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The Silver Analyst

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  • Fundamentals Are in Place for Silver to Move Higher [View article]
    I would emphasis again the US Dollar situation. No dollar drop - no silver rise. It's as simple as that. I too feel the dollar is near some kind of significant bottom so any silver opportunity is in a short time frame.

    If the dollar breaks above its upper channel line, the bets are off and silver could take a big dive.
    Aug 11 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SLV: Is It Solvent? [View article]
    I still err on the side that the SLV has all they say. At least one company has already been convicted and fined for not having the silver in their scheme. So JP would be walking into a lot of trouble if they didn't claim to have what they have.

    There is a bar list to view as well ...
    Aug 5 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Doesn’t Care If It’s IN-flation or DE-flation [View article]
    I wouldn't argue with Jastram on gold and deflation when we had a gold standard but his book ends in 1976 just as gold was left to freely float right up to 2009. That is the period that is most of interest to us and as far as I can see freely floating gold went DOWN during the disinflation of the 1980s and 1990s. I would be interested to see Leyland's conclusions in the republished book as Jastram's analysis is not as relevant to a floating gold environment.
    Jul 1 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silver Indexed Bond [View article]
    Thanks for the tip, I sent out a general email to 20 primary silver producers/developers and ECU was on the list. They have not replied so far.
    Jul 1 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Market Fundamentals Distorted by Bullion ETFs [View article]
    Go to and click on the top left PDF link which says "Silver Bar List". It's a 6795 page file!

    On Jun 01 11:52 AM thotdoc wrote:

    > Do you have a reference for the Barclay's list?
    > Thanks,
    > G
    Jun 1 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Myth of Gold Confiscation [View article]
    Did the US government "steal" people's gold? The answer is yes and no. If it was stealing per se, people would have got $0 instead of $20 for the ounces they handed in. It was an exchange albeit forced.

    However, and I may be wrong, most people held coins (I am not sure jewellery was forced to be handed in) and those coins unless foreign were the property of the US government? What the holder of the coin had was the right to $20 for a double eagle and so on.

    As to simply defying the executive order, some who had more than 5oz per person may well have buried their gold. My only question was how they exchanged their gold for cash without getting arrested?

    How much was the dollar devalued by? I guess 60% since gold was still the means of international exchange between countries even if it had now disappeared from public transactions. One would also need to look at exchange rates between other currencies which would further obscure the picture since I suspect some of them went through similar gold devaluations.
    Jun 1 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • V Bottoms and the Twin-Peaked Bear [View article]
    Well thanks for your comments. The final bottom is approaching, it could be nearer to 500 but that would not appear to be a target that would take long to hit before the rebound.

    I wonder how doom and gloom the punters were back in late 1974? Probably also in depression mode looking for a double digit S&P500. Doesn't matter if it is inflationary or deflationary, all that matters is valuation overshoot. A drop to single digit P/Es is not that far away.

    Mar 16 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nortel on the Verge of Filing for Bankruptcy? [View article]
    They just filed for bankruptcy ...
    Jan 14 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver's Extremes: When Is the Right Time to Get In? [View article]
    Regarding production cost .. what do YOU mean? Different companies have different production costs depending on multiple factors.

    In fact, since global silver production is 70% by- or co- product, I suggest it is the production cost of gold, copper, lead, etc that is more important.

    To summarise, production cost of silver is largely irrelevant to targetting a silver price bottom.

    Nov 25 05:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver's Extremes: When Is the Right Time to Get In? [View article]
    What is the reader not to "fall for"?

    That I said silver was near a major bottom having kept subscribers out since $18 while other kept getting sliced trying to catch the falling knife?

    Or was it because I had the audacity to suggest any big move up would just be a rally?

    Listen to me.

    There are a lot of wounded investors out there who have seen their capital destroyed plus anyone who feels flush will find leverage more expensive than it was a year ago. Feel free to urge them to recommit more of their diminished savings to another rollercoaster ride.

    After this rout, investor psychology has a bit of healing to undergo.
    Nov 25 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rebirth of Gold and Silver? [View article]

    Silver may be at a similar point to 1974-1975 but in K-wave terms, would you agree it is still somewhere in the equivalent of the 1950s?
    Sep 12 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rebirth of Gold and Silver? [View article]
    Thanks, I follow twocents for the K-wave aspects. No need to bash on Elliott Wave, this was my unwavered position for nearly two years when silver was still in the smaller wave 4 correction in 2007: one more wave (5) up then the big correction.

    Sep 11 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver ETF Bull Market Remains Intact [View article]
    "SLV has been in a bull market since 2001"

    SLV did not exist until 2006.
    Aug 23 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Haven Investments Amid a Global Crisis [View article]
    My long term chart of platinum does not show a plunge from $500 to $100 in 1988. Perhaps you mean a $100 drop?
    Aug 14 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death of Gold? [View article]
    Yes, I sold my speculative positions and some ounces but still retain a core position which is a long term buy and hold.

    This is not the "death of gold" as I wrote in the sense that we enter another 20 year bear. No, but I am wary that this 7 year bull is long in the tooth and a correction bigger than we have seen so far will pounce.

    So be cautious about your confidence. The bull isn't over in this 30 year bull market, but corrections happen, sometimes bigger than we expect.
    Apr 22 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment