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The Oxen Group is a financial analysis and investment opportunities newsletter-based website run by financial analyst David Ristau and features several other traders. Ristau and team have been working in stocks for several years and has developed a knack for identifying winning short-term and... More
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  • October Leaves Oxen Report Buy Portfolio Up 109% on Year, Short Sale Portfolio Up Nearly 37%

     

    October was another solid month for the Oxen Report, but some gains were limited by two major losses in FSI International (FSII) and Skechers (SKX). Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Portfolio for 2010 is up 109% so far this year with 155 trades. We have gotten 117 of these 155 actionable trades correct, giving the portfolio a 75.5% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Portfolio is up nearly 39% thus far this year on 71 trades, and it has over an 83% success rate with 59 correct trades. Month-over-month, the Buy Portfolio went up 8% from September, and Short Sale Portfolio went up 5%. Finally, we have a new portfolio that just started in September, which is the Longterm Ratings. This portfolio is summarized below. Our 2009 portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.
     
    The way that my portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account portfolio for September of 2010 is available. The portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
     
    The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Portfolio
     
    10/01/10FAS21.7821.830.22%5.05  5696.33 19430.72
    10/05/10STZ17.7517.931.00%29.44   3731.5819460.16
    10/06/10Mar37.6836.18-4.20%-180.54185.24   19279.66
    10/06/2010 – 10/07/10DPZ13.2113.915.40%286 5839.4  19565.66
    10/11/10TSL28.829.542.50%137.78  5834.11 19703.44
    10/11/2010 – 10/13/10ISTA4.274.43 (1/2), 4.51 (½)5.00%166.6   3898.1819870.04
    10/12/10ERY38.339.042.00%72.664257.9   19942.7
    10/12/10WGO10.510.94.00%214.4 6053.8  20157.1
    10/13/10SWY20.821.423.00%165.6  5999.71 20322.7
    10/14/2010 – 10/15/10WBS18.118.522.33%82.3   3980.4820405
    10/14/2010 – 10/18/10ENTG5.035.183.00%118.94376.8   20523.9
    10/15/2010 – 10/20/10SLM11.2211.13-0.80%-56.51 5997.29  20467.39
    10/15/2010 – 10/18/10GFIG4.935.14.00%198.72  6198.43 20666.11
    10/18/10FAS21.4522.093.00%110.4   4090.8820776.51
    10/18/10HBAN5.715.6-2.00%-92.264284.54   20684.25
    10/19/2010 – 10/25/10TSL26.34 (DD)27.64.80%571.38 6282.986484.12 21255.63
    10/19/2010 – 10/20/2010FSII3.062.58-15.50%-649.28   3441.620606.35
    10/20/10 – 10/25/10ENTG4.854.932.00%62.644347.18   20668.99
    10/21/2010 – 10/25/10AAWW52.9254.874.50%118.75   3560.3520787.74
    10/25/2010 – 10/28/10SKX23.823.75 (1/2), 19.44 (½)-9.25%-341.29   3219.0620446.45
    10/26/2010 – 11/01/10YGE11.62 (DD)11.741.00%101.684398.446334.24  20548.13
    10/27/2010 – 10/28/10KEG1010.15 (1/3), 10.30 (1/3), 10.02 (1/3)1.60%82.6 6365.58  20630.73
    10/27/2010 – 10/28/10KKD5.635.670.60%38.04  6522.16 20668.77
    10/28/2010 – 11/01/10JKS29.9930.90 (2/3), 36.35 (1/3)9.10%315.14   3534.220983.91


    Short Sale Portfolio
     
    The Short Sale Portfolio, which is up over 29% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Portfolio. The only difference is that the Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
     
    10/01/10GYMB50.251.582.75%77.56   9789.42
    10/07/2010 – 10/08/2010WFR12.92 (DD)12.682.00%109.683215.513458.92 9899.1
    10/11/10FO55.1555.35-0.45%-19.4  3134.489879.7
    10/19/10STX15.615.32.00%53.83269.31  9933.5
    10/21/10AXP (Buy)39.840.10.75%17.8 3476.72 9951.3
    10/21/10IIIN (DD)9.188.932.80%77.25  3211.7310028.55
    10/26/10ENTG (Buy)5.425.675.00%142.753412.06  10171.3
    10/26/10SCHN5251.70.60%11.8 3488.52 10183.1
    10/28/10KKD (Buy)5.515.673.20%85.12  3298.8510268.22
     
