) will move up or down with Family Dollar. If FDO beats expectations, we can expect Dollar Tree to significantly move up throughout the day. On the other hand, if Family Dollar does not beat expectations Dollar Tree will most definitely be a perfect short sale. What we like about Dollar Tree over Family Dollar is that Family Dollar is going to bounce up or down right into the session that a lot of movement off the morning prices will be less than Dollar Tree. The market really could be moving on Family Dollar's earnings, so if they are positive it could be a nice sign for the market. Further, crude oil inventories are supposed to come out lower than last week, which might be a piece that could actually make the oil market have a real reason to reverse its current direction. The market seems to be almost perfectly following what energy is doing right now, and if inventories are good, it could further help the Dollar Tree move up on a bullish market. Technically, Dollar Tree is in a perfect position to move tomorrow on bullish news, as well. The stock is extremely oversold, way too undervalued, and ready for a technical rise.

    Entry: Recommend buying from 5-20 minutes into session whether short selling or buying.

    Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.

    Stop Loss: We recommend a 3% stop loss on all buy in prices

    Upper Resistance: 43.00 or 39.50

    Disclosure: No Positions


     
    Jul 08 1:10 AM | Link | Comment!
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