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The Oxen Group is a financial analysis and investment opportunities newsletter-based website run by financial analyst David Ristau and features several other traders. Ristau and team have been working in stocks for several years and has developed a knack for identifying winning short-term and... More
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The Oxen Group
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Marketfy - Option Spread Portfolio
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  • The Afternoon Snack: Market Rebounds on Fed News, Big Day for Oxen Group
    2011 continued to show strength as the market rebounded off midday lows to finish neutral. The major news on the day was that the Fed has announced they will continue $600B treasury bond buying program that is supposed to help jumpstart the economy by giving more money for the government to use for employment purposes. The market fell early as investors started to take profits on a number of overvalued equities, but the market rallied after the Fed minutes as investors were happy to hear that the Fed is continuing to pump money into the economy.

    The Dow finished up 19. The Nasdaq finished down 10. The S&P 500 finished down 2. Gold finished down 43. Oil finished down 2.5.

    On the economics front, there was positive news out from factory orders and auto sales. Factory orders rose in December to 0.7%, while consensus estimates were expected to be at -0.3%. Auto sales were on the upswing to finish out 2010, which is a positive sign for what may happen in 2011 as buyers continue to move back into big-ticket items.
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    Company news was very limited before the first major round of earnings in 2011 and in a couple weeks. Ford and General Motors announced that they saw sales rose 15% and 6%, respectively. Grocery stores were downgrade targets on Tuesday as the companies appear slightly overvalued moving into 2011.

    The Oxen Group performed very well on the day. We entered four positions on the day, and we were able to exit four positions. In the morning Oxen Report, we recommended a position in USAT at 1.31 that we were able to quicklyturn for a 2.3% gain to exit at 1.34. We were able to exit our Buy Pick from yesterday in Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) for a 2.09% as the stock rallied after a Monday downgrade. We got out of half of our Dec. 30 Macy's position at 25.40 for a 0.80% gain as the stock was looking to move down. We also were able to exit SONC at 10.14 on average for 80% of the position, holding the rest into earnings.

    Moving into tomorrow, we are holding positions in Macy's (NYSE:M), RUTH, Sonic (NASDAQ:SONC), and TAM. We reentered Macy's at 24.75 as the stock looked too weak moving into what could be a big day for retail tomorrow on December sales news. We picked up RUTH as it hit a low it has not seen in weeks at 4.59, and we are looking to exit at 4.68. We also picked up shares of SONC at lunchtime to play a late-day move. We exited 80% before the close, but we are 20% into earnings as the company looks underestimated and does not have a lot of downward movement left in it. Finally, we are still holding our Play of the Week in TAM. We are waiting for a Goldman Sachs upgrade to take shape. We have lowered our estimates to 24.62 for this one.

    We had a really positive thing happen today. At the beginning of the day, I speculated for members that we would probably see this pulldown as a buying opportunity. We bought three new positions that have all gone green. The market is still very bullish, and we should use pullbacks as chances to reload on positions we like. Moving into tomorrow, we have important retail earnings. Those will be pretty crucial to tomorrow. I am expecting them to be positive.

    That's it for today.

    Good Investing!

    David Ristau

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Tags: SONC, M, URBN, USAT, LFL
    Jan 04 4:04 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Afternoon Snack: Light Trading Can’t Stop Bulls, Facebook IPO?, and Oxen Group Unveils Longterm Portfolio
    The markets continued higher today on thin trading as the S&P 500 is looking to have its best December in two decades. There was no tremendous news that moved the markets. Rather, thin trading tends to harken momentum that is hard to overcome, and the market has continued to register positive momentum. Investors have continued to see positive data throughout December, which has allowed them to believe that next year's prospects should be strong. The dollar's decline helped the markets, but its decline is most likely due to positive movement on stocks.

    The Dow finished up (). The Nasdaq finished up (). The S&P 500 finished up (). Gold finished (). Silver finished ().
    On the economics front, there was no major data still out. Tomorrow, the market will get a bevy of data, however, from the pending home sales to crude oil inventories to jobless claims to the Chicago PMI. All pieces of data should have a major influence on the market. It will be interesting to see if disappointing news will be viewed as a buying opportunity or the badnews will hurt the markets significantly with a lot of overvalued and toppy equities.

    In other company news, Facebook may have to debut its first IPO after SEC investigates its private trading and the shadow market that surrounds it. BJ's Wholesale (NYSE:BJ) was up big today after news that the company may get a buyout bid from Leonard Green & Partners. Sears Holding (NASDAQ:SHLD) announced that they will be launching an on-demand video service that they hope can rival Netflix. It sent shares up more than 6%.

    The Oxen Group performed well on the day. We exited three positions (2 positive, 1 negative) and positioned ourselves into another position. We were able to make a quick 3.5% on our recommendation of Rightnow Tech (NASDAQ:RNOW). After a large drop yesterday on a single trade, the stock was well undervalued. The company got an upgrade in addition to help their cause from Piper Jaffray. We were able to recommend entry at 21.99 and saw shares soar to 21.77 before exiting. We made another quick 3% with Bank of Ireland (NYSE:IRE) as the stock went from 2.52 to 2.58 during the trading day per our recommendation. We lost 3%, however, on Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:SRS) as the ETF continued to fell.

    Additionally, The Oxen Group launched its brand new Longterm Ratings Portfolio. The Portfolio is modeled off the Longterm Ratings that cover a number of companies. This portfolio has recommended positions in thirteen equities on a longterm outlook. Some of the companies involved include Baidu, shorting Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Dean Foods, and Trina Solar. The Portfolio is the third for The Oxen Group, which also has a short-term Buy Pick portfolio and Short Portfolio.

    Moving into tomorrow, we are holding positions in a Short Sale in SINA Corp. (NASDAQ:SINA) that was entered at an average position of 70.42. This stock has been a narrow trading range that has not allowed for much movement. We are holding a mid-term position in GFI Group (NYSE:GFIG) as well with an entry at 4.60, looking for a 3% gain before exit.

    My take is that we have a big day coming into tomorrow. Bad news would tell a lot, while good news should continue a run up. If we receive bad news, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. If we have a sharp decline without much bottoming intraday, that would be a bearish signal. My guess is that a 1% movement down will only create buying opportunities that will be quickly covered back up. We will see...

    That's it for today.

    Good Investing!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Dec 29 3:49 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Oxen Group Reiterates Hold Rating on Ryland Homes, Fair Value at $20


    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Dec 27 12:59 PM | Link | Comment!
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