    Long Term Ratings
     
    Date of Initial RatingStockEntry RatingExit RatingCurrent RatingFV Estimate
    09/10/10FSLRBelow 130Above 198Hold174
    09/14/10SKXBelow 22Above 32Hold28.5
    09/17/10ALGNBelow 15Above 24.50Hold22
    09/21/10CREEBelow 44Above 61Hold56
    09/23/10RYLBelow 15.25Above 22Hold20
    09/27/10FTRBelow 13.50Above 15Buy16
    09/28/10TSLBelow 27Above 45Hold38.5
    09/29/10GMCRBelow 17Above 25Sell22
    10/01/10JWNBelow 33Above 52Hold45
    10/05/10JCIBelow 27Above 43Hold35
    10/07/10PAYXBelow 27Above 36Hold34
    10/13/10SPWRABelow 15Above 24Buy21.5
    10/20/10FBelow 11.50Above 20Hold17
    10/22/10JACKBelow 24Above 31Buy30
    10/29/10BIGBelow 41Above 59Buy54
     
    Good Investing,
     
    David Ristau 

     

     

     

    Disclosure: none
    Tags: FAS, STZ, MAR, DPZ, TSL, ISTA, ERY, WGO, ENTG, SLM, GFIG, SKX, JKS
    Nov 02 3:38 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • The Daily Discourse: The Cost and Benefit of College Education

    Can we look at college education like an investment? In some ways…yes. College education, on average, for public education costs $10,000 per year. For private education, college costs per year, on average, about $27,000. That would be $40,000 or $108,000 for four years…a hefty investment. 

    The reward, though, is that an average college degree gains a person on average $53,000 in earnings versus $32,500 for just a high school diploma. In a forty year career, if one just earns the average, a person with a college degree will earn over $2,100,000 in a forty year career. With a high school diploma, the person will earn $1.3 million. A Bachelor’s Degree can help one gain an extra $800,000 in their life for a $100,000 investment. A 700% gain in forty years is a solid 17% annual return. That is an investment that no one should want to resist.

    Yet, that number could possibly be an even better return in the future. College tuition has increased at 1,000% since costs in 1978. That rise is well above the rise in CPI and home prices, which have increased at 250% and 300% since that time. When home prices started to break away from CPI, home prices created an awful bubble that popped. Will college education’s bubble pop sometime soon? 

    As of recent, we have seen a lot of signs that this bubble is starting to pop. First, loans are starting to dry up for the private market. Further, the decline in home values is making home equity loans less possible. Leveraging, further, is not something many want to take on, and endowments are drying up as well. This has been the reason why community colleges, public institutions, and for-profit associate programs are rising in applications…40% in 2009. 

    Can this break the private bubble? 

    Another sign that the bubble may decline is that the baby boomer’s baby boom of college-aged students is set to decline. The number of college-aged students is set to decline after 2010. Vermont is set to lose 20% of high school seniors. The Great Plains are set to lose 10%. The decline in demand should also reduce prices. 

    Yet, institutions continue to increase prices. At some point, the trend has to break. College education, especially on the private side, has always been for the well-heeled, but it may start to lose some of its allure to middle-class. My college, Lake Forest College, a small, private liberal arts institution north of Chicago just increased its base tuition from $40,000 to $42,000 this year. I’m glad I am done there.

    We will have to wait and see when this bubble does finally burst…

    Good Investing!



    Disclosure: none
    Jul 20 11:30 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Discourse: One of the Best Signs We are Moving in the Right Direction

     

    One of the best signals of a returning economy to me is in investments, whether it be stocks, IPOs, mergers, or acquisitions. When companies are confident that they can make investments that will pay off. Venture capital took a literal halt in 2008 to back IPOs, which means that venture capital investments, in general, took a standstill.

    In 2008, there was only one VC-backed IPO. In 2009, there were only twelve. In 2010, there has already been 26. The gains are amazing, and they show that capital investments are returning. Further, it shows even more importantly that companies are confident in the market.

    Companies only do IPOs when they think the market is strong enough to sustain a price level that companies want in order to make the money they need to raise for operations. Companies are starting to believe in our market again, which is a great sign.

    Yet, instability does remain. Three IPOs were withdrawn in the Q2. The fear of debts in Europe and general market fears causes IPOs to withdraw. The withdraws are declining, but the instability is stil seen through that statistic.

    VCs are willing to back more often when exit options are available. If an exit market is not available, then VC firms will not be willing to make investments. In Q2, there were 79 M&As at nearly $5 billion compared to deals valued at just over $2 billion one year ago. The vibrance of an exit market means that VC firms will continue to make more investments, which gives more fuel to M&As and more IPOs. It is all connected.

    In Southern California, the VC firms invested $1.6 billion, according to socalTech.com. This stat was up from just $1 billion in Q2 2009. The top sector was pharmaceuticals followed by energy. The largest deal was in Amonix, which is a solar-powered PV developer. 

    The continued success of VC will help our market and is a great sign of what is to come.

     

    Good Investing,

    David Ristau



    Disclosure: none
    Jul 07 10:40 AM | Link | Comment!
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