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The Scepticist

 
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  • Best Ideas For 2014: Long GCVRZ [View article]
    I'll quote Charlie Munger: “At Berkshire we have three buckets: yes, no and too hard. We just throw some decisions into the ‘too hard’ file and go onto the others.” .... guess what bucket I'm gonna throw this one in ;-) ?
    Dec 25 04:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SkyPeople Fruit Juice An Undervalued Healthy Growth Stock [View article]
    Yes, you're right: gross margins of Pepsico and Coca (for their orange juice manufacturance) are around 50% and are larger.

    But you're missing the point here: if your company is a virtual nobody without any branding, retailers will give you just enough to cover operational costs. You think retailers don't do research about margins when they negotiate a price? Gross margins of 28% don't make sence when you're claiming you're dealing with large retailers like Wallmart. This is how retailers do business!
    Feb 6 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SkyPeople Fruit Juice An Undervalued Healthy Growth Stock [View article]
    Hehe, in a comment above you stated: " To be cautious and skeptical is good"

    Well, I just raised 8 very straight forward points and you simply throw them off the table by saying you already rebutted them. Well, if you stated it be4, it should be just copy and paste wouldn't it?

    Please enlighten me!
    Feb 5 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SkyPeople Fruit Juice An Undervalued Healthy Growth Stock [View article]
    There is a huge serie of red flags on this company. I would write an article about it, but I don't want to get sued like the last guy. I'm not stating this company is fraudulaus, I'm just giving my opinion.

    1. Audit firm has changed 3 times over short time span

    2. Audit firms are unknown: Last audit firm also (Paritz&company) received a very negative review from PCAOB in 2009 (http://bit.ly/Wqs2UX)

    3. Gross margins: margins are coming close to these of PepsiCo and Coca. This means that company is very efficient and well positioned at the same time. Pretty impressive for a small business without any branding. Especially when it claims it does business with Wallmart, a retailer notorious for its (profit squeezing) supply chain power. In fact the whole picture seems weird to me: an unknown, unbranded product positioning itself as a high quality product.

    4. Sales growth is driving itself? Sales costs are pretty low and it seems like growth is growing on trees.

    5. Capex is very low: FCF is higher then profit. This company claims to work with ultra modern equipment. If you have some industrial experience you'll find out that everything breaks down after a while and you have to keep investing in maintenance of equipment in order to keep things running. This company is amazingly efficient in extracting cash from business.

    6. CEO is also owner of China Tianren Organic Food Holding. China Tianren Organic Food already got delisted for being a fraudulaus shell company.

    7.Ghost product: I've searched Chinese websites for hours with a fellow investor, hoping to find some customer review on their product. I found nothing but stock related info... (I suggest you try it yourself: also do the test with any other product in your fridge.) I also can't find any info of stores selling the product.

    8. R&D and patents are a joke?: Company filed some patents in China. Intelectual property rights in China are virtually worthless. If they were really on to something they would file patent in EU or US.
    Feb 4 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Harman Overpriced Or Still Worth A Buy? [View article]
    Future senior analist in spe!

    Great article!
    Jan 30 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Parke Bancorp: A Chronically Undervalued Financial Stock (Part II) [View article]
    This remark tends to come back. The truth is that they were loaded with loans to the Comercial Real estate and Construction & Development sectors in 2008. Other banks reported monster losses, while Parke had an extremely risky loan portfolio. Still they reported a profit in 2008. So did they pull a rabit out of their sleeve? Well....

    One and a half year later their balance sheet gets fueled with NPA's and Texas ratio quickly rose to almost double of the national average. As explained above an NPA is an unrealized loss waiting to happen. If that wasn't enough, Texas Ratio kept on rising until Q32012 while national average was trending downward. So they were taking the hit later.

    So did they dodge a bullet in 2008? I don't think so. The pain got delayed as NPA's/Texas ratio started rising very fast in Q12011. Parke has booked very high provision expenses in subsequent years so in my eyes they just spread that monster loss over the coming years . As explained in the article the 2008 heritage is far from completely digested as the bank still has a Texas ratio of >50%.

    The real question is: "why the delay?". NPA's came flooding in at Q42011. The fact is that the bank took TARP way before that in 2009. Would you sign up for very expensive
    TARP, equity if your balance sheet is all sunshine and hapiness (especially since management has a very high stake)? My guess is that they kept appearences high deliberatly, while waiting for the economic environment to improve, because lets face it... they very close to a melt down.
    Feb 14 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parke Bancorp: A Chronically Undervalued Financial Stock (Part II) [View article]
    For some reason it was in my head that average peer efficiency ratio was around 50% while it is more like 77%. I think my brain switched of here for a second. So yes, I'm wrong here!

    In my defense, the angle of the article was the asset quality rather than the income statement. But I felt I had to mention something about it anyway, and probably went too fast over it.Thnx for clearing that out.
    Feb 12 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parke Bancorp: A Chronically Undervalued Financial Stock (Part II) [View article]
    Blackhawk Bancorp:

    Less risky: better asset quality
    1.Significantly less Oreo
    2.Significantly less NPL's
    3.Texas ratio =16 % (compared to Parke's 58%)
    4. Loan portfolio has better spread, less risky sectors

    Poor profitability
    1. Low net interest margin (supported by less risky loan portfolio)
    2. Low ROA (0,5% vs Parke's 1,1 %) -> low ROE
    3. High efficiency (= peer average).
    Feb 12 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parke Bancorp: A Chronically Undervalued Financial Stock (Part II) [View article]
    they fixed it! :)
    Feb 11 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parke Bancorp: A Chronically Undervalued Financial Stock (Part II) [View article]
    All graphs I made with Excel got lost in publishing.

    This really takes away the point of the article!

    Great job Seeking Alpha!
    Feb 10 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delhaize: A Retailer With A Lot Of Problems, But Still Worth A Buy [View article]
    Define "not very good". The company has a Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.2!
    That's pretty solid in my books!
    Dec 27 06:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delhaize: A Retailer With A Lot Of Problems, But Still Worth A Buy [View article]
    Dieter, thnx for the article. Can you give your opinion on the following?

    1) Operating margin in Belgium took a hit in Q3. Why was that?

    2) How do you think future revenue and operating margin are going to evolve for bolth key markets (Belgium and US)?

    3) You correctly point out that Delhaize operates in the mid-high cost segment. How do you think the company will respond to competitors like Eldi and Albert Hein, who gain market share in this segment.

    4) What will be new managements angle? (will they go on the acquisition tour? sell segments? )

    I agree with the authors view that the company is very reasonably priced: P/FCF<10 and 4x EV/EBITDA.
    Dec 27 06:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling: A Sustainable 22% Dividend [View article]
    Interesting posts guys ... I appreaciate your concerns so here's mine:

    How reliable are the statements as every company presentation says their numbers are unaudited. Are the annual reports audited or am I missing something here?
    Sep 23 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update To My 50 Predictions For 2013 [View article]
    Highly entertaining post! GJ
    Aug 4 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcelorMittal: The Reversal Is Coming [View article]
    Low P/B, yet equity can get serious hits over the next years while restructuring debt. I do agree MT has value in the long term, but like most here I'm cautious for the short/mid term.

    I suggest a hedged exposure: Long on MT, while going short on Thyssenkrupp. Just a tought!
    Jul 13 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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