The Silver Analyst

Seeking Silver's Unique Fundamental

100 years is 2 million tons of silver underground. Not even the USGS uneconomic resource base comes close to that and their study is meant to cover all deposits.

Where did you get your numbers from?


On Sep 27 09:43 AM secmaven wrote:

> If we add the silver reserves associated with copper, gold, nickel,
> etc. mining to the straight silver mines we will find that there
> is enough silver still in the ground to support current production
> for 100 years. Add to this the vast stores of silver above ground
> in the form of obsolete coinage that has not been melted such as
> the hordes sitting in India and the realization hits home...the world
> is awash in silver.

Fundamentals Are in Place for Silver to Move Higher

I would emphasis again the US Dollar situation. No dollar drop - no silver rise. It's as simple as that. I too feel the dollar is near some kind of significant bottom so any silver opportunity is in a short time frame.

If the dollar breaks above its upper channel line, the bets are off and silver could take a big dive.

SLV: Is It Solvent?

Thanks for the link. Well, I don't own any ETFs - just in hand bullion and mining shares. So an ETF failure would be to my advantage though I don't think it will happen.


On Aug 05 11:39 AM ryshay2 wrote:

> SA's own Tyler Durden published original research into the serial
> #s, weights of the silver bars in both SLV and the London ETFS funds.
>
>
> www.zerohedge.com/site...
>
>
> Among his troubling findings were 80 bars with identical weights,
> serial #s, and manufacturers, listed in both the SLV and ETFS, which
> are supposedly warehoused in separate locations.
>
> Things that make you go, hmmm....
>
> 80 bars is too much for normal errors and ommissions in accounting.
>
>
> Where there's smoke, there's fire.

SLV: Is It Solvent?

I still err on the side that the SLV has all they say. At least one company has already been convicted and fined for not having the silver in their scheme. So JP would be walking into a lot of trouble if they didn't claim to have what they have.

There is a bar list to view as well ...

The Silver Indexed Bond

Thanks for the tip, I sent out a general email to 20 primary silver producers/developers and ECU was on the list. They have not replied so far.

Will a 'Silver Bullet' Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?

Jeff,

The ETF makes money in an 0.50% charge as well as charging a fee when they issue/redeem baskets of 50,000 shares for silver. Storage costs are not really that high a factor. Look at goldmoney.com which has an annual storage fee of 0.87% for 50,000 oz or more.

As for doing this for nothing, their annual 2008 report said they earned $14.3M to Dec 31st 2008!


On Jun 04 11:53 AM Jeff Nielson wrote:

>
> To make this sham even more absurd, the same Manipulators who are
> trying to destroy this sector are SUPPOSEDLY buying all the "bullion"
> for ETF's with ZERO premium AND paying all the shipping, insurance,
> and STORAGE costs - THEMSELVES.
>
> Are you really suggesting that bullion-banks would hold bullion ETF's
> at a LOSS to themselves - simply to do a a FAVOR for small retail
> investors, by HELPING them enter this market??
>

Will a 'Silver Bullet' Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?

Now what has the ETFs got to do with the net commercial position in the futures market? The silver in the ETFs are not marked as deliverable against future contracts. If a bank which is short has to deliver silver they cannot dip into the ETF unless shares are sold in the ETF to indirectly release silver to the market.

The commercials have been net short silver for decades and that didn't rock any boats while there was plenty of "just in time" stockpiles. Perhaps it will be different this time but apart from brief backwardation in the futures there is no sign of it! Unless that basis begins to move, I see no trouble ahead. It is not a default that will signal supply problems but rather a rising price.

And remember, the shorts may not have all the silver to deliver, but the longs may not have all the cash to receive either. It's a paper game on both sides of the contract!


On Jun 04 11:53 AM Jeff Nielson wrote:

> Roland, if the same bullion bullion-banks claim to hold almost ALL
> the "bullion" for "bullion-ETF's" AND also have "short" positions
> at least TWICE as large, then it is IRRELEVANT if their ETF custodial
> agreements are audited - when the MUCH larger "short" positions are
> NEVER audited.
>
> To make this sham even more absurd, the same Manipulators who are
> trying to destroy this sector are SUPPOSEDLY buying all the "bullion"
> for ETF's with ZERO premium AND paying all the shipping, insurance,
> and STORAGE costs - THEMSELVES.
>
> Are you really suggesting that bullion-banks would hold bullion ETF's
> at a LOSS to themselves - simply to do a a FAVOR for small retail
> investors, by HELPING them enter this market??
>
> The mere suggestion of this is patently absurd!

