Seeking Alpha

The Silver Analyst's  Instablog

The Silver Analyst
Send Message
The Gold and Silver Analyst authors articles on gold and silver at his website (http://www.goldandsilveranalyst.blogspot.com/), focusing precious metals from both a fundamental and technical point of view. Visit his site: The Gold and Silver Analyst (http://www.goldandsilveranalyst.blogspot.com/).
My blog:
The Gold and Silver Analyst
  • Has Silver Topped Out?

    I give some hopefully compelling reasons why, check out my blog!
    Dec 12 2:15 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • US Dollar Set To Rally

    Gold and especially silver have had a great run since August as the US Dollar gets talked down more – especially by its own regulators in the form of the Federal Reserve. Obviously nothing goes straight up and the precious metals will take a breather in this final leg of the multiyear bull market.

     

    Various reasons can be given for that but one graph in particular should give metal bulls pause for thought. It is the weekly graph of the US Dollar Index and as you can see, the dollar has reached a major level of support on the lower trend line. Now it may keep going down and it will in due time to the next level of support at the all time low of 70.



    That trend line is currently at 76 and the dollar briefly spent three days below this line but has now crept back above it and technicians will take this as a sign to sell some of their gold/silver positions but hold the core for the next major leg which breaks the dollar into the unknown territory of the 60s level.

     

    As I write silver has not surprisingly sold off on this event and I anticipate a period of volatility for gold and silver in the weeks ahead. The precious metals bull market nevertheless remains in place.

     

    Further analysis of precious metals can be had by going to our blog at http://goldandsilveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can learn about more about our analysis. Comments and questions are also invited via email to silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk.


     




    Disclosure: long silver and gold
    Nov 09 3:55 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Silver topping out?

    Silver is pushing $18, gold has made new all time nominal highs and it all appears to be looking good for The Great Leap Forward. Buyers are piling in fearful of having to buy at higher prices and gold and silver look moon bound. Meanwhile I am now all cash in my trading account and have sold silver bullion as well (for my trading account of course). Yet I believe silver will make new highs and approach the highs not seen since January 1980. Am I insane? No, just bearish medium term and bullish long term. The graph below explains my shorter term fears.







    The basic question is how long do silver price runs last? Do they go on forever? Obviously not. The chart shows that since March 2003 where we place the start of this 10+ year bull market, there have been six good price runs in silver. They lasted for a range of 7 to 12 months before either spectacularly crashing or entering a grinding period of consolidation. The average period was 8.8 months and this price run since late October 2008 has lasted 11 months.

     

    Call it a hunch but going by the historical price hints, this price run is very long in the tooth and either due to A) crash spectacularly or B) enter a grinding period of consolidation. By some strange coincidence, what could happen next is the subject of our latest newsletter.

     

    Don’t be soothed by people talking about “healthy corrections”. Silver is a volatile commodity that unlike gold blows hot and cold – very hot and cold. I don’t think there will be anything healthy about the next few months (unless you think electric shock therapy is a healthy medical procedure).

     

    Now you might send me an all capitals email saying “this time it is different”. Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet against recent history. When the price crash/grind ends, sell your mother for silver and silver stocks. Okay, maybe not that extreme but you get the point?

    Further analysis of silver can be had by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can obtain a free issue of The Silver Analyst and learn about subscription details. Comments and questions are also invited via email to silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk.

     

    Oct 19 1:12 PM | Link | 3 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

Latest Comments


Most Commented
  1. Silver topping out? (3 Comments)
  2. Has Silver Topped Out? (2 Comments)
  3. Silver Still Critical (1 Comment)
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.