Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
Matt,
It looks like an interesting article and I look forward to reading it tonight, but within the first 3 paragraphs I was struck by this thought ... wouldn't the end of the deadliest, costliest conflict history has ever known help to improve investor sentiment somewhat???? Thus supporting equity markets even in the face of recession? A short-term recession related to decreased demand from the military industrial complex is an afterthought when investors once again have complete assurance of the ongoing survival of the free world.
New York & Co.: Buy This Turnaround Story Before Everyone Else Does [View article]
It is a strong report but I have a couple issues: Revenue growth of 10% per year still seems rather aggressive given sales per sqft, yoy comparable store sales, and net sales all grew at much less than this clip over the past 3 years and given that the business ahd difficulty maintaining 10% revenue growth pre-2009 when it was opening what turned out to be a glut of new stores. What exactly is expected to drive this revenue growth?
By extension, a P/E multiple of 16x or more again seems aggressive.
Also, did you account for the 2-3% drag of the share dilution?
Lots Of Real Estate Value At Assisted Living Concepts [View article]
Great analysis. Looks like a good opportunity.
Question: You say "most" of their locations are rural. How much is "most"? Just how "rural" are they? The more rural the facility the lower the price it could fetch presumably. Can we be sure that the facilities owned by ALC are of as high quality in terms of location and other factors as the those other purchases you've referenced?
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
All fair points. Again, I am not arguing that Canadian real estate prices will continue on their current trend. I am arguing that they will not suffer a 35% collapse like that incurred in the US, because of several mitigating factors that I outlined.
The first few points you make there are all reasons why sales have slowed in the months following the CMHC changes.
As for Price-to-rent ratios: again, as I outlined, comparing these values across time is not a fair comparison because they do not account for declining interest rates. I bet if you were to look at Price-to-Net Operating income ratios, which incorporate interest payments, you would find that the current average does not deviate from the historical average by such a large degree.
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
To be clear, I'm not recommending anyone load up on Canadian real estate. There are clearly better investments out there, including US real estate. I am arguing that the Canadian real estate market (and by extension the Canadian economy) is unlikely to suffer a titanic collapse a la US real estate in 2007/2008.
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
True. so if interest rates fall dramatically and incomes are stable to increasing slightly ...... prices can float upwards without defying gravity. Gravity gets a little less powerful.
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
Great points. The key here is what will cause a string of defaults? The US housing market collapsed under the weight of its own leverage. Unless rates spike higher, thats unlikely to happen in Canada.
Plus, the spiral in the US was compounded and magnified by the uncertainty over government backing of the banks. The US economy plunged because of fear of what was happening with the banks, not out of fear of what was happening with the housing market.
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
That's great insight and it's pretty much what I expected. As I understand it, the vast majority of purchases by immigrants or other international investors/owners are made with alot of equity into the proptery, so a decline in prices is less likely to precipitate a vicious cycle of foreclosures.
Granted, there might be a bit of panic selling to protect their equity, but there will also be alot that are comfortable with the shor-term decline.
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
RIght. The US crash made it obvious that the freewheeling policies would lead to disaster and the Canadian governmetn was able to rein in their policies before leverage got out of hand.
Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
It looks like an interesting article and I look forward to reading it tonight, but within the first 3 paragraphs I was struck by this thought ... wouldn't the end of the deadliest, costliest conflict history has ever known help to improve investor sentiment somewhat???? Thus supporting equity markets even in the face of recession? A short-term recession related to decreased demand from the military industrial complex is an afterthought when investors once again have complete assurance of the ongoing survival of the free world.
New York & Co.: Buy This Turnaround Story Before Everyone Else Does [View article]
By extension, a P/E multiple of 16x or more again seems aggressive.
Also, did you account for the 2-3% drag of the share dilution?
New Jersey Resources: Superstorm Creates A Superb Opportunity [View article]
Canadian Oil Sands: Analyzing And Valuing The Oil Sands Operator - Part II [View article]
Lots Of Real Estate Value At Assisted Living Concepts [View article]
Question: You say "most" of their locations are rural. How much is "most"? Just how "rural" are they? The more rural the facility the lower the price it could fetch presumably. Can we be sure that the facilities owned by ALC are of as high quality in terms of location and other factors as the those other purchases you've referenced?
The Canadian Banks And The Pre-Emptive Bailout [View article]
I agree that Alberta is in the best shape now but the bloom may be off the wild rose and their economy has the further to to fall.
The Canadian Banks And The Pre-Emptive Bailout [View article]
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
The first few points you make there are all reasons why sales have slowed in the months following the CMHC changes.
As for Price-to-rent ratios: again, as I outlined, comparing these values across time is not a fair comparison because they do not account for declining interest rates. I bet if you were to look at Price-to-Net Operating income ratios, which incorporate interest payments, you would find that the current average does not deviate from the historical average by such a large degree.
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
Plus, the spiral in the US was compounded and magnified by the uncertainty over government backing of the banks. The US economy plunged because of fear of what was happening with the banks, not out of fear of what was happening with the housing market.
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]
Granted, there might be a bit of panic selling to protect their equity, but there will also be alot that are comfortable with the shor-term decline.
Canadian Housing: It Actually Is Different This Time [View article]