Will a 'Silver Bullet' Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?

As I commented in your last article, JP Morgan publish a bar list and audit every delivery coming in to cover issue of new shares. They also do not lend or allow lending of the inventory.

I don't see the problem, are you saying there is NO silver there at all (or as I infer from what you say) only 1/3? How do the storage schemes you regard as legitimate get their silver? I think CEF and GoldMoney have nearly 80 million ounces between them.

Silver Market Fundamentals Distorted by Bullion ETFs

Go to us.ishares.com/product... and click on the top left PDF link which says "Silver Bar List". It's a 6795 page file!


On Jun 01 11:52 AM thotdoc wrote:

> Do you have a reference for the Barclay's list?
>
> Thanks,
>
> G

Silver Market Fundamentals Distorted by Bullion ETFs

Yes, wonder why the numbers are exactly the same but not surprised that they are the same in general - silver demand from industry and jewellery goes down in a recession but it has been balanced by investor demand. However, photography is the swing point here with a massive 20% drop. Not sure how much of recession demand destruction is baked into that 20%.

I see no reason why the ETFs don't hold the bars. Barclays published a bar list recently.

V Bottoms and the Twin-Peaked Bear

Well thanks for your comments. The final bottom is approaching, it could be nearer to 500 but that would not appear to be a target that would take long to hit before the rebound.

I wonder how doom and gloom the punters were back in late 1974? Probably also in depression mode looking for a double digit S&P500. Doesn't matter if it is inflationary or deflationary, all that matters is valuation overshoot. A drop to single digit P/Es is not that far away.

Revisiting the Weimar Gold and Silver Ratio

The numbers were taken from a Rob Kirby article (www.safehaven.com/arti...) who copied them from another source (may have been Le Metropole Cafe website). I emailed him at the time and he had no reason to doubt the numbers or source.

Yes, one could argue 160 should be 16 but the politics of that very month makes the ratio leap understandable.


On Mar 04 06:05 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

> I am always skeptical about the claim of an extreme gold:silver ratio
> during the Weimar Republic. Has there any independent verification
> that such extreme gold:silver ratio did indeed happen?
>
> Remember, gold and silver are traded internationally, not just in
> Weimar Germany. There is NO evidence that gold/silver ratio reached
> any unusually high numbers. It stays at 16:1 in USA, for example.
> If gold/silver ratio indeed reached 160:1 in Germany during the time,
> some one would have made tons of money doing the gold/silver carry
> trade. Bring gold to Germany and exchange for cheap silver, and bring
> silver to USA and exchange for cheap gold. No such thing ever happened.
>
>
> Read my take on the coming hyperinflation:
> tinyurl.com/d25abb
>
> I believe the chart you show must came from some historic data recording
> glitch.

Revisiting the Weimar Gold and Silver Ratio

You know, I wonder why people buy silver and gold if they believe it is manipulated? It's a sure fire way to lose money by betting against the government. The definition of a conspiracy is that it is done in the dark beyond the public gaze. A few banks publicly shorting silver in extremis is not something done in the dark. More like investment banks knowing silver's propensity to spike up and down at great profit to those who can read the runes.

Perhaps a clue to silver's price behaviour is more to be gleaned by its high correlation to other metals. You know ... they all go up and down together. Now don't start claiming copper or lead are manipulated as well!

Revisiting the Weimar Gold and Silver Ratio

Occam's Razor, there are simpler explanations as to why gold may be in a certain price range. Try those first.




On Mar 04 12:40 PM Onemonzas wrote:

> 'Either a gold suppression scheme does not exist or it is impotent
> and therefore not worthy of serious consideration.'
>
> Or, (and I favor this one,) the manipulators WANTED gold at the range
> it's at.
>
> Endless speculation as to WHY they did what they did is possible.

Revisiting the Weimar Gold and Silver Ratio

Actually, the dollar denominated gold silver ratio went from 16 in 1920 to 100 in 1939. The reason? Gold was fixed and then revalued from $20 to $35 in 1933. Silver crashed during the deflation ($1.23 to $0.23) but recovered when the government began to stockpile it.



On Mar 04 09:57 AM fubar02 wrote:

> I wonder what happened to the gold/silver ratio when Roosevelt made
> it illegal to own gold and refused to buy back American's dollars
> at 1/20th of an once of gold? Would think that would have made silver
> very attractive to the average investor.