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  • Silver Market Fundamentals Distorted by Bullion ETFs [View article]
    Go to and click on the top left PDF link which says "Silver Bar List". It's a 6795 page file!

    On Jun 01 11:52 AM thotdoc wrote:

    > Do you have a reference for the Barclay's list?
    > Thanks,
    > G
    Jun 1, 2009. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Myth of Gold Confiscation [View article]
    Did the US government "steal" people's gold? The answer is yes and no. If it was stealing per se, people would have got $0 instead of $20 for the ounces they handed in. It was an exchange albeit forced.

    However, and I may be wrong, most people held coins (I am not sure jewellery was forced to be handed in) and those coins unless foreign were the property of the US government? What the holder of the coin had was the right to $20 for a double eagle and so on.

    As to simply defying the executive order, some who had more than 5oz per person may well have buried their gold. My only question was how they exchanged their gold for cash without getting arrested?

    How much was the dollar devalued by? I guess 60% since gold was still the means of international exchange between countries even if it had now disappeared from public transactions. One would also need to look at exchange rates between other currencies which would further obscure the picture since I suspect some of them went through similar gold devaluations.
    Jun 1, 2009. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Market Fundamentals Distorted by Bullion ETFs [View article]
    Yes, wonder why the numbers are exactly the same but not surprised that they are the same in general - silver demand from industry and jewellery goes down in a recession but it has been balanced by investor demand. However, photography is the swing point here with a massive 20% drop. Not sure how much of recession demand destruction is baked into that 20%.

    I see no reason why the ETFs don't hold the bars. Barclays published a bar list recently.
    Jun 1, 2009. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Myth of Gold Confiscation [View article]
    I can see this issue exemplifies a larger and more important issue - The State versus The People. I used to write for Lew Rockwell - a free market libertarian. I still hold many of those views regarding small government. What we see today is the price of democracy. People will vote away their liberties if it fills their bellies. The pendulum has swung too far to the side of big government but while people can drive their cars, watch TV and eat to their hearts' content at relative peace with their neighbour, they will say "Who cares?".

    That is why a gold standard is useless, government will just drop it at the first inconvenience. What is needed is free market money - competing local currencies which the people can vote for via their wallets. Unfortunately, control of the money supply is the last thing government will ever give up to the people.
    May 29, 2009. 03:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Myth of Gold Confiscation [View article]
    Looks like some of you guys misread my 5 ounce subplot. I am not saying you get to keep only 5oz under a presumed new confiscation, who knows what will happen. But the allocation was 5oz PER PERSON, be it your wife, kids, granny, etc. All depends how much you trust your extended family.

    Besides, what's the gripe? If the government goes back to a gold standard and calls in gold to back up the dollar - isn't that what many gold holders want - so called honest money? Would some of you sacrifice your gold stash for what you in principle have wanted the government to do for years? If you can redeem your dollars for X oz of gold, what's the problem?

    Not that I think a gold standard would work ...
    May 29, 2009. 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future of Cold Fusion Investing [View article]
    Yes, I concur that palladium is a good longer term investment from a supply and inflation point of view. Palladium did well compared with gold and silver during the inflationary 70s. Supply, inflation and cold fusion could be a win-win-win for the metal. For me, the more bullish bullet points the better.

    However, the supply argument I presume held during palladium's rout last year, it failed to protect palladium. I still have a copy of Jerome Smith's "Silver Profits in the 80s" which predicted a new silver bull based on similar supply arguments - it never happened. The accrued stockpiles of the inflationary 1970s flooded the silver market for years to come.

    So we have to be careful here about supply arguments. My report looks at current ETF stockpiles and of course we have the mysterious Russian stockpiles both in Russia and Switzerland. Truth is we don't know how many millions of ounces the Russians have and so far the existing palladium ETFs don't seem to have stressed supply at all and the palladium price rise of 2006-2008 doesn't look significantly different to other commodities price hikes.

    So, any new bullish argument is welcomed by me.
    May 19, 2009. 08:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'W' Shaped Recovery: How to Position Your Portfolio [View article]
    We have our W shaped recovery since equities have been in a bear market since 2000. A double bottom in 2003 and 2009 seems a launch pad to me.
    May 19, 2009. 08:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next? [View article]
    Hmmm, this article implies the price of gold is driven by investor demand. Is that a fact? Last time I looked nearly 3/4 of gold demand was jewellery - far more than investor demand. Surely jewellery demand goes down in a recession and this MUST have a dampening effect on the gold price.

