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The PolyCapitalist
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My investing and writing are primarily focussed on macro areas such as currencies, commodities, global investing, and geopolitics. I also closely monitor technology. I generally have a medium to longer-term investment horizon. I encourage you to review the track record of my published articles... More
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  • "Modern Keynesianism works great until it doesn’t" -David Einhorn
    An interesting read in today's op-ed section of the NY Times from the man who called Lehman's bankruptcy and prominent gold bull, David Einhorn.

    One of Einhorn's claims is that inflation, according to the conspiratorial sounding website Shadow Government Statistics, is actually running at 9% if you use the pre-1980 calculation method, as compared to the current 2% calculated via the current CPI method.

    May 27 11:28 PM | Link | Comment!
  • U.S. Debt Clock
     

    Warning: for several reasons perhaps, this website may give you a headache. 

     

    Mouse over items for the data source and to see how the figure is calculated.



    Disclosure: Short: long-term U.S. treasuries
    May 26 2:51 PM | Link | Comment!
  • A man who's used 1991 book sells for a minimum of $1,850 on Amazon
     Agora Financial's recent 5 Minute Forecast highlighted a talk Seth Klarman, head of the $22 billion Baupost Group, gave to the CFA Institute in Boston. From "The 5":

    "The government is now in the business of giving bad advice. By holding interest rates at zero, the government is basically tricking the population into going long on just about every kind of security except cash, at the price of almost certainly not getting an adequate return for the risks they are running. People can't stand earning 0% on their money, so the government is forcing everyone in the investing public to speculate." 

    "For our parents or grandparents,” Klarman contends “it was awful to have had a Great Depression. But it was in some ways helpful to carry a Depression mentality throughout their later lives, because it meant they were thrifty with their money and prudent in their investment decisions.

    “All we got out of this crisis was a ‘Really Bad Couple of Weeks’ mentality."

    Klarman says he is “more worried about the world, more broadly, than I ever have been in my career. Will money be worth anything if governments keep intervening anytime there's a crisis to prop things up?"

    I really don't have anything to add to Klarman's sentiment beyond my resounding agreement, but I do a have thought I'd like to share with my librarian readers. And I should preface the following by saying that I have the utmost respect and appreciation for the library sciences. And as Mr. Klarman speaks of grandparents, I should add that my beloved Grandma Erma Hileman was not only a librarian but also had a healthy Great Depression forged world view. However, librarians everywhere should take note that in some cases your LINK+ $125 library fine for not returning a book is proving to be an insufficient deterrent. I confirmed that while a few libraries still list Karman's book in their catalog that all copies of his $1,850 treatise are missing.


    Disclosure: Long: Gold. Short: long-term U.S. treasuries
    May 25 5:42 PM | Link | Comment!
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