The Silver Analyst

NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next?

Hmmm, this article implies the price of gold is driven by investor demand. Is that a fact? Last time I looked nearly 3/4 of gold demand was jewellery - far more than investor demand. Surely jewellery demand goes down in a recession and this MUST have a dampening effect on the gold price.

So, how about this - investor demand for gold is increasing but jewellery demand is decreasing with the net effect that gold is largely down since March 2008. No need for conspiracy theories - just plain economics 101.

The Rebirth of Gold and Silver?

Deuxsous,

Silver may be at a similar point to 1974-1975 but in K-wave terms, would you agree it is still somewhere in the equivalent of the 1950s?

The Rebirth of Gold and Silver?

Thanks, I follow twocents for the K-wave aspects. No need to bash on Elliott Wave, this was my unwavered position for nearly two years when silver was still in the smaller wave 4 correction in 2007: one more wave (5) up then the big correction.

The Death of Gold?

""Look for a new "death of equities" headline, combined with your friend TELLING you to buy gold & silver (not asking, but telling), and advising you to buy some hot silver/gold mines which surely can only go up...that would be the top."

Did that even happen at the height of the 1970s bull? I doubt it.

The Death of Gold?

Yes, I sold my speculative positions and some ounces but still retain a core position which is a long term buy and hold.

This is not the "death of gold" as I wrote in the sense that we enter another 20 year bear. No, but I am wary that this 7 year bull is long in the tooth and a correction bigger than we have seen so far will pounce.

So be cautious about your confidence. The bull isn't over in this 30 year bull market, but corrections happen, sometimes bigger than we expect.

Silver Now Outperforming Gold

EE, I have read Butler extensively. No need to check out the top shorts. The net commercial short position which Butler USES as proof of a manipulation clearly declined months before the last spike in 2006. The top shorts may have tried to maintain their big short positions (proof?) but they were fighting against a tide of short covering.

Silver Now Outperforming Gold

I am not saying a blow off at $20, I said "$20 and beyond". You can forget about $200, that is years away and requires an inflation crisis similar to 1980 (which will come don't worry!).

Silver Now Outperforming Gold

Also remember the 16:1 ratio wa a government decree for centuries. Since WWII, 16:1 has only been touched twice.

Silver Now Outperforming Gold

Look at the charts for 2004 and 2006, run ups in silver cannot be sustained for anything but months! Don't hang onto the talismans of 1980, it is not written in the skies that silver MUST beat $50!

Value of Gold Over the Ages

"Just look at the performance of gold during our last deflation in the Great Depression"

Gold did nothing until 1933 - it was fixed by government decree at $20 per ounce. Roosevelt then inflated the money supply and gold was refixed to $35 in a day! Pity no one could profit from it since he simultaneously banned private ownership of gold.

Value of Gold Over the Ages

I think it was on the Daily Telegraph on a recent GATA email. Don't know where they got it from.

In Defense of Peak Gold: Evidence Gold Production Peaked in 2001

Thanks for the clarification, David.

Undersea mining will be as much the way ahead for gold as it was for oil. I just don't see it halting a long term decline in gold production. Nevertheless, it is an exciting prospect for the next phase of gold mining.