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The Patient Investor

 
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  • Short And Sweet: Microsoft Downgraded [View article]
    In this day and age why is anybody stupid enough to pay for office, or the windows operating system when you can get open office/libre office for free, use it with the Google cloud system, and get free operating systems (linux, android, and Chrome) that work as well or better than Microsoft's operating system.

    This company is in a worse position than IBM was in 1983 to 1989 and if they don't get someone in management who knows what he is doing this is going to be one great big train wreck.

    Windows 8 is an attempt by the "monster" to say do it my way. I am going to obsolete my old windows operating systems so you have to buy the new one. Screw the bastards, I was going to buy the new operating system until my son described what they did with windows 8. The beta version had a windows 7 front end but they deleted it in the final version - another greedy corporation screwing their customers.

    My son works as an application programer and the company he works for is converting all their existing programs to run under Linux, Chrome or Android operating systems. And all their clients are being advised to switch to one of these operating systems as soon as practical. They have already switched about 15% of their clients and are projecting that within 2 to 4 years 80% to 90% of all clients will be on one of these operating systems - many large government agencies and corporations are no longer developing new systems using windows any longer this has just started within the last 6 to 18 months. At the present time about 30% of their clients are not using windows as their primary government or corporate operating system.

    Thank god he clued me into this situation so I could avoid what appears to be a very bad situation in the future. I am not saying they are going out of business. It will probably be like what has happened to HP unless they get somebody that understands what is happening in computers and related technology - since the internet started they have been way behind the power curve. Although the Windows operating system and Office have saved them which is about to change dramatically.

    It is kind of funny one of my cousins works for Microsoft in the windows operating division and he gave a surface tablet to his mother for xmas and she is a very savvy computer user - hasn't touched it because she didn't want to have to deal with a new operating system when she new how to use the existing operating system.

    Talking about dumb SOB's when your mother refuses to use it once she gets it for free you should get the message but they have such stupid management they don't get it.
    Apr 13 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft And The Windows 8 Conundrum [View article]
    In this day and age why is anybody stupid enough to pay for office when you can get open office/libre office for free and use it with the Google cloud system.

    Windows 8 is an attempt by the "monster" to say do it my way. I am going to obsolete my old windows operating system so you have to buy the new one. Screw the bastards, I was going to buy the new operating system until my son described what they did with windows 8. The beta version had a windows 7 front end but they deleted it in the final version - another greedy corporation screwing their customers.

    It is kind of funny one of my cousins works for Microsoft in the windows operating division and he gave a surface tablet to his mother for xmas and she is a very savvy computer user - hasn't touched it because she didn't want to have to deal with a new operating system when she new how to use the existing operating system.

    Talking about dumb SOB's when your mother refuses to use it once she gets it for free you should get the message but they have such stupid management they don't get it.
    Apr 13 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 14,000: Are You The Sucker? [View article]
    I think your analysis is correct but your conclusion is wrong. I have been trading in the market for over 50 years and based on my analysis of stocks right now they are under valued as a group by 15% to 20% and some stocks are under valued by as much as 50% or more. The market is saying the economy is going to be much better 9 to 12 months than now. This market is a repeat of 1962 to 1963 and that we will ultimately go into a period similar to the1920's, 1960's and 1990's.
    Having said that the economy and the stock market could still wind up being a massive train wreck if the federal government spending isn't brought under control and the European situation isn't fixed. I think both of these things will work out until the late 2010's.
    Then the baby boom generation may sink the economy and stock market because of pension, social security, and health care funding problems if the federal government doesn't solve these problems with these systems in the mean time.
    Feb 6 08:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Business Development Companies: The Good, The Bad, And The Maybe? Part 2 [View article]
    I also own or have owned all of the BDC's that you have commented on in the article and I think you are spot on regarding your comments, very good article.

    The only thing I would like to add is that Prospect (PSEC) has done something that I am not aware of any other BDC doing which is purchase controlling interest in three lenders of Higher yield loans. These are set up as partnerships and income will flow through to PSEC without paying tax on the profits and out to the shareholders of PSEC. In two of the cases Wells Fargo has provided a 75 million line of credit to the entity purchased by PSEC, two of the transactions just occurred. Management of these companies is staying in all cases and owns a minority interest in the entities. They appear to plan on expanding these operations. I expect that this should help increase the dividend rate in the next year or two after that it will depend on how these entities are managed. It appears that these companies have the management necessary to control the operations but this could increase future risk. If you look at the company news releases these purchases are explained in more detail.

    You should also look at SAR very interesting BDC company one potential problem is the stock is very thinly traded.

    Also if you are interested in high dividend paying companies you should look at RRD and PBI both of these companies may have turned the corner although it may be a little to early to tell for sure.
    Feb 6 07:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Vs. Apple: Which Is The Better Buy? [View article]
    The real questions and what will ultimately determine which stock is a better buy is the following:
    1. Will Microsoft continue dominating the software operating system market?
    2. Can Microsoft become the dominate player in mobile software?
    3. Can Apple come out with new products that can do what the ipod, ipad, and iphone have done?

    Both companies are in a unique position because of the Linux, Android, and Chrome operating systems which are basically being given away for free. Will these operating systems become the dominate systems over the long run? If these operating systems do become dominate in the next 3 to 5 years then neither of these companies will grow very much after the next 5 - 6 years unless they can come up with new high volume products.

    For Apple it is going to be especially hard because the cell phone companies are subsidizing the iphone and the iphone produces over 70% of Apples current profits. Apple will probably not be able to come up with another product that someone will subsidize like the iphone.
    Jan 14 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Canadian Oil and Gas Stocks to Invest In [View article]
    They are a much larger company so they will grow, but just more slowly than the smaller companies. They are almost all oil so they won't make additional money from converting from a natural gas to oil company like some of the other companies will. Also they are paying a high dividend which means they won't be able to reinvest the dividends into more production. So that is why their rate of growth is going to be lower, but they are still a very good company and worth investing in for the long haul. They do have a very good acreage position as you point out in your comment in various oil plays.
    May 18 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Structure an IRA or Retirement Account [View article]
    Thank you everyone for your comments
    Apr 3 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Structure an IRA or Retirement Account [View article]
    I am not ruling out anything. That is one thing I have learned over the years no matter what happens it can always get worse or better. Actually I think we have had the worst two presidents in the past 80 years number 1 being Bush and number 2 being Obama, but Obama was handed a rough hand while Bush created his. Although Obama has done little if anything, in my opinion, to improve it and as far as change goes he has carried on almost all the Bush policies. The wars, deficit spending, tax cuts and additional medical plans.

    Thank you for your comments.
    Apr 3 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Structure an IRA or Retirement Account [View article]
    You and I have differences of opinion on how inflation is caused. My point is demand increases faster than the supply of goods because of the Asian modernization/expansion. For instance the the supply of copper has barely kept up with demand and the price has increased by three to four times since the early 2000's. If we didn't have the demand from Asia the price would be $1.25 to $1.50 lb or less versus over $4.25 a lb. This is also true of many other commodities as the demand increases supply will increase but not as fast as demand so prices increase and the demand slows over what it would be if the price stayed at $1.25 to $1.50.

    Money supply plays a part but generally a much smaller part than the basic demand - supply equation.

    Thanks for the comment and I hope you found the article helpful.
    Apr 3 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Exploration and Production Company Positioned to Succeed [View article]
    They actually do frac their wells but they use low pressure fracing which costs a small fraction of what it costs in the shale plays (high pressure). The low pressure equipment and crews are readily available but the high pressure equipment and crews are in short supply. The high pressure fracing also takes much longer to perform. They also use the smaller horse power drill rigs. These rigs are readily available while the higher horse power rigs which cost a lot more are in short supply. They don't have to drill as deep and their horizontal laterals are shorter. That is why they can use the smaller rigs and reduce drilling costs which increases the rate of return and makes this such a good investment.
    Mar 25 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Apple's Valuation Could Be in 4 Years [View article]
    Go to msn.com stock section. Enter any of the symbols below then click on chart symbol and then click on splits selection below the graph, this will show the splits, then enter max for time period and redraw the chart. Enter any of the following AAN, MSFT, INTC, ORCL, AMZN or ORLY. Before these stocks IBM and Xerox would be good examples. In the last five to ten years there haven't been as many splits because the market hasn't gone up like it did in the 1990's.

    Many of the institutions would react just like individuals although as the P/E increased the more conservative would sell their stock, particularly if growth started to slow. See the Microsoft information in the 1990's and early 2000's. That is one of the reasons I suggested that the P/E and stock price would start to decline when the earnings growth started to slow in 2013 and 2014; if in fact that is what happens.
    Mar 25 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Apple's Valuation Could Be in 4 Years [View article]
    Your right, I should have said 3 for 2 or 1 additional share for every two shares outstanding. Thank you for clarifying that.
    Mar 25 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Apple's Valuation Could Be in 4 Years [View article]
    I don't know about borrowing but a stock buy back would make sense to me depending on what they want to do with the cash. They could actually have much more cash than shows on their balance sheet because they have 32 billion in long term investments. They may have a lot of gains that haven't been reported as income in those investments.
    Mar 24 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Apple's Valuation Could Be in 4 Years [View article]
    If the $240 is split 2 for 1 then it is $120 after the split. This puts it $20 above $100 so if it declines after the split it is still above $100 and if it is split 1-2 then it is $160 which is below $200 a share but gives it $80 to run to the next split. This is all based on the board and apple management wanting the stock to trade between $100 and $200 a share, or as a more expensive stock which is where it is trading now.

    I would actually rather see it trade between $80 and $120 but for some reason they appear to want the stock to be more expensive. Maybe Jobs or someone else wants the stock to trade at a higher price than Google - who knows.
    Mar 24 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Canadian Oil and Gas Stocks to Invest In [View article]
    Exxon Mobil bought XTO and got 300,000 or so acres in the U.S. Bakken but that appears just to be a throw in as far as Exxon Mobil is concerned. It appears they were after the Natural Gas lands that XTO controlled.
    Mar 22 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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