    So, how about this - investor demand for gold is increasing but jewellery demand is decreasing with the net effect that gold is largely down since March 2008. No need for conspiracy theories - just plain economics 101.

    Mar 27, 2009. 01:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • V Bottoms and the Twin-Peaked Bear [View article]
    Well thanks for your comments. The final bottom is approaching, it could be nearer to 500 but that would not appear to be a target that would take long to hit before the rebound.

    I wonder how doom and gloom the punters were back in late 1974? Probably also in depression mode looking for a double digit S&P500. Doesn't matter if it is inflationary or deflationary, all that matters is valuation overshoot. A drop to single digit P/Es is not that far away.

    Mar 16, 2009. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting the Weimar Gold and Silver Ratio [View article]
    The numbers were taken from a Rob Kirby article ( who copied them from another source (may have been Le Metropole Cafe website). I emailed him at the time and he had no reason to doubt the numbers or source.

    Yes, one could argue 160 should be 16 but the politics of that very month makes the ratio leap understandable.

    On Mar 04 06:05 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

    > I am always skeptical about the claim of an extreme gold:silver ratio
    > during the Weimar Republic. Has there any independent verification
    > that such extreme gold:silver ratio did indeed happen?
    > Remember, gold and silver are traded internationally, not just in
    > Weimar Germany. There is NO evidence that gold/silver ratio reached
    > any unusually high numbers. It stays at 16:1 in USA, for example.
    > If gold/silver ratio indeed reached 160:1 in Germany during the time,
    > some one would have made tons of money doing the gold/silver carry
    > trade. Bring gold to Germany and exchange for cheap silver, and bring
    > silver to USA and exchange for cheap gold. No such thing ever happened.
    > Read my take on the coming hyperinflation:
    > I believe the chart you show must came from some historic data recording
    > glitch.
    Mar 5, 2009. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting the Weimar Gold and Silver Ratio [View article]
    You know, I wonder why people buy silver and gold if they believe it is manipulated? It's a sure fire way to lose money by betting against the government. The definition of a conspiracy is that it is done in the dark beyond the public gaze. A few banks publicly shorting silver in extremis is not something done in the dark. More like investment banks knowing silver's propensity to spike up and down at great profit to those who can read the runes.

    Perhaps a clue to silver's price behaviour is more to be gleaned by its high correlation to other metals. You know ... they all go up and down together. Now don't start claiming copper or lead are manipulated as well!

    Mar 4, 2009. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting the Weimar Gold and Silver Ratio [View article]

    Occam's Razor, there are simpler explanations as to why gold may be in a certain price range. Try those first.

    On Mar 04 12:40 PM Onemonzas wrote:

    > 'Either a gold suppression scheme does not exist or it is impotent
    > and therefore not worthy of serious consideration.'
    > Or, (and I favor this one,) the manipulators WANTED gold at the range
    > it's at.
    > Endless speculation as to WHY they did what they did is possible.
    Mar 4, 2009. 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting the Weimar Gold and Silver Ratio [View article]
    Actually, the dollar denominated gold silver ratio went from 16 in 1920 to 100 in 1939. The reason? Gold was fixed and then revalued from $20 to $35 in 1933. Silver crashed during the deflation ($1.23 to $0.23) but recovered when the government began to stockpile it.

    On Mar 04 09:57 AM fubar02 wrote:

    > I wonder what happened to the gold/silver ratio when Roosevelt made
    > it illegal to own gold and refused to buy back American's dollars
    > at 1/20th of an once of gold? Would think that would have made silver
    > very attractive to the average investor.
    Mar 4, 2009. 11:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fresh Look at the Gold / Silver Ratio [View article]
    Gold and silver do not diverge much at all except in rare cases such as when Warren Buffett bought a mountain of silver but no gold.

    Clearly, the GSR can move in silver's favour but silver drops in price which means that silver is outperforming gold on a downturn which is not likely since silver tends to move down faster than gold (as we have seen multiple times).

    So, typically a dropping GSR (bullish for silver) is more likely when silver is rising in price faster than gold.
    Feb 3, 2009. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nortel on the Verge of Filing for Bankruptcy? [View article]
    They just filed for bankruptcy ...
    Jan 14, 2009. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment