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  • Canadian Solar And A Yieldco [View article]
    Yieldco increases revenues over the longer run. If a project is sold immediately, let's say it is sold for 10 million dollars. With a yieldco, the project may earn 15 or 20 million over the course of twenty years.

    Can the project be sold after 20 years term of the Power Purchase Agreement? Maybe so. That's another chunk of revenue.
    Apr 7, 2015. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels Should Make It Through The Valley Of Death [View article]
    this is the first time I have heard anyone claim that LNG and diesel are priced equally. I have only heard from those in the industry that LNG still holds a significant price advantage. Meaning it is still something like 80 cents cheaper per gallon equivalent.

    There have been numerous professional short selling propagandists putting out misinformation on this stock. You obviously benefited from this.

    The stock is half of what it was not that long ago, but the company itself is much closer to profitability and long-term stability now than a year ago.

    The skill of the organized short sellers is great, but eventually there will be a desire to cover the short shares, and you were smart to cover at the bottom. Many millions of shares (15) will have to cover in the 5, 6, 7 or higher range.

    Just one purchase order for compressors from China Gas (with which CLNE has a 160 million dollar contract) could cause an interesting effect on the stock price. China recently announced a strong desire to fight its awful pollution and increase alternative fuel use in its cities.
    Mar 6, 2015. 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Achillion Pharma initiates equity offering [View news story]
    On heels of successful drug trial, this seems to indicate that the drug trial success was very significant and will result in major profits.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar: Well Positioned For The Future [View article]
    Shawn Qu essentially admitted that yieldco is coming on CNBC or Bloomberg, can't remember. This was a few days ago. The yieldco will put CSIQ on par with SUNE in terms of project development magnitude.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Canadian's press release says they will avoid paying import duties by manufacturing in Ontario. They will have to get their cells from somewhere other than China or Taiwan if they want to avoid all import duties. Can they buy cells from Solarworld, lol?

    Wherever they get the cells from, the assemblage taking place in Canada gives them an advantage with transport and product image. Of course if they can avoid import duties that gives them an edge over other Chinese companies.

    But it seems forgotten that CSIQ gets most of their value-added gross margin not from the panel sales of a project but by every other step of the project, so a small hit on panel margin is likely marginal compared to the overall gross margin of project sales in US.

    Plus, much more of their sales will come from China in Q4 2014 and all of 2015. They have yet to announce much on their partnership in China for project development. They have the Brazilian projects. And the quick rise in project development is mostly happening outside of the USA. Latin America will be a much bigger market in 2015. Asia will be much, much bigger than USA. Some multiple. Japan plus China plus India may represent over 20 GW in 2015.

    Then add the places that are just getting started in Asia -- Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan. These are hundred-million population nations that are far closer to the equator than Beijing. They will each be GW nations in the next year or two.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Anybody have any opinion on how much costs for solar panel makers will diminish as a result of lower oil prices? Transport can be a major cost. Plus commodity prices are going down with oil. Commodities like silver and steel are important for solar panels.

    The lower oil prices represent a multi-trillion dollar bonus for oil importing nations. China will benefit by the tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. What they do with this surplus? Perhaps some of it will go into restructuring their energy generation. More solar, less coal.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Great info. One article stated that Recurrent does own its own manufacturing facilities. I do not know if this includes cell manufacturing, which would be key for circumventing the 2012 import duty rules, the ones now relevant. Thus, if they do buy Recurrent, perhaps they then also solve their import duty issue.

    If not, perhaps they will, as you say, buy a cell plant in India. How about the Philippines? They are still importing massive amounts of energy and suffering black out situations.

    I have to think that many investors are also waiting for the yieldco details.

    But I also believe that this will return to a p/e of 10 and above, meaning over 40 in stock price.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    The current stock price has little to do with the fundamentals of the company, but rather knee-jerk selling by energy traders. Once oil stabilizes, this stock will move steadily upwards back to 40. I expect a great deal of new business in the United States. CSIQ may even find a way of circumventing the U.S. import duties soon. For instance, does Recurrent have a manufacturing plant in Malaysia?

    Another catalyst may be the announcement of a yieldco.

    Another may be the trade dispute settlement between US and China.

    Another may be the announcement of the next set of solar projects. Still waiting on the China projects to be announced.

    Stock buyback?

    Big deal with an Indian province?

    The stock has bottomed out and an announcement could send it rocketing.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    How much more can CSIQ benefit from scale? How far are they from being industry leader on cost per panel? And are they industry leader on cost per project megawatt?

    At 50 cents per watt per panel and one of the top 3 or 4 most experienced big fully integrated solar project developers, I would think that CSIQ, with Chinese manufacturing center, would be perhaps the cost leader in project development.
    Dec 10, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    Thank you for the detailed article. For the investors, watch as those selling at 23.5 buy the stock back at 27.00.
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Factoring Fear Into Canadian Solar Valuation [View article]
    sometimes investors either think the same way or agree to act the same way; to drive the stock down to the low of 22's may have been such a gambit. Now that the stock has hit that agreed-upon level (look at charts please), the stock can go back to the highe level of 40. Then someone will short this again.
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar: A Bright Future Ahead? [View article]
    CSIQ p/e now about 5.
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels Should Continue Improving [View article]
    too much focus on the trucks. their work in bulk fueling and their IMW division could surprise investors and make them a profitable quarter sooner than expected. also, shipping containers of LNG to Hawaii is a wild card, but a very wild one. whatever the case, the main business -- CNG sales to sanitation, taxis, etc -- is still growing steadily and has a ways to go. Would not be surprised if CNG takes the vast majority of sanitation truck fuel sales.
    Aug 29, 2014. 07:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An End To Hunger Worldwide Is Within Easy Reach. Will Whole Foods Or Tesla Lead The Effort? [View instapost]
    I am long JKS, by the way.
    Jul 23, 2014. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport Innovations: Finally Ready To Move Higher [View article]
    crazy number of product launches lately.
    Jun 5, 2014. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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