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The Oxen Group
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The Oxen Group is a financial analysis and investment opportunities newsletter-based website run by financial analyst David Ristau and features several other traders. Ristau and team have been working in stocks for several years and has developed a knack for identifying winning short-term and... More
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The Oxen Group
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  • Let's Get Into Housing Shorts

    The Oxen Group, for Wednesday, is looking at a continued bearish market for a third straight day. With today's bullish economic data, investors still sold off stocks, pointing to a bear market that should continue as a bland day continues tomorrow. Most analysts think that Obama's financial regulation plans should not do much for the market. Futures are up, in after hours, but with this data, if a rally cannot be held, then there is no reason why we should expect a positive day at this time. The CPI will determine the day. One industry that really looks bearish tomorrow, however, is housing. The housing industry got a shot with, on the surface, bullish news. Instead, the housing market ended up with minimal gains or in the red across the board. Investors are not into the market with volume being light. Tomorrow, should continue a downward trend for housing sparked by a downgrade from Beazer Homes to ultra-junk status by the S&P that sent the stock down 10% in after hours. This is really a market that needs some very bullish jolt to get it going, and it until that happens this market is fundamentally bearish. With that said, Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate looks to be a strong play as an inverse to the housing industry, which should fall after its "run up" today. Technically, the ETF has been moving and is trending upwards with more buyers getting involved, yet it is not even overvalued on RSI and has reversed stochastics. That means a lot of buyers are still on the sidelines to short housing. Buy in early and watch the run!

    Entry: Recommend buying within first 5 - 25 minutes.
    Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
    Upper Resistance: 22.50

     

    Disclosure: No positions.

     
    Jun 17 1:02 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Looking for a Financial Pullback..SKF

    The Oxen Group, for Tuesday, is looking at a continued bearish market. There has been no news to bring the market up, and investors are not involved, meaning light volume, less buyers, and lower prices. Financials should recede even further on Tuesday off of a down day on Monday. In after hours, most news coming out of the sector was bearish. To start, American Express Co. and Bank of America Corp. announced that they saw extreme inreases in credit card defaults in April. This may play into a larger tune that has been played that financials earnings in Q2 will be weak. Further, UBS, while a Swiss bank, was being reviewed by Moody's for a potential downgrade as it sees the Swiss banking industry, as well as, UBS' positions in America because of possible losses. The downgrade, if tomorrow, will send waves through the industry, and even if it does not come, the rumor will be bearish. Asian markets were being driven down on Tuesday, led by financials. Further, the market for tomorrow will be led by inflation news. If it is bad at all, this means higher interest rates and less loans for banks. There seems to be too many fundamentals going against the market. That is why playing Ultrashort Proshares Financial ETF (NYSEARCA:SKF) is a perfect inverse play to the financials. The ETF cannot easily be analyzed on technicals, but its underbought and undervalued. This means that there is a lot of potential for buyers. On a day like tomorrow, SKF could have a nice run.

    Entry: Recommend buying within first 20 minutes.

    Exit: We recommend exiting after a 3-5% increase.

    Upper Resistance: 44.50

     
    Jun 16 1:06 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Pefect Time to Enter Oil Short Market

    The Oxen Group, for Monday, is looking at what
    may be a bearish day. The lack of economic data,
    fears of inflation rates, a lack of stable economic
    data, and a lack of major news and economic data
    tomorrow may hurt the ability for prices to move
    up. Further, this should hurt the ability for oil to
    move up. Oil prices were falling in Asia on Monday,
    and Asian commodity expert Ken Hasegawa said this
    price drive should be ending and moving back to $65
    per barrel. The price drive has not been on
    fundamentals and profit taking should occur very
    soon. The Oxen Group agrees that profit taking will
    happen this week, and in a bearish market, that will
    occur much more likely. Gas prices jumped
    seventeen in the last two weeks, which is anther sign
    that a pullback is in the works, as the rise is not at
    all based in fundamentals. With this said, Direxion
    Daily Energy Bear ETF (NYSEARCA:ERY). This ETF moves at a
    high volatility, meaning that oil's move backwards
    will be even more beneficial to you. If fundamentals
    are not enough for you, technically, a pullback is
    necessary. Oil is overvalued, overbought, and
    moved too high, too fast. ERY is extremely
    undervalued on Relative Strength Index, has moved
    way too low on fast stochastics, and near its lower
    bollinger band. These technicals show a sign that
    the prices should moving back up. Oil prices should
    take profits from the gains last week. Get into ERY
    tomorrow and rise the decline in oil prices.

    Entry: Recommend buying  within first 15-30
    minutes.

    Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-5% increase.

    Upper Resistance: 19.25

     
    Jun 15 2:15 PM | Link | Comment!
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