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The PolyCapitalist
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My investing and writing are primarily focussed on macro areas such as currencies, commodities, global investing, and geopolitics. I also closely monitor technology. I generally have a medium to longer-term investment horizon. I encourage you to review the track record of my published articles... More
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  • What's the Difference Between 'Financial Repression' and 'Macroprudential Regulation'?
    The most striking remark made by former Bundesbank Chief and ECB frontrunner Axel Weber in a recent WSJ interview were his comments on the possibility of using financial repression to solve the Greek and wider European debt crisis:
    “Ultimately, there will be a debate about financial repression. Take what we had in Germany — the Zwangsanleihe [compulsory loans introduced after World War I to help make reparation payments]. If voluntary contributions don’t add up, then the one tool that is still on the shelf is financial repression.”
    To my knowledge, this is the first time a major senior policymaker (albeit one who recently stepped down) has publicly used the term 'financial repression'. As economist Carmen Reinhart and others have noted, the policies associated with financial repression are typically couched under the more benign, positive sounding 'macroprudential regulation'.

    Continue reading here.
    Jun 30 10:22 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Pakistan 101: Bhutto Movie Review and Trailer
     Pakistan is complex, messy, and an absolutely crucial place for the world to better understand.

    Pakistan is described as a military that happens to have have a country attached to it. The Economist recently argued that the Pakistani-Indian border is the world's most dangerous (although I'd argue back that the North Korean-South Korean border is perhaps equally if not more dangerous). The country has nuclear weapons and has trafficked nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya. It is also perhaps ground zero in the War on Terror.

    In the U.S., many questions have arisen since Osama bin Laden was killed in Pakistan about just how reliable a friend is Pakistan? Since 2002 the U.S. has sent nearly $20 billion in military and other aid to the country, with another $3 billion slated for 2011. How is that aid being used? Is this policy helpful or harmful to not only the U.S.'s interests, but Pakistan's?

    Continue reading here.
    Jun 18 3:04 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Fareed Zakaria Needs to Study More History
    A good geopolitical discussion with CNN host and Time magazine editor Fareed Zakaria on Charlie Rose,although I take issue with one of his suggestions.

    Charlie asked him for his prescription for preventing conflict between the U.S. and China, and his response smacked of the same arguments and thinking which were prevalent prior to World War I.

    Fareed stated that if the U.S. and China can increase their "dependencies" then this would prevent war from occurring. I was surprised to hear Fareed say this as he generally gives off the impression as someone who is well versed in history.

    Continue reading here.
    Jun 13 4:09 AM | Link | Comment!
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