The Silver Analyst

Silver topping out?

If I recall it hit $52 intraday on the Chicago CBOT futures on 21st January 1980.


On Oct 19 01:52 PM modern pragmatist wrote:

> Is it correct that back in 1980 silver hit $40 and ounce?

Seeking Silver's Unique Fundamental

100 years is 2 million tons of silver underground. Not even the USGS uneconomic resource base comes close to that and their study is meant to cover all deposits.

Where did you get your numbers from?


On Sep 27 09:43 AM secmaven wrote:

> If we add the silver reserves associated with copper, gold, nickel,
> etc. mining to the straight silver mines we will find that there
> is enough silver still in the ground to support current production
> for 100 years. Add to this the vast stores of silver above ground
> in the form of obsolete coinage that has not been melted such as
> the hordes sitting in India and the realization hits home...the world
> is awash in silver.

World's Top Producing Oil Nations and Oil Fields

Wow, Cantarell at 660kb/d. It was nearly twice this a year or two ago. But they pushed it to its limit with water/nitrogen injection and its dropped like an exhausted overloaded nag.

Expect all big fields to go this way.

Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions

You need to inflation adjust those S&L numbers of $500 billion. They are closer to $1 trillion in today's money. The S&L crisis coincided with the last real estate slump but that one was not so leveraged...

I wrote this last year on the credit crunch and gold:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Silver and Gold Bull Market Ain't Over Yet

Let me also add to readers that this article does not imply you should load the truck right now. The timing of this graph is in years, not months or weeks. So if gold or silver drop here for the medium term that doesn't negate the long term view. You may ask what happens after the "deceleration" cycle? Clearly, gold and silver will at best enter choppy waters but I am more optimistic about that period than I would at other times because the longer term fundamentals look good as the world continues to consume finite resources at an increasing pace and (IMO) Peak Oil looms large.

Fundamentals Are in Place for Silver to Move Higher

I would emphasis again the US Dollar situation. No dollar drop - no silver rise. It's as simple as that. I too feel the dollar is near some kind of significant bottom so any silver opportunity is in a short time frame.

If the dollar breaks above its upper channel line, the bets are off and silver could take a big dive.

SLV: Is It Solvent?

Thanks for the link. Well, I don't own any ETFs - just in hand bullion and mining shares. So an ETF failure would be to my advantage though I don't think it will happen.


On Aug 05 11:39 AM ryshay2 wrote:

> SA's own Tyler Durden published original research into the serial
> #s, weights of the silver bars in both SLV and the London ETFS funds.
>
>
> www.zerohedge.com/site...
>
>
> Among his troubling findings were 80 bars with identical weights,
> serial #s, and manufacturers, listed in both the SLV and ETFS, which
> are supposedly warehoused in separate locations.
>
> Things that make you go, hmmm....
>
> 80 bars is too much for normal errors and ommissions in accounting.
>
>
> Where there's smoke, there's fire.

SLV: Is It Solvent?

I still err on the side that the SLV has all they say. At least one company has already been convicted and fined for not having the silver in their scheme. So JP would be walking into a lot of trouble if they didn't claim to have what they have.

There is a bar list to view as well ...

Is Palladium a Good Bet?

I bought a stash of palladium back in October so am pleased with the upside. The Pd mining stocks have done even better - surprisingly considering PAL is not mining a single ounce and SWC could lose their GM contract.

I anticipate holding on for the medium to longer term if palladium tests its old highs.

Gold Doesn’t Care If It’s IN-flation or DE-flation

I wouldn't argue with Jastram on gold and deflation when we had a gold standard but his book ends in 1976 just as gold was left to freely float right up to 2009. That is the period that is most of interest to us and as far as I can see freely floating gold went DOWN during the disinflation of the 1980s and 1990s. I would be interested to see Leyland's conclusions in the republished book as Jastram's analysis is not as relevant to a floating gold environment.

The Silver Indexed Bond

Thanks for the tip, I sent out a general email to 20 primary silver producers/developers and ECU was on the list. They have not replied so far.

Will a 'Silver Bullet' Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?

Jeff,

The ETF makes money in an 0.50% charge as well as charging a fee when they issue/redeem baskets of 50,000 shares for silver. Storage costs are not really that high a factor. Look at goldmoney.com which has an annual storage fee of 0.87% for 50,000 oz or more.

As for doing this for nothing, their annual 2008 report said they earned $14.3M to Dec 31st 2008!


On Jun 04 11:53 AM Jeff Nielson wrote:

>
> To make this sham even more absurd, the same Manipulators who are
> trying to destroy this sector are SUPPOSEDLY buying all the "bullion"
> for ETF's with ZERO premium AND paying all the shipping, insurance,
> and STORAGE costs - THEMSELVES.
>
> Are you really suggesting that bullion-banks would hold bullion ETF's
> at a LOSS to themselves - simply to do a a FAVOR for small retail
> investors, by HELPING them enter this market??
>

Will a 'Silver Bullet' Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?

Now what has the ETFs got to do with the net commercial position in the futures market? The silver in the ETFs are not marked as deliverable against future contracts. If a bank which is short has to deliver silver they cannot dip into the ETF unless shares are sold in the ETF to indirectly release silver to the market.

The commercials have been net short silver for decades and that didn't rock any boats while there was plenty of "just in time" stockpiles. Perhaps it will be different this time but apart from brief backwardation in the futures there is no sign of it! Unless that basis begins to move, I see no trouble ahead. It is not a default that will signal supply problems but rather a rising price.

And remember, the shorts may not have all the silver to deliver, but the longs may not have all the cash to receive either. It's a paper game on both sides of the contract!


On Jun 04 11:53 AM Jeff Nielson wrote:

> Roland, if the same bullion bullion-banks claim to hold almost ALL
> the "bullion" for "bullion-ETF's" AND also have "short" positions
> at least TWICE as large, then it is IRRELEVANT if their ETF custodial
> agreements are audited - when the MUCH larger "short" positions are
> NEVER audited.
>
> To make this sham even more absurd, the same Manipulators who are
> trying to destroy this sector are SUPPOSEDLY buying all the "bullion"
> for ETF's with ZERO premium AND paying all the shipping, insurance,
> and STORAGE costs - THEMSELVES.
>
> Are you really suggesting that bullion-banks would hold bullion ETF's
> at a LOSS to themselves - simply to do a a FAVOR for small retail
> investors, by HELPING them enter this market??
>
> The mere suggestion of this is patently absurd!

Will a 'Silver Bullet' Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?

As I commented in your last article, JP Morgan publish a bar list and audit every delivery coming in to cover issue of new shares. They also do not lend or allow lending of the inventory.

I don't see the problem, are you saying there is NO silver there at all (or as I infer from what you say) only 1/3? How do the storage schemes you regard as legitimate get their silver? I think CEF and GoldMoney have nearly 80 million ounces between them.

Silver Market Fundamentals Distorted by Bullion ETFs

Go to us.ishares.com/product... and click on the top left PDF link which says "Silver Bar List". It's a 6795 page file!


On Jun 01 11:52 AM thotdoc wrote:

> Do you have a reference for the Barclay's list?
>
> Thanks,
>